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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/24/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:34
Nola has exceptional command of his curve both in the zone and out of it. Which means he can use it to get early strikes, and then to get later swings
Saw yesterday that Nola has the highest first-pitch curve rate of any starter in the bigs. And his first-pitch *strike* rate is through the roof. He's amazing
9:35
A stat for you I couldn't possibly love any more: Nola's curveball right now has a 46% out-of-zone swing rate. It has a 41% in-zone swing rate
Tim
9:36
Who has to go on waivers to be traded? Like, people generally just talk about the biggest player in a waiver trade, and who he was claimed by or if he cleared, but the player(s) he was traded for also had to clear waivers, or be claimed by that team, right? I guess my question is, is it only guys on the active or 40-man roster who have to go on waivers to be traded after July 31st? Can prospects and minor leaguers still be traded without going on waivers?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
"However, in order to deal a player on its 40-man roster after that date, a team must go through the waiver system."
9:38
Basically, all 40-man players have to go through waivers. All others don't
Bo
9:39
Who would be in the Braves' playoff rotation should they make the NLDS? Who would start a one-game WC?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
Foltynewicz is the Braves' best starter. It always depends on matchups, but he's the favorite to start Game 1, or a one-game playoff
9:41
If you assume Foltynewicz/Newcomb/Gausman, then you're basically just choosing between Sanchez and Teheran, were a series to get that far. I'd lean toward Sanchez unless I were given a compelling reason to go in another direction
9:42
Sanchez has just been better than Teheran this year, but maybe you decide to go with Teheran because Sanchez has recent experience pitching out of the bullpen. Could even become a potential tandem-starter thing
Brian Snits
9:44
Thoughts on Sean Newcomb's retaliatory drilling of Brian Anderson after Acuna was hit (yet again) by the Marlins with an up and in fastball?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
I'm just catching up on this now, since I was focused on other baseball things last night
9:46
I don't see any intent on this most recent Acuna HBP -- Guerra was already ahead 0-and-2, and when Guerra has two-strike counts he throws a *lot* of high fastballs
9:47
The idea of intentionally hitting someone in an 0-and-2 count is borderline evil. Far worse than intentionally hitting someone at 0-and-0. I think Guerra just missed
Totally makes sense, though, that the Braves would be upset. Anderson was hit and Realmuto was brushed back. That's just how this usually goes
9:48
Of course it seems objectively silly from an outsider's perspective, but from the dugout, you like to see your pitcher standing up for a teammate. It's going to be a long, long time before baseball players settle on a different means of meting out justice
9:49
I feel like the Braves should be content to just be where they are, in first place and defeating the Marlins on the regular. They don't need to drag themselves down to the Marlins' level. But this is perfectly normal
9:50
Violent and normal
stever20
9:50
The Cardinal/Dodger series- was that more about the Cardinals or the Dodgers in your opinion?    Cards look scary right now.....
Jeff Sullivan
9:51
Right now, the Dodgers look lost, and the Cardinals look unbeatable
A month ago, the Cardinals looked lost, and the Dodgers looked unbeatable
9:52
The Dodgers opened July by going 16-7. The Cardinals lost more than they won. Things have shifted of late but there's zero reason to believe the current state is any more permanent than the state from before
9:53
The Cardinals/Dodgers series wound up defined by the Dodgers' inability to perform in the clutch. Of course, the Cardinals were right there on the other end of that, but it was a nearly-even series determined by timing
9:54
I don't know if Kenley Jansen came back too soon -- impossible for me to have the answer to that -- but the narrative has already been written
GSon
9:54
Who claimed Billy Hamilton?..
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
No way for me to know that, but he'd be a fit on just about any single contender in either league
9:55
The Cubs traded a week or two ago for Terrance freaking Gore
Matt
9:56
Why is Seranthony Dominguez terrible now?  This goes beyond just pitching on back to back nights now. See the walk off given to Nats.
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
I don't know if this is a proper explanation, but as the season has gone on, Dominguez has thrown his slider harder and harder, and it's been getting less and less movement
10:00
That wouldn't be the problem itself; that would be a symptom of something else
I had a delay there because I was doing some really quick research
The slider has changed and it's been thrown more often out of the zone. So hitters have been more able to look for a fastball *in* the zone
10:02
Going to guess this is something mechanical but I don't have time to investigate that on the fly. I feel like this chat is already moving slow enough
squeeze bunt
10:02
This might be the wrong chat for this, but is a short stride something that is fixable/changeable with pitchers?  Is it something you would even want to change or would there be injury risk?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
I think it's something you think about changing at lower levels. By the time someone gets to the bigs, that pitcher has already been selected for possessing excellent skills. The stride is just part of it
You'll make changes if you notice a pitcher's stride changing from where it's been before, but most of what you'll see in the bigs is just tweaking a pitcher's stride *direction*
10:04
Some guys have long strides, like Tyler Glasnow. Some guys have short strides, like Tyson Ross or Brad Hand. I haven't seen that change very often at all at the MLB level
Whitty
10:05
What's your take on Marco Gonzales? He was great in the 1st half and has been dreadful in the 2nd half, but the peripherals still sort of like him. What should the Mariners expect from him going forward?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07
On the one hand, there's every reason to believe Gonzales would be getting tired by now
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