Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/2/16
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Justin
9:29
At the risk of sounding crass, do you think anyone has suggested to Rich Hill that he try wearing a band-aid?
Jeff Sullivan
9:29
A band-aid wouldn't help. Try throwing a baseball with a band-aid on your fingertip.
9:30
It'll go somewhere, but good luck manipulating the spin or getting the right kind of release
Greg
9:30
Should the jays consider piggybacking Dickey with another of their starters in a playoff game? Dickey could face the order one time then happ/estrada/sanchez/stroman could come in and pitch 5-6 innings to take advantage of the 'dickey' effect
Jeff Sullivan
9:30
I actually really like this idea, in theory, and it would help the Jays make use of everyone
9:31
It's probably too "out there" for a real team to implement in a game with real stakes, but it would be a fun way to broadcast the Dickey effect to a national (or international!) audience
Radials
9:32
Let's say we have a player in his mid-20s who is essentially injury-free has played for four years, plays average middle infield defense and hits 35-45 HRs a year while batting ~.280/.340, but he K's about 30% of the time and walks about 7%, so he's got a real high BABIP and isn't particularly patient. Would we say he's been lucky for four years or is there something to his skillset? It seems unsustainable, but would a team take a risk and give this player $20 mil a year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:33
You'd say there's something to the skillset. It's vaguely reminiscent of Ian Desmond before the collapse and re-creation. With Statcast data now, teams could really dive in and examine how that player has been hitting the ball. Odds are this would be a player who doesn't pop the ball up. That's a sustainable skill
You'd expect some kind of regression -- you should always expect some kind of regression -- but that's a valuable player right there
j6takish
9:34
Jeff, in years past you were really big on pitch framing. It seems like the hype has really died down. In hindsight, was it ever as big of a deal as it seemed? Do you remember when the rays gave Jose Molina like 800 PA on purpose? Was there ever any possible way for him to out-frame a 50 wRC+?
Jeff Sullivan
9:35
The hype has died down because pitch-framing is a few years old now. The novelty has worn off and now we all get to play with Statcast information instead. We also talk a lot less about Mike Trout than we used to, but that doesn't mean Mike Trout is any less amazing. Pitch-framing still matters. In some cases it still matters a lot! It makes Yasmani Grandal super valuable. It makes Buster Posey even more valuable than he already seems. It's a real thing that makes a real difference. It's just no longer so fresh. We all move on
Terrible Ted
9:36
Lets stick all BBWAA voters in a room and let them decide jury style who gets what award.
Jeff Sullivan
9:36
Let's not, because I don't want to be trapped in a room with a whole bunch of people over a holiday weekend
Raindog
9:37
After Kershaw, Verlander, Felix, what active pitcher has the best chance at HOF? Sabathia done enough? Hope Scherzer/Bumgarner have excellent mid-career? Pray for health from Fernandez/Strasburg/Thor? Kimbrel going Rivera 2.0?
Jeff Sullivan
9:38
I think Sabathia will have an opportunity, and Greinke could really boost his case if he ages as gracefully as it seems like he should
Ty
9:39
Are radars used as graphs to compare players more than is in the public's eye? If not, is there a reason that sort of graph haven't made their way into baseball?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
I don't really have a great answer for this. I would say that I don't think we're hurting for ways to illustrate value.
Andy
9:41
Best streaming option tonight: Twiggs, Richards, Sanchez, or Manea
Jeff Sullivan
9:41
You have successfully misspelled three of the four names in your question
TP for my Jung Ho
9:42
What percentage of the decision on the Cubs playoff starting rotation will be left up to Maddon? If he wanted to throw Hendricks first, what are the chances the front office vetoes that decision?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
More likely is that the front office and Maddon will have a series of conversations in advance of the playoffs so that, in the end, everybody agrees
The front office loves Hendricks. Everybody loves Hendricks. It's really going to come down to whether Arrieta shows any improvement in the four weeks ahead
Zach
9:44
Does Billy Hamilton get his first Gold Glove this year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:44
He definitely should. Inciarte is the only other reasonable contender and Hamilton has played more innings
Chris206
9:45
Oh my poor Mariners. When will the sadness stop Jeff??
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
October 3
Chuck Burly
9:45
Yankees got a haul of prospects and are in the WC race. Any chance Hal realizes he should just let Cashman just do his job?
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
I know we're all kind of supposed to root against the Yankees or something but I love the way this has turned out. Sell *and* get better? It's amazing!
TKDC
9:46
Today is my birthday. Please say something nice about the Braves. Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
9:46
I just noticed that Ender Inciarte would have the third-highest WAR on the Diamondbacks
EC
9:46
How excited was Carson for Max Schrock to get traded to Oakland? Also, decent trade for Rzep-whatever?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
Oakland did really well there. I don't know how much Carson cared about Schrock getting traded -- all he wants is for Schrock to be successful someplace. But it must have felt good to see the industry recognition that he's a desirable young player
Kevin
9:47
Is there anything behind a team either overperforming or underperforming their BaseRuns record, or is it just random variation?
Jeff Sullivan
9:47
It's not either/or. This variation should always be very heavily regressed, but I don't think it should be regressed all the way to zero. Let's say it's 80-90% noise, and 10-20% signal
9:48
A reliably strong bullpen seems to help
termel sledge
9:48
I'm currently in a long back-and-forth of humorous baseball-ref pages with a friend. what's a good general vein to start searching for names to send?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
Just go back to some ancient year and team you don't know anything about and simply click around.
9:49
For example, I'll type in "1934 Athletics"
Immediately, I see a player named Sugar Cain! http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cainsu01.shtml
Kolten
9:51
What kind of deal do you think that Ian Desmond should get in the off-season, and what you think he will get?
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