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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/21/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:23
If I cared more, it would be infuriating
10:24
I get that, in theory, Healy has some upside. In reality, Vogelbach is closer to reaching his own
tb.25
10:24
What do you say when someone says WAR shouldn't be the only measure determining MVP?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
That person would be right. WAR has very many shortcomings
bluejays fan
10:26
what are your thoughts on Cavan Biggio?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
The strikeouts are more likely to stick with him than the walks. Waiting for him to play well at a defensive position. That being said, should still reach the majors
Gunnerfan
10:26
Hey Jeff. I know you are primarily a baseball sabrmetrics guy, but have you ever read or looked into statistical analysis of other sports like for example statsbomb on soccer. Are you at all in interested in the methods in which they collect their data and interpret it? For example pass quality, shot pressure, and expected goals in soccer.
Jeff Sullivan
10:27
I'm interested enough to have someone talk to me about it for half an hour. I'm not sufficiently interested to spend time looking into it on my own. I don't care about soccer, football, or basketball, and I've made the decision not to learn more about hockey on purpose
10:28
I prefer that hockey remain a strictly emotional outlet
Sir Mookleton McBetts
10:28
The Dodgers just swept the Rockies and their chance to win the Division is now 95%. I don't have a question
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
Felt inevitable. Could still blow it! But the Dodgers are simply too damn good.
10:29
It's funny -- we always talk about how one season is still a small sample, all things considered, but it's amazing how by the end so many things do seem to find their natural level
Turning Japanese
10:30
Any Asian imports worth keeping an eye on?
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
There will be more, I'm sure, but that'll be more of an offseason pursuit for me
Nick
10:31
josh james is pretty filthy right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
Believe Carson
Charles A
10:32
Ty Buttrey - any thoughts at all on his showing?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
It's early, obviously, but you have to love his having three pitches, getting grounders, and getting strikeouts. Slider seems legit. His stock could rise very quickly if he keeps retiring both righties and lefties
John
10:33
Do you know of any sites doing all context level stats, where striking out Trout bumps up your K% more than striking out Gallo, essentially breaking down every match up forwards and backwards to get a more nuanced view of K%, wOBA, WAR, etc. etc.?  Including everything important(park dependence, umpires, etc.)
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
No!
10:34
Baseball Prospectus has some pitching stats that attempt to fold in park, framing, strength of opponent, etc. That's probably as close as you can get
Vslyke
10:35
Do you think Russell will get suspended now when he wasn't before? The new information seems like a game changer
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Presumably would depend on his ex-wife's willingness to cooperate. At least, in terms of a suspension being handed down from the league. She wouldn't cooperate with investigators last year, so there wasn't much more for them to do
Alex
10:37
Rank the disappointment of these 2018 collapses: Diamondbacks, Phillies, Rockies.
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
I think the Phillies would be the most disappointing, then the Diamondbacks, then the Rockies
10:38
Now, the lateness of the Rockies' slump makes that a little more acute
Dustin H
10:38
Any chance we could see a series of articles on top MVP candidates for the NL MVP? Something like the "The Case for (insert candidate name here) for AL MVP" series that was done by various writers here in 2016?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Maybe something to do next week. I'll put it into the Slack
Hinkie
10:41
Give me your best guess:                                                                 In 2019, Manny Machado will be playing for __________ and Bryce Harper will be playing for __________ .
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
Yankees, Phillies
Derry Jipoto
10:42
A lot of non/underperforming contracts; Seager, Felix, Gordon, Robi, Nicasio etc. Where do I start in offloading or getting value?
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
lol good luck
I don't think it's really up to Dipoto anyway. I assume he's under some kind of mandate not to burn it down
Coach K
10:44
What is Thor doing to change to a contact pitcher? Is this something intentional or perhaps something still wrong. It appears strikeouts are down and maybe there is a long term plan finally sinking in that he will go longer in games not trying to k everyone. Your thoughts?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
Interestingly, at least according to Brooks Baseball, in Syndergaard's most recent start he didn't throw a single sinker. All his fastballs were four-seamers. That would represent a marked change in direction
10:47
But even second-half Syndergaard has allowed a contact rate of 74%, which is basically exactly where it was when he was a rookie
10:48
Put another way, I don't think Syndergaard is trying to pitch to contact. I think his command isn't where he would want it to be
10:50
One other thing -- for some reason, this year, Syndergaard hasn't been able to throw as many high-rising fastballs as before. So his four-seamer has been less effective. Wonder if that's a delivery thing that's changed unintentionally
David
10:50
Without a full blow up are the mariner's going into a 3-5 year stretch of purgatory, balancing between 70-80 wins.
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