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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/12/18
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tb.25
9:38
Is it Friday already? Yippee!!
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
I have terrible news!
Slider
9:40
How many orgs contract third parties to evaluate their own methods in an attempt guard against bias? Thinking about Adam McCalvy’s article yesterday on the Brewers and shifting.
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
Here's the relevant excerpt: "The Brewers attempt to qualify a sort of "plus/minus" of their shifts, but it's an inherently subjective task to determine whether a shift helped, hurt or was neutral. To account for that bias, the Brewers get a separate analysis from a third-party vendor."
9:42
I'm not able to speak to this directly, but just in terms of outside consulting, teams contract with them all the time
Tango, for example, has been a consultant. Same with MGL. It's very common
Matt
9:43
Oh god, I am actually rooting for Ben Cherington to be the next Mets GM. Every other name tossed around just sounds brutal. Shapiro is at least professional I guess. But deep down, in my heart of hearts, I know the Mets are gonna hire Dan Duquette or just give the job back to Minaya. The next decade of Mets baseball is gonna be such a disaster...
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
The guy in charge of the front office is important, but he's not as important as the guy in charge of the guy in charge of the front office. The Mets aren't going to feel like a stable organization until there's some kind of change at the ownership level
Very obviously, it's possible for the Mets to be very good under the current owners. But they are lacking for leadership and direction, and that won't change no matter who they hire to be the next GM
Bo
9:45
Now that the NL East picture is becoming much clearer, how should the Braves line up their NLDS rotation? Folty and Gausman are the only truly reliable starters at the moment.
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
It's going to depend on who they play. But as you already understand, they're not exactly rich with great options
9:47
Against all odds, Sanchez would make sense as the No. 3
Teheran vs. Newcomb would then come down to whether the opponent is better from the left side or the right side
The Old Buccaneer
9:49
Colin Moran and Josh Bell are both under 1 WAR for the season. Is there any reason to think either can end up being an above average regular for the Pirates?
Jeff Sullivan
9:50
Sure, because all it would take is a moderate power boost, and those are the kinds of improvements we're seeing every single season. There's still upside in both Bell and Moran. But I don't think anyone should expect them to become consistent 3+ WAR players. That's just never been the likelihood
Vslyke
9:51
Do the Braves have enough pitching to win in October? While the offense has the potential to win some games, I am worried that the bullpen in particular won't be able to hold leads.
Jeff Sullivan
9:52
To use a very simple angle, the Braves are basically tied with the Brewers and Cardinals in pitching-staff WAR. They're well ahead of the Cubs. Do the Cubs have enough pitching to win in October?
9:54
Brach/Winkler/Venters/Minter/Biddle isn't the greatest bullpen that's ever existed, but I think it's okay. It's definitely not a liability. The Brewers are the only team with a Josh Hader, but then, he's easily their most prominent weapon
9:55
Remember that literally last year's World Series champion got that far while more or less ignoring their closer
Will
9:56
Are the A's going to bullpen more than half their playoff games? If so, is a guy like Familia going to suffer based on what happened to Morrow this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
We don't even know if they're going to experience multiple playoff games
We certainly don't know if they're going to make it to Game 7 of the World Series
9:57
Brandon Morrow made 14 pitching appearances in last year's playoffs. 14! The A's might be toast in three hours.
Brian
9:58
The Mets have used an MLB leading 13 (non position player) pitchers this year that have produced negative WAR (-4.1 cumulative which leads baseball) and an MLB leading 12 (non pitcher) position players that have produced negative WAR (-3.7 WAR tied for 6th worst in baseball).  Is there path to contention as simple as getting rid of their crappy players?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
There are worse core groups around than deGrom/Syndergaard/Wheeler/Nimmo/Conforto. The Mets have absolutely had a problem of depth. Vargas, of course, was supposed to be better. Swarzak was also supposed to be better. Those seasons just went off the rails. But the Mets have the pieces to push for a WC berth. They just need to be better at the back of the roster
Nick
10:01
David Price says he won't opt out of his contract after this season because he wants to be in Boston.  But do you think he could get the ~4 year, $130 mil he has remaining in his contract on the open market?  Seems pretty steep.
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
No, that money wouldn't be there for him
10:03
He's 33 years old and teams would still be a little spooked by his elbow. He's put some of that concern to bed this year, but it's almost impossible for me to imagine him getting $130 million this winter
To say nothing of how unpleasant it seems to be a free agent these days in the first place
Guest
10:04
I realize the chances of Acuna winning the MVP are slight, but I can't think of another player in the NL who has had a more positive transformative effect on his team.  Did anybody really think the Braves could take that division this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
Well, a huge part of that is the Nationals underachieving. Yes, the Braves have clearly exceeded expectations, but the Nationals far undershot their own
10:06
Matt Carpenter has been huge for the Cardinals. Ditto Christian Yelich for the Brewers. (And so many other players as well)
Chuncey Wiggins
10:06
Did we just watch the final straw of the Phillies' playoff hopes when they lost game 2?
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
Maybe even when they lost game 1
10:07
It's come apart in a hurry, that much is for sure
Southi
10:08
During this upcoming off season if you were the GM of Atlanta would you be more likely to address needs through free agency, trades, or a blended method?  What do you see as the area that has the largest possibility of improvement in 2019?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
I don't see a lot of realistic help among free-agent outfielders
10:10
I could see a consolidation trade for an outfielder or a starting pitcher
I doubt the Braves' game plan is going to involve throwing around a lot of free-agent money
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