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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/12/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:10
Hello friends
Welcome to Wednesday baseball chat
This is just a one-week swap with Kiley because he was going to be unavailable today
Also many apologies for the especially absurd delay -- podcast ran overtime
James
9:11
Where will be AL wild card game be played?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
I think it would be a lot of fun to have the game played in Oakland, but I don't see the A's actually catching the Yankees (or the Astros for that matter)
9:12
But a one-game Oakland environment would be outstanding
Moelicious
9:12
What are the odds DeGrom wins the Cy Young award despite his won-loss record?
Jeff Sullivan
9:12
I think we've actually gotten to an interesting point -- deGrom's record is now *so* absurd I think it's actually going to help his case
9:13
There's so much attention being directed toward deGrom's ridiculous season that I figure it's going to convince enough writers to give him the credit he deserves
BJOGC
9:14
Given the way teams are currently not valuing averagish proven MLB players, should more teams embrace a stars and scrubs approach? Plenty of 1-1.5 War type players were available for nothing on waivers. Not to mention Moustakas, Lance Lynn and Neil walker having to take cheap 1 year deals
Jeff Sullivan
9:15
The problem is the stars. There aren't very many of them! Every team has always wanted to build around stars. Almost by definition, they are limited in number
Now, in theory, yeah, you're going to have teams wanting to give more of their effective payroll space to the best players. Less money spent on the supporting depth. But in practice I don't think you'll see that much of a difference
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free
9:17
Are you a free will guy or a fatalist?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
Free will. I don't think fate could've ever imagined this dumbass career I fell into
Airport Banana
9:19
With Wade Miley, Zach Davies, Brent Suter, etc., the Brewers seem to like those low-velocity guys who throw cutters. Are you able to glean anything about their organizational philosophy from this, or are they simply trying to profit off a temporary market inefficiency?
Jeff Sullivan
9:20
I wouldn't read too much into it. The Brewers, for example, rank 15th in overall team cutter rate
20th, if you go with the Pitch Info data
9:21
Now, maybe the Brewers have some kind of slight internal preference, but this is a team that wouldn't even be using Wade Miley if everything else had gone according to plan. A healthy Jimmy Nelson is a regular power pitcher
Brock
9:21
Hosmer said in today's paper that he's been working on his launch angle. Hiring Cameron's already paying off for the Padres.
Jeff Sullivan
9:22
Hosmer last year had a wRC+ of 135. Hosmer this year has a wRC+ of 94. Playing for Cameron's Padres, Hosmer has been worse than replacement!
9:23
In reality, of course, Hosmer was going to happen regardless of whether Dave had been hired. We all know how Dave felt about that inevitable move. And it only makes sense that Hosmer would start to think about making some changes after how bad he was for four or five months
Padres should've given eight years to Ji-Man Choi instead
Peter
9:25
Will DeGrom finish with a higher WAR or actual win total?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
Current situation: 8 wins, 7.7 WAR, 8.2 RA9-WAR
9:26
I still think he's going to win another game or two, just because this has basically been improbable, but I'd be lying if I said this isn't one of my favorite active baseball storylines
stever20
9:28
Why are the Dodgers so mediocre against the bad teams?  vs Mets, Marlins, Reds, Giants, and Padres they are 25-25.  Vs everyone else they are 53-42.
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
The Dodgers as a team rank 7th in baseball in winning percentage against teams that are .500 or better. They rank 17th in winning percentage against teams under .500
9:29
But then the Cardinals rank 3rd and 18th, respectively
9:30
So, for one thing, the Dodgers aren't alone in doing this. And for another, this is going to be a boring response, but I don't think there's anything to read into. The Dodgers have just been maddeningly inconsistent, and it's easiest to notice when they lose games they ought to win
9:32
The Dodgers might be 25-25 against those five teams you named, but they've also outscored those teams 228-180
9:33
Fold in some luck and better clutch performance and you wouldn't think anything of it
Except for the Reds part. That one just looks bad
ZoomZoom
9:34
At this point, did the Brewers have the best offseason? The two stars have obviously been great, but they also snagged Chacin and Miley for cheap while finding a way to keep Jesus Aguilar?
Jeff Sullivan
9:34
The Brewers' offseason was great. They picked up the two players who have turned out to be the best players on the team
9:35
I don't know how you could argue anyone did better
9:36
I mean, the Astros got, say, Gerrit Cole and Hector Rondon, and that's really good, but it's not Brewers good
The Brewers' offseason was great, and the Cubs' offseason was ugly. Which is why we have a division race even though the Brewers haven't had their best starting pitcher all season long
stever20
9:37
Does Sale have any shot in your mind realistically of the Cy Young if he doesn't get over 162 innings?
Jeff Sullivan
9:37
I'm a voter this year for the AL Cy Young, so I can't talk about this very much, but the fact of the matter is that, even right now, Sale remains the AL leader in pitching WAR. I don't care if he somehow did that in 40 innings. If you're the leader in quality, of *course* you have a case
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