Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/26/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:49
I think he works as a No. 3. Really enjoys having a good catcher and defense
carrotjuice
9:49
Who do you think should win the AL ROY?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
This is probably one of those things I'm not supposed to disclose since this is my first year as a voter and I get that very award
Let's say that the very obvious Nomar Mazara pick is no longer the very obvious pick
Outta my way, Gyorkass
9:51
Of the NL rebuilders (I'd include AL teams here too, but I'm not convinced any of them are actually committing to a rebuild), in what order do you think CIN, MIL, ATL, PHI, and SD return to legitimate playoff contention?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
Phillies, Brewers, pause, pause, pause, pause, Padres, Braves, Reds
Lars
9:53
Who looks more like a Keebler elf, Justin Turner or Grant Brisbee?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Turner
TF Fredrik
9:54
Watched Zach Britton Monday. Um, his sinker was 95+ and I saw the movement of a two seamer, splitter, slider, & cutter. He only uses one grip for that pitch right? How the hell does he get that variety of movement with one grip?
Someone
9:54
How many starts would Kershaw need to get in form for October?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
Three?
The Boat
9:56
Is Ivan Nova getting Happed right now? Does get paid that kind of dough this winter? Should we start calling him Ivan Hova?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
Yeah, the Pirates have basically just had Nova throw everything in the strike zone. The repertoire isn't overwhelming but good counts help everybody. Nova has a more recent injury history than Happ but I bet he'll find similar terms if this keeps up
Erik
9:56
Isn't the Ellis-Ruiz deal effectively a clubhouse guy for a clubhouse guy? And why would you give up the clubhouse guy who already has established relationships with your team?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Because you strongly believe the other clubhouse guy is better on the field
It's still weird though. And the best guess is that the Dodgers agreed to include Ellis just because they were going to be out of 40-man spots
TF Fredrik
9:57
Do you think Maddon will use Chapman differently in the playoffs?
Jeff Sullivan
9:58
Depends a little on the health of the rest of his relievers
9:59
It is worth noting that Chapman this year has already made a few appearances of more than one inning
10:00
Come playoff time, roles tend to collapse and managers get more aggressive. Maddon won't be cautious with his best arms
Greg
10:02
If you had to create a pitcher who's K/9 is double his BB/9, what mix would you want? One caveat: he also allows 1HR/9.
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Give me the maximum. 27 K/9, 13.5 BB/9
At those rates, you'd have a pitcher with a 3.09 FIP. If, instead, you had...9 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9, the pitcher's FIP would be 4.09
Bob Pollard
10:05
Do you think that Lester's base-throwing yips/lack of the ability to hold runners is a big deal? He's had a long, successful career despite this, mainly due to being good a run prevention, but it did hurt that one time vs. KC in the playoffs. Should Cubs fans be making a bigger deal out of it, or is it just not that big of a deal?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
For whatever reason things have gotten better -- last year Lester allowed 44 steals in 55 attempts, and this year he's at 22 in 32. David Ross has helped. Last year, Lester had -5 stolen-base runs; this year he's at -2.
10:07
It's very clearly something exploitable. If, like, Lester kept putting Trea Turner on base, that would work against him. But baserunners can't score unless the guys at the plate do something, and Lester is good about controlling them. And running against him simply isn't automatic
The Royals game was a worst-case scenario -- Lester at his worst, with a bad defensive catcher, against the most aggressive running team in the league
JON
10:09
What is Tyler Naquin's true talent? .300BA .600 SLG%? I know that CLE is platooning him.
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
Opponents have definitely found something in there in August. He makes good contact, but he also swings through the ball a lot and he'll go out of the zone. I see him more like a .260 hitter who slugs around .475
Jamie Sayer
10:11
The wrist injury the main cause for Jake Lamb's 2nd half slump, are pitchers figuring him out and he's trying to make adjustments, or is it a combination of both / something else?
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
Early Lamb was an extreme over-achiever. He's still hitting the ball pretty hard but his results have regressed heavily.
A plot in there suggests that Lamb was due for this, in a way
jon
10:13
Odds of Jake Arrieta repeat for Cy Young?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
25%? Needs a really strong September
Outta my way, Gyorkass
10:15
Regarding minor league affiliations - how feasible is it for an MLB owner to grab control of a particular MiLB team and move it to wherever he pleases? Assume the preferred desitination city is one of fairly decent size and is willing to go in on a stadium and all that.
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
A few years ago the Padres ownership bought the Portland Beavers with the intention of moving them to Escondido. Stadium negotiations fell through, though, and Escondido never got that team, and now the team is based in El Paso
10:16
Now, granted, you provided the assumption that stadium talks work out. So it's not *unfeasible*. But you need a team to be up for sale, and you need a market that makes sense and doesn't already have a team.
t
10:18
Odubel Herrera is one of the Phillies' bright spots to have dimmed as the season goes on. Have pitchers just realized he isn't that great so maybe they should stop walking him?
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