JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/26/16

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 8/26/16

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Jeff Sullivan

10:18

Basically, yeah. Herrera has seen more strikes, and that was always going to happen, because he isn't that dangerous.

10:19

Way back when Herrera was walking all the time I heard from a Phillies guy that they didn't know what was happening. They didn't understand why pitchers weren't just working in the zone. It was fun while it lasted but Herrera was never going to be a big walker because of his discipline

TF Fredrik

10:20

When playoff time comes, if Heyward hasn’t shown any signs of improving with the bat, is it better to have his defense in for 7 or so innings then pinch hit, or for him to come in as defensive replacement?

Jeff Sullivan

10:20

Maybe you start him against righties, and have him on the bench as a potential replacement against lefties

Bork

10:21

What's happened to Estrada can you help him please please. SOS.

Jeff Sullivan

10:21

Turns out maybe Marco Estrada isn't a Cy Young pitcher

lunch

10:22

freddie freeman currently has 4.2 WAR. the braves as a team are currently listed as having a total of 4 WAR. i am not a mathematician, but i think that roughly translates to "holy crap the rest of that team is bad."

Jeff Sullivan

10:22

Hey now, let's be fair, that 4 WAR is just for the position players

Oh, right, that barely helps

10:23

On the plus side, Matt Kemp is at -0.1 WAR through 100 plate appearances

10:23

Is there any real chance of Sanchez being a legit AL CY winner?

Jeff Sullivan

10:24

I think so, yeah, if his innings don't drop off *too* much. And if he keeps his ERA under 3, that's visually appealing, even if it's under only by a hair

JON

10:24

Where did Hernan Perez come from? Has he made a real improvement or just a hot streak?

Jeff Sullivan

10:25

He's been on my list but he's not high-profile enough for me to have already written about. He is legitimately improved, I think -- he's hitting the ball harder. He's a good find and he's helpful on the bases. He's still not great, and he won't become great, but he's a strong utility guy or semi-regular

Outta my way, Gyorkass

10:26

Predict the Cubbiest way for the Billy Goat Curse to manifest itself in 2016

Jeff Sullivan

10:26

I don't know about the Cubbiest way, but the most satisfying way would be for Aroldis Chapman to blow Game 7

Cory

10:27

Is Matt Boyd a guy or will his HR issues prevent him from ever being a good SP?

Jeff Sullivan

10:28

I like Boyd just fine. He's brought his minor-league strikes to the majors. He's a No. 4 now who could become a No. 3

Erik

10:28

With the Phillies and Braves on the way up, will the NL East be the toughest division in a few years? Or will the Marlins and maybe the Mets simply replace them at the bottom?

Jeff Sullivan

10:29

Long way to go. The Phillies and the Braves are still bad, and the Marlins are hard to trust. The Mets are built around a fragile core

If anything I think the NL Central continues to profile as a beast

Pat

10:29

How bad is Votto defensively? He seems like he should be an average first basemen in the field, but stinks according to the defense stats.

Jeff Sullivan

10:30

Votto has rated as a fine defensive first baseman every single season but this one. I don't know why he would've suddenly fallen off so I assume he's at least average today

Josh

10:31

How surprised were you that Bochy let Moore stay out there for 130+ pitches to go for the no-hitter, and do you think it was the right decision?

Jeff Sullivan

10:31

I'm sure you remember that Tim Lincecum was left out there for 148 pitches in his first no-hitter

10:33

I don't think there were any red flags. Moore's velocity wasn't dropping. His arm slot wasn't dropping. He wasn't pitching out of jams.

10:34

Now just speaking personally, I don't care about no-hitters very much. (Note: I vastly prefer perfect games.) But if I were Bochy, in charge of Moore and the rest of my roster, I think it's a perfectly defensible position. As long as Moore looked strong, you can let him go for the personal achievement

Gabe

10:35

Could fWAR be fairly drastically underrating Robinson Cano's career? His career UZR totals suggest he's been the second-worst defensive everyday second baseman from 2005-2016, while DRS and the Fan Scouting Report both see him as well above-average over that time. The eye test (at least from his time as a Yankee) would seem to support the latter conclusion - average-at-best range, but very sure hands, a strong arm, and a knack for turning double plays. The difference is stark enough that bWAR sees Cano as a sure-fire HOF'er, with 60.8 career WAR already, while fWAR gives him only 47.6 career wins. I've always wondered why Cano graded out so poorly by UZR; you're a Seattle fan - any reason you can think of? Seems like a ripe topic for exploration.

Jeff Sullivan

10:36

I think all the players with different DRS and UZR figures are interesting to explore. And you're right, in Cano's case, it could be that fWAR is underrating him by a significant amount. I can't speak to exactly why, however -- the biggest differences came some seasons ago

10:38

From 2005 - 2010, Cano was 40 runs better by DRS. From 2011 - 2016, the separation is 24 runs. Still big, but not *enormous*. And this just comes down to differences in methodology. I don't have an explanation ready

Let's just take the easy way out and blame Jeter

CamdenWarehouse

10:38

"but value is value and it doesn't care about the situation in which a player is playing." Is the whole argument over MVP awards based upon value being tied to the situation in which a player is playing?

Jeff Sullivan

10:39

Well I mean it doesn't care if a guy is a rookie. Should we give David Ortiz extra credit because he's done well as an old man?

10:39

Do the Indians have enough offense to win it all?

Jeff Sullivan

10:39

The Royals did

The Boat

10:39

How can the Angels be competitive next year? They need pitching desperately and that's not really available this winter.

Jeff Sullivan

10:40

Health, basically. They need Richards to have a successful recovery. You put him with Shoemaker and Skaggs and hope. And then you pray that Jett Bandy is somehow for real

10:41

As with almost any team, it's possible to squint and see next year's Angels around .500.

Kyle Hendricks

10:41

Why no love! I am the ERA leader!

Jeff Sullivan

10:41

FanGraphs has loved you longer than anyone

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