JotCast | Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/23/16

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/23/16

Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page

Jeff Sullivan

9:27

I really don't have that much of a problem with Shaw starting against righties. Sure, he's slumped some, and sure, he's uninspiring, but the rest of the offense just makes Shaw look like he sucks a lot more than he does by comparison. He's fine, and though this might be the Red Sox weak spot, it's really not that weak. Holt is perfectly useful but I think mostly off the bench

Dr. Frank Jobe

9:27

Where does Asdrubal Cabrera's bat flip rank in this year's list of bat flips? Also, isnt he basically having this offensive surge on one leg?

Jeff Sullivan

9:27

Top five bat flip

9:29

He's at a 153 wRC+ in the second half. Even better in just August and September since returning from the DL. It would seem he's just trying to let it fly, and without doubt it has been working

Dan

9:30

how do hitters with a small platoon split do against same handed pitchers with huge platoon splits. how do hitters with large platoon splits do against same handed pitchers with a small platoon split

Jeff Sullivan

9:30

If I recall I'm pretty sure the research says they achieve an almost balanced compromise

Sirras

9:30

What (baseball) award do you think will be hardest to cast your vote for over the course of your voting career?

Jeff Sullivan

9:30

Any Manager of the Year Award

9:31

You can overthink that one to death but I feel like it's always going to end up with a shrug

TF Fredrik

9:31

With all the data we have and will have for statcast in the near future, Do teams already have a fully stocked tech staff to sort thru all this data? A lot seems like it will have to come down to computers and programs breaking down this data. Even more so than all the programs/algorithms they already use.

Jeff Sullivan

9:32

Not every team, of course, is equally staffed, but everyone is looking at Statcast, and everyone anticipated they'd need some help to handle the treasure trove.

9:33

If you want a job in baseball, there might be no easier way than by demonstrating that you know how to do computer-y stuff with massive data files. I say "computer-y stuff" because I, personally, am a complete idiot

Brandon

9:34

Who wins the AL ROTY? made the case for naquin the other day, but i think fulmer takes it

Jeff Sullivan

9:34

I *still* think it's Fulmer -- I think he best fits the established mold. But Sanchez just ripped off another five homers in four games. Used to be I thought the race was like 90/10 in Fulmer's favor. Now I'm thinking it's 60/40

Jim Lonborg

9:36

Do you believe in the Buchholz Renaissance, at least temporarily? Right now he seems like a safer choice than Pomeranz.

Jeff Sullivan

9:37

I don't think he's suddenly become good -- the last three starts, he has eight walks and nine strikeouts. He had a good start on September 6, but that was on the road against the Padres, so that was basically like a rehab game

Jim Lonborg

9:38

So, the Red Sox have won their last five games while scoring five runs in each game. Can you think of an efficient way to figure out whether that's ever happened? Perhaps this is already out there on the internet and I just haven't seen it.

Jeff Sullivan

9:38

Let's see what I can get from the Play Index streak finder

9:39

Confirmed, this is a first!

The Red Sox are the first team in recorded history to win five straight games with exactly five runs. The 2011 Yankees did it in four straight games

Fire Kevin Cash

9:40

Noticed that Alex Colome has been getting a few 4+ out save opportunities, and he's not the only one. How is this as a compromise between the sabermetric case for using your best reliever at the highest leverage times and the psychological benefits of having a guy know that he's the 9th inning man (e.g. Mo's consistent warmup routine and prep)?

Jeff Sullivan

9:41

If I had to guess at the compromise, it's a way to expand your closer's role while still not actually taking any saves away from him. I feel like you open the door to a potential letdown if a guy goes from a bananas eighth to a quiet and clean ninth, but I'd call this progress. It's something that eats away at the norm, and it's a good thing to see, as long as relievers are able to handle it

Nick

9:45

Yesterday, in the bottom of the 5th in a 2-2 game between the Indians and Royals, Francona called for a sacrifice bunt with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs. Of course Perez bunted into a double play, but even before the bad outcome, that's a silly decision, right?

Jeff Sullivan

9:46

Going over some win-expectancy stuff, generally speaking even a successful sac bunt there would not have increased the Indians' chances of winning. That being said, Perez is a bad hitter, and he was already behind in the count 0-and-1, so that changes the math of what you'd expect if Perez were to swing away. I never love bunts, but I don't think that's a terrible one, as bunts go

Matt

9:46

To whom would you give the Cookie of the Year award?

Jeff Sullivan

9:46

Any pitch thrown by Alfredo Simon

MegaMaid

9:47

has the reds pitching staff gone from suck to blow?

Jeff Sullivan

9:48

Give the Reds some credit -- their first-half pitching WAR was a seemingly impossible -3.7. In the second half, they're up to 2.5, which is good for 26th place. That's not last!

The second-half Reds have pitched better, by this measure, than the Angels, Braves, Twins, and Diamondbacks

Jim Lonborg

9:49

Isn't it hard to compare terribleness in pitching staffs across eras, because of the difference in rotation size? Safe to say the Reds have the most bad pitchers ever, even if they don't have the worst pitching staff cumulatively?

Jeff Sullivan

9:49

I don't think you have to worry about the eras if you're just comparing overall pitching-staff performance

Steve Clevenger

9:49

How valuable of a trade piece am I right now? Any chance the Dbacks trade for me. I'm from the streets, real gritty.

Jeff Sullivan

9:49

You suck

Dominik

9:50

have the Phillies really made a step forward? record is better but their run differential is near worst the league and they are 10 over their Pythagoran. will FO make a foolish attempt to compete? fans seem to think one or two free agents and they are good

Jeff Sullivan

9:52

No, they're not going to push a bunch of chips forward this offseason. They know better than that. They can feel reasonably good about Nola, Velasquez, and Eickhoff. And as a team they'll be better in 2017, but there's still a long way to go. It doesn't help that Maikel Franco is not good

Bork

9:52

La Russa has said he would leave the D'Backs if Stewart gets fired. Is there even any world where they would get rid of Stewart but keep La Russa?

Jeff Sullivan

9:52

La Russa's right! If Stewart goes away, La Russa won't be occupying an organizational role in 2017

9:53

Doesn't really matter how or why

Dan

9:53

Jorge Soler has the 18th highest OPS+ in the 2nd half (>100 PA)

Jeff Sullivan