Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/2/16
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Jeff Sullivan
9:53
I think he'll end up with something kind of similar to the Daniel Murphy deal. Maybe you bump it up to 3/$45m, or perhaps even 4/$60m. It doesn't help that Desmond has so far had a lousy second half, but he's proven himself as a legitimate CF, which isn't much worse than being a legitimate SS
Brett Lawrie's Empty Redbull Can
9:54
Who is your favourite super obscure reliever having a good year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
He's not super obscure but I don't know how many people realize that Addison Reed has thrown like six balls all season long
9:56
Edubray Ramos is a name to know. 23, Phillies. 33 strikeouts and seven walks in the majors. 41 and 4 in the minors before getting promoted
Adam
9:57
Braves keep Inciarte and trade Mallex Smth? Vice versa? Keep both?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
I think they'll explore trading Inciarte, but if it weren't for the damn Kemp trade they could put them both in the same outfield. Stupid
Jeffery
9:57
If you had to guess, what sort of pitcher would the Yankees target in a trade and who would they give up?
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
They'd look for someone young and cost-controlled. That seems to be their theme. I'm sure they'd love to try and pounce on Taijuan Walker. And if Cashman were to get really bold, they've probably assembled enough young talent to make a play for Chris Sale
Joe
10:01
Last night Hawk Harrelson said "Kris Bryant is good but you know he's not Todd Frazier."
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
Well, he's not
10:04
Fun fact: our leaderboards show 25 qualified third basemen. Frazier is tied for 20th in WAR, even with Yunel Escobar
So many good third basemen
peopletocakeratio
10:05
billy hamilton's career BB% is 6.4%. he finished august with a 12.1% BB%. his next three highest monthly BB% rates are 11.5% in september 2015, 10.8% in september 2014, and 9.1% in september 2013. fun statistical anomaly or more weird billy hamilton-ness? (monthly splits for his career: http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=10199&position=OF&season=0#advanced)
Jeff Sullivan
10:06
I think it's mostly noise. Hamilton didn't swing at a lower rate of pitches out of the zone in August. I buy that he's gradually improving, and I know he's a hard worker, but he's not ready to walk like that yet
Outta my way, Gyorkass
10:07
What do the Brewers need to do (or have happen) right to make it into the postseason in 2018?

Hader/Ortiz come up and pitch well, Peralta returns to respectability, Braun doesn't regress too much, they find viable 1B/2B's in trades, Arcia turns into early career Andrelton Simmons, Brinson becomes a 6 win CF, and one other MiLB OF takes over RF?
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
Long list. Need pitching! And it's tough to replace a Lucroy. The Brewers are going to need some of the young talent in house to develop into 4+ WAR players. Every good roster needs a core. What I'm encouraged by is that Stearns has been good about finding those secondary supportive players. When the Brewers get going I don't think they'll ever be hurting for depth
Captain Krunch
10:09
So, what's wrong with Freddie Freeman?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
I assume this is sarcasm and I'm just not quite picking up on it because it's morning
Outta my way, Gyorkass
10:09
What team's the next to blow it up and fall into Reds/Padres type abyss, BAL? LAA?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
White Sox seem like they're the most likely to blow it up this offseason. The Orioles aren't close to bad enough, and you'll never convince the Angels to trade Mike Trout
If the Diamondbacks struggle out of the gate in 2017, they could also move in that direction, under new management
Sam
10:12
Does Keuchel get the start if the Astros make the wildcard? Concerned about his fatigue.
Jeff Sullivan
10:12
I think it's Keuchel, but there's so much depth in that bullpen that they wouldn't have to try to stretch him too far.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
10:12
What's the maximum statistical impact that the "best" manager in baseball can really have? 1 WARM, maybe?
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
I genuinely have no idea. I think it would be more than one win. My preferred version of heaven is a place where I can get real answers to any question I ask. I think if I died and went to my heaven and asked this question, I'd find out that the best managers are remarkably valuable. Mostly in ways we'll never quite be able to measure
10:14
I'd say...5? Maybe on average the very best manager would be worth five wins?
Raindog
10:16
The pro-rated minimum for a month is ~ 0.1 million. Other than delaying the clock on top prospects, shouldn't contending teams just call up their entire 40-man roster now?
Jeff Sullivan
10:17
Well, there's the service-time consideration, and there are other simply practical concerns. A clubhouse and dugout can hold only so many players in them.
Tom
10:17
Are the Astros the team to beat in the AL West in 2017?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
I think so, but the Rangers are really close and they'll find some way to replace Desmond/etc. Remember that adding Lucroy/Jeffress also helps them next season
Davis
10:20
I feel like Josh Bell goes into next year as a STRONG contender for NL ROY, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
Looks like he won't finish with too many at-bats this season, so, yeah, he's positioned well, given that he should be on the roster all next season long
Ryan
10:21
Whom should the Reds be most interested in trading away this off-season to try to continue their rebuild?
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
There's not much for them to do. They should shed Phillips, and they'll try to move Cozart again, but there's no Cueto here to flip
Zach
10:23
Do you think Gerrit Cole's down year can be attributed to him trying to play through injuries or something more?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
Sorry about that, another internet hiccup
10:26
Cole's funny -- he's switched to the point where now he can strike out lefties but not righties. It seems like he just hasn't had the slider he's wanted with righties at the plate, and I don't think it's a coincidence he's got some arm issues. It doesn't sound like it's structural but I have to think a big chunk of his decline is health-related
NYTT
10:28
Why do right fielders *need* more arm strength than center and left fielders? If a right fielder gets to the ball quicker and gets the ball to whichever base quicker than the average right fielder, but does it with a 45 arm, don't we still have an above average right fielder defensively?
Jeff Sullivan
10:29
It's pretty much all about the distant throw to third base. But I think you're right that there should be other considerations.
For what it's worth, results from last year's Fan Scouting Report:
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