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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/12/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:10
Especially with a farm system that's rated so highly
Derek
10:11
Please have something to contribute to Carson's space home runs concept.
Jeff Sullivan
10:11
Talk about the antidote to the fly-ball revolution
John
10:12
Fangraphs playoff odds still give the Nats a 1.6% chance of making the playoffs. Would that be the greatest stretch run comeback ever?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
Those, at least, are some contenders
10:14
Not sure if they're superior contenders, but, those are the teams that stick out
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
10:15
Stupid hypothetical: The Rays can give up players and they get to change divisions. Say the players just go to random clubs in the other league or something. What is the most they would give up? Like if Manfred said give up Honeywell and you get to go to the NL East they'd do it in a heartbeat. I would think they would give up a lot. Chris Sale package sort of deal and then some.
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Yeah, the Rays would be over the moon if they could switch their division. The NL East isn't exactly the AL Central or anything, but there's nowhere tougher than the AL East
10:17
Changing divisions would effectively add multiple wins to the Rays every season, because of their schedule and because they wouldn't have to deal with the Red Sox and Yankees anymore. You'd absolutely be looking at some kind of hypothetical prospect haul
Slider
10:18
NL MVP race looks fun this year. Got any predictions?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
Going to depend on how the final playoff picture looks, but my current favorite is Carpenter, with Yelich No. 2
robertobeers
10:21
If Verlander has a down season next year, he becomes a FA. Assuming he still has a ~3 WAR season with the velocity, 94+ avg FB and 86+ on the SL, what kind of deal would a future HoF guy get going into his age 37 season in 2020?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
Was going to make one point, but then I remembered that Verlander's 2020 vesting option was dropped shortly after the trade
10:23
I'd think Verlander could get something around three years and $60 million
10:24
Of course it would depend on what Verlander's down 2019 actually looked like, but if the stuff is still there and if he's still above-average, then enough teams could convince themselves he's worth a big investment
Mike
10:25
Ryan O'hearn is top 10 in baseball in average EV, barrel %, and hard it rate (minimum 60 batted balls). Tiny sample, and really only hitting against righties. But my goodness, he is destroying them. Is an article on its way?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
I was looking at him just yesterday. One cool thing about O'Hearn is that he has a 165 wRC+. One weird thing about O'Hearn is that, in Triple-A, he had an 87 wRC+. Obviously, something doesn't match!
10:27
The Statcast information we already have moves the estimate -- O'Hearn is better than we thought one month ago. But one thing I couldn't help but notice is that he's mostly brutalized bad pitching. It's not his fault; the Royals see a lot of bad pitching. But he's started a quarter of his games against the White Sox
10:28
There's also this: O'Hearn ranks 9th in average exit velocity, but he ranks 378th right now in maximum exit velocity (out of 458 players). My suspicion is that O'Hearn has just fluked his way into an inordinate number of barrels
Thanks for the Analysis
10:30
What would Brewers pitching look like in a Wild Card game? Who starts, and for how few innings?
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
Adams, Carpenter, Wong, and Garcia are the Cardinals' only lefties
Let's assume, then, the Brewers are facing the Cardinals
10:31
I think you see Chacin for at least one turn and quite possibly two, depending on how things are going
10:32
Chacin is a great option to have against a righty-heavy lineup
2-D
10:33
How much faith do you have that second half Luis Castillo can become full time Luis Castillo?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
Castillo has been really quite good since the start of May
He's had a bit of a home-run problem, but he's also pitching in an unforgiving environment
10:35
It took a little while for Castillo to rediscover the sinker he developed last year on the fly. Once he's folded that in, he's been strong
10:36
I'm a big fan of Castillo. One of the best things the Reds have going
Todd
10:36
Any chance that minor league playoff stats can be included in the season stats on player pages?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
This is actually the first time I can recall receiving such a request
I'll see how easy it is
Lunch Angle
10:37
It's funny that McNeil and McNeill are completely opposite kinds of rookie hitters
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
There is no McNeill
There is an O'Neill
In which case, you are correct!
10:38
Fun fact about Tyler O'Neill: he has a contact rate of 57%!
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