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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/21/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:50
Yeah, probably
They are not good, and they are not terrible
Kristen
10:50
Chances Cash and Neander win MOY and Exec of the Year?  TB 18 games over .500 despite MLB's lowest payroll and the Archer deal was amazing.
Jeff Sullivan
10:50
I imagine the playoff bump is going to give the award(s) to Oakland
NYTT
10:53
As a Braves fan, I am pessimistic about them in the playoffs solely because wow the Dodgers are good (My assumption is that we play them). What would be the odds that the Braves take that series? 1 in 3?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
Let's use some basic math
Let's assume a five-game series, and let's just assume the Dodgers end up with home field
10:54
We can use actual records first. The Braves and Dodgers both have winning percentages of .556! The Braves would have a 49% chance of winning that series, roughly
10:55
But according to BaseRuns, the Dodgers "should" have a winning percentage of .607. The Braves, .572. Using those numbers, the Braves would have about a 42% chance of winning that series
10:56
Let's say it's probably somewhere around 2-in-5, or 3-in-7
Mac Gwire
10:57
Is the Yankees' righty-heavy lineup a concern against Oakland?
Jeff Sullivan
10:57
It could be a bit of an issue, yeah. They'd have to decide whether to play Gardner over McCutchen, and Bird over Voit
10:58
Everyone of note on the A's pitching staff aside from Buchter and Anderson are right-handed
Gunnerfan
10:59
Jeff. The Yankees hit 3 very silly homeruns to right field over the short porch on Wednesday against David Price. They all had very low hit probabilities. What is the lowest hit probability on a homerun ever recorded?
Jeff Sullivan
10:59
On May 1, Anthony Rizzo went deep against Jon Gray in Chicago
11:00
The expected batting average of the home run was .004
It uh, got up there in the wind
11:01
But wait! On August 17, 2017, Jedd Gyorko went deep against Jameson Taillon in PIttsburgh
The expected batting average of the home run was .002
carrotjuice
11:01
MLB including the Rays in the "Post Season Push" seems like a bit of a stretch, no?
Jeff Sullivan
11:01
Yes
11:02
I saw headlines yesterday describing the Rays' collapse against the Blue Jays as devastating. No. Their odds have long been under 1%
John
11:03
Are there any pitchers you particularly think would be a good fit for a post-opener role? I really enjoyed Kiley and Eric's post on that subject
Jeff Sullivan
11:04
I'm not sure we know enough yet to be able to identify specific pitchers who would be especially good for the role. You're looking for guys too good to just relieve but not good enough to be top starters. Guys like, I don't know, Chad Green?
Ian
11:04
Javier Baez will have an OBP under .300 next season, I don’t think he’s all that much better than a guy like Ian Desmond
Jeff Sullivan
11:04
At least now he's got Adalberto Mondesi to point to as someone doing the same thing
Ben
11:05
I just saw a tweet about how good Luke Voit has been with the Yankees. Why did the Cardinals trade him again? Positional logjam or something? He's played a ton of 1B in New York
Jeff Sullivan
11:05
The Cardinals have already had some trouble finding room for Jose Martinez. Voit's a fine hitter, but he doesn't provide value elsewhere, so with the Cadinals' depth he got squeezed out
11:06
All right, I need to get rolling
So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I'm sorry for what I didn't or couldn't address. We'll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days
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