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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/1/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Sanchez, because he is better
I will note that, according to the numbers at Baseball Prospectus for this season, Sanchez has a 20-run edge in pitch-framing
Good luck making up for that somewhere else
Zock Jr.
9:48
How long do you think until the tigers are back in contention? I need to pacify my Detroit-born father.
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
Talk to him about literally anything else for the next, oh, four or five years
PTBNL
9:48
Obviously you don't have a crystal ball, but what do you figure the odds are that Upton opts out? Can't imagine he'd get more than his current deal, given the contracts handed out last season to aging power hitters (EE, Bautista, Trumbo, etc.)
Jeff Sullivan
9:49
Right now, going to say 60%. I don't think he can do much better, either, but there's a chance, and players just like the freedom of the market
Wily Mo's ghost
9:50
Have you been surprised at what Fister has done since being called up? Even if he goes back to being crap from now on, safe to say the Sox are
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
Fister still hasn't been *good*, but he's been useful, and it's worth noting he's picked up a mile or two of velocity that he had previously lost
9:51
It's made him a little more difficult to hit. Not a playoff pitcher, but a reasonable regular-season placeholder
Fellow Sens Fan
9:52
Who's the Erik Karlsson of baseball?
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
Corey Seager
PTBNL
9:52
Jeff, how's it going? Any big plans for Labor Day weekend?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Going to be crowded, but this trip is long overdue
TKDC
9:53
Is anyone on the Yankees going to tell Sabathia how much of a baby he is being?
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
No
That's not how teams work
Kyle
9:53
Thank you for being  a friend, Jeff
Jeff Sullivan
9:53
Thank you for being a friend, Kyle
You should come to my birthday
JC
9:54
How much of an outlier is Gio Gonzalez to have a >3 difference between his bWAR and fWAR?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
So Gio Gonzalez has a 3.0 WAR and a 6.3 RA9-WAR
(which is basically the same as bWAR)
The difference is listed on his FanGraphs player page as FDP-Wins
Interestingly, if you click that link, you see that Gonzalez was going in the *other* direction the previous two years
Anyhow, let's examine the last two decades
9:56
There have been four seasons with an FDP-Wins of 4+, the most recent being Zack Greinke's 2015
18 seasons with an FDP-Wins of 3+. So basically once a year, on average, this happens
Dave Cameronaunepetitegraine
9:57
For a Sept playoff push, would you rather have an Ace go 5 Starts, 40 innings with an ERA of 1.00 or a Slugger go full August Stanton?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Might be the wrong answer but I'll take the full August Stanton. More even distribution of help
Wily Mo's ghost
9:58
How many teams do you think will be interested in Nuñez this winter, and what kind of role might they imagine for him? He doesn't look quite like the 1.1-win player Steamer projected for this year.
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Lots of teams are going to be in the mix. He's basically proven over the past 1000 PA or so that he's a fine hitter, and he can run the bases while playing a variety of positions. Every team would have a use for a player like this
John
10:00
Hi Jeff, thanks for chatting.  I'm working on planning a trip to Portland/Bend the week after Thanksgiving.  Do you think weather will accomodate hiking and stuff that time of year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
You can always hike. It's more a matter of your own weather tolerance. By that point I'd start expecting precipitation. At the very least, it'll be cold. But if you're comfortable with some clouds and moisture, it can be awfully rewarding to go explore Mt Hood or something in the central Cascades
Even if the mountains are inaccessible for some reason, you could hike at, say, Smith Rock. Could drive up to Crater Lake as well
PTBNL
10:03
What are your thoughts on Ashley's piece RE: Showboating, bat-flipping, and head-hunting? As a young fan, I'd love to see more personality from players on the field, and fewer guys getting thrown at intentionally.
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Yeah, I'm right there with her. And, I think, the younger generation of baseball players is also mostly right there with her. The newer breed wants to show something of itself. It wants the personalities to come across. Players will forever get pissed at other players on the field, just because the competitive spirit takes over, but that's no reason to allow dangerous attacks. Just curse at one another! Curse at one another and throw shit in the dugout. That's fine
Tom A.
10:05
McCutchen once again is terrible.  Why?  Was it two hot months or was it a long slump and another blip?
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