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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/22/17
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Jeff Sullivan
9:02
Hello friends
Welcome to Friday baseball chat
Bork
9:02
Hello, friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:02
Hello friend
Bork Bork
9:02
Hello Friend! Hello Friend!
Jeff Sullivan
9:02
I would like Bork to know that he has many weekly admirers and impostors
Ned Yost
9:02
Sox are running a wRC+ in the 80s the past few weeks. As an Astros fan, am I crazy for preferring to face them over the Yankees in the ALDS?
Jeff Sullivan
9:03
I don't think so. The playoff Yankees look scary good, given how heavily they could lean upon that bullpen
9:04
The Red Sox are still a fantastic baseball team, and all that, but the Yankees are so well set up for the postseason. Now that they've made it this far, the true strength of the roster can be more fully unleashed
Zonk
9:04
What should the Orioles do this offseason?  They seem determined to compete rather than sell Britton, Machado, Jones, but I don’t see how they can radically improve.  Will this end in the Orioles being bad for a long time?
Jeff Sullivan
9:05
If they can't extend Machado, it only makes sense to trade him this winter. He's not a guy who would drive a trade-deadline premium. And if you're trading Machado, you're trying to trade the rest. Although with Britton, I guess you need to let him try to re-establish value in the first half
It's hard, I know, because the Orioles always seem to be around the fringe of the race. But I don't realistically know how they keep up with the rest of the good teams in the AL between now and next September. Looks like it's time for the step that Angelos refuses to take
Zonk
9:06
Kris Bryant is 3rd in fWAR in the NL, only 0.3 behind the leader, and is the reigning MVP.  It doesn’t look like he’s in the conversation for MVP this year though.  Is he somehow underrated?
Jeff Sullivan
9:07
I don't think Kris Bryant is in any way underrated. He is, as you say, the reigning league MVP. It's just...I mean, *is* there an NL MVP conversation? I hear about it the least, out of the major awards. I have no idea who's going to win, in the way that I have a strong understanding of the other races
Definitely can't argue that Bryant is underrated when he's involved in the same race as Anthony Rendon
sp13
9:08
Guess who leads the AL in stolen bases? Go ahead. Guess!
Yes! You're right! It's Whitley Merrifield. Only Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon are ahead of him.
And among those three speedsters, guess who has the highest OPS, wRC+, wOBA, WAR, SB%, and HR's?
Yes. You're right again. It's Whitley Merrifield.
Also, ignore Jose Altuve. Just pretend he doesn't exist and this whole conversation is much more interesting.
Jeff Sullivan
9:09
Merrifield is one of those weird fun late-career breakout stories, and he ought to now help prevent the Royals from bottoming out. I also kind of like what they have in Junis. It's still, though, an organization perilously short on long-term assets. Going to be a rough winter
Q-Ball
9:10
Justin Wilson’s command has suddenly abandoned him.  Is there a particular reasons, or he just has to work it out?
Jeff Sullivan
9:11
This one is really strange. He still has his stuff, and it's not like he's completely missing the strike zone all the time. But, by walk rate, this is the wildest stretch of his big-league career. I can't get into his head, so I don't know if he's experiencing some form of mental block, but I believe he's structurally sound. So it's one of those work-it-out situations. Just, preferably, in lower-leverage spots
9:12
He's pretty fortunate the Brewers couldn't seal the deal yesterday
w
9:13
Just as a follow-up for your Winnipeg-Wichita discussion on the pod, the pitcher was called for still doing the "glove wiggle" while lowering his hands in the set. I don't think it was a balk either, but that was the explanation.
Jeff Sullivan
9:14
Isn't that the thing Chris Tillman does?
9:15
Or, at the very least, did. Like any responsible baseball observer, I've tried not to watch Chris Tillman for a while
I get that the pitcher had a very brief pause in his delivery, but I still think the pause was there. More of a non-balk than a balk, to me
9:16
Probably, without the balk, Wichita wins the championship. Instead, they lost the game, and then subsequently got destroyed in Game 5. Winnipeg won it all. Tough break
Ben
9:17
Is there a starting pitcher with better command of his entire repertoire than Keuchel?
Jeff Sullivan
9:17
Keuchel is way up there on the list that we can't actually measure. I think he's taken a little step back, so maybe it's someone like Hendricks, or it's the ol reliable Greinke
Q-Ball
9:18
What rebuilding team has had the best year in terms of development?  MIL perhaps?
Jeff Sullivan
9:18
I don't know how you'd argue against the Brewers, although it's worth noting maybe the most promising development has come from Jimmy Nelson, and now he's out with a potentially career-altering labrum tear
9:19
Huge, huge blow if Nelson doesn't come back as he was. He had become one of the best starting pitchers around
9:20
Worth giving some attention to the Phillies -- great recent signs from Hoskins, Nola, Altherr, and Crawford. They need plenty of pitching, but pieces are coming together
PTBNL
9:20
Is the 300k narrative enough to push Sale over Kluber for Cy Young? Or will Kluber's (and his team's) strong second half keep the award in his favor?
Jeff Sullivan
9:21
Strong point in Sale's favor. He needed some kind of late push, and that start against the Orioles was sensational. It's going to be hard to break through the ERA mindset, but Sale has a real advantage in strikeouts and innings. I'd put it right now at...55/45 in Kluber's favor
Bork
9:24
Where does Jose Bautista go from here?
Jeff Sullivan
9:25
Can't run, can't play the field, is shortly turning 37
9:26
He'll be marketed as a bounceback candidate, which is fair, but very obviously, the pool of interested teams will be small. I'd say 40% Rays, 40% field, 20% retirement
Owen Ricketts
9:27
Do you think that JD Martinez will get more than the 4/110 that Cespedes got, especially due to the lack of a qualifying offer attached to him?
Jeff Sullivan
9:28
I'd be surprised if that kind of market existed for a power hitter who doesn't really do anything else
9:29
Martinez is a liability as an outfielder, and he's no baserunning asset. He's going to get paid, absolutely, and he deserves it, but the only concern with Cespedes is health. His athleticism is wildly superior to that of Martinez
Chicks Dig the Long Ball
9:29
Favorite part about your job?
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