Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/23/16
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Jimbo
9:54
ESPN Cy Young Predictor has Jon Lester winning. Do you think he has an actual shot at it or have people typically been looking at Jose, Thor, and Kershaw?
Jeff Sullivan
9:54
I don't see a world where Lester even gets more support than Kyle Hendricks
Dan
9:55
Is there anywhere that has extensive injury info for each player? Games off / times missed / even for non-DL stints?
Jeff Sullivan
9:55
It's not exactly what you're looking for but this is kind of useful http://prosportstransactions.com/
Matt
9:56
Tyler Glasnow's role and numbers in 2017?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
I bet he'll end up starting at least 15 times for the Pirates but speaking for myself, I'm not convinced he's going to look like anything special
9:57
I'm way more of a Taillon guy
Ben
9:58
If a player has a 3 fWAR and a 5 rWAR, is it fair to just assume he's probably a 4 WAR player? When there's a big difference in the two, it's probably some where in the middle?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Typically, yeah, that's not a bad guess. If it's a position player, then that's mostly a difference between UZR and DRS, and you should just compromise. If it's a pitcher, you can do a little more -- was it BABIP? Was it sequencing? Is he really a soft-contact guy?
Marc
9:59
Why Yoan Moncada doesn't get at bats over Travis Shaw ?
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
Because Moncada's at-bats have been worse
Dan
10:00
How can I find info on how well a team (Cubs) has done vs particular pitchers? I want to combine some NL aces and see how they've done versus #1s
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
I think that probably just calls for an hour or two spent going through Baseball-Reference game logs
Andy
10:00
I was lucky enough to be in attendance of last night's Pitch Talks! Got the chance to speak with Dave briefly and it was a delight. I was thinking, it would be amazing if FanGraphs did their own type of tour like this! I'm not sure how feasible that is, but I find all of you entertaining, believe it or not. Carson can host!
Jeff Sullivan
10:01
I mean, FanGraphs tends to be well represented already at these events, and the guy in charge is way more familiar with issues like event-planning or venue-booking. So there's a good thing going. I bet we'll see some developments over the winter in terms of getting more out there
Sean P
10:02
Has Theo Epstein become more or less valuable today compared to earlier in his career? On the one hand, front office personnel accross the league has become more intelligent so that it is more difficult for Epstein to exploit market inefficiencies. On the other hand, Theo is largely responsible for constructing two teams that may match up in the world series. Clearly he's extremely valuable, but how valuable?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03
I think you're right that the baseline has come way up, closing the gap between Epstein and some replacement-level executive. But I think we can also say that Epstein possesses an unusual blend of analytical and personal skills, and his ability to spot talent and communicate still sets him apart
Julio Pepper
10:04
A heretofore undiscovered 5yr old Seager brother emerges. You are a wealthy investor, and you know nothing else about him; how much would you be willing to pay for his future MLB earnings?
Jeff Sullivan
10:04
So am I negotiating directly with the five-year-old, or am I speaking with his agent?
10:05
The dismissive non-answer is that I could make a better bet just applying my money to the normal market. But I wouldn't *not* be intrigued by the Seager potential so I'd probably throw him a few hundred thousand dollars.
10:06
You know, enough to give him every advantage as he develops...
Erik
10:07
How many wins could a bad team improve by if they signed the top 3 pitchers and top 3 hitters in free agency this offseason? Could a team with the budget space like the Phillies theoretically become a playoff favorite without giving up a single prospect if they were willing to spend the money? Or are there just not that many wins available to buy this year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:09
Maybe you're getting Hill, Chapman, Jansen...Cespedes...Bautista? Reddick? Desmond? Let's say you expect 20-25 WAR combined. That's great! Now, they're not replacing 0-WAR players. So that eats into it. You still couldn't make a bad team a good team. You could make a bad team a decent team, so you'd have a wild-card shot, but then you'd have to deal with the longer-term consequences of signing so many major free agents at once
Hill by himself is going to be fascinating, though. Literally everyone should be interested, but no one is going to want to go beyond like two guaranteed years
mtsw
10:10
Thoughts on the new Statcast "barrels" statistic? Seems good to me
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
I like it. I don't know if it teaches us much of anything new, but I love the simplicity and the marketability
10:11
It's the kind of thing that should help Statcast try to tap into the mainstream. It does less for us, the FG types, since we are already comfortable getting dirty in the spreadsheets, but Statcast isn't just for nerds
Zach
10:13
Can we talk about the incredibly out of nowhere age 31 season that Sean Rodriguez is having? He’s quietly posted an OPS just south of .900, which is almost 200 points higher than his previous career high. Is it because he’s swinging the bat with more authority? That would probably explain his career high (by about 10%) hard contact rate, but also his career high K%. Is that what’s going on, because otherwise, I’m stumped on how he’s transformed from a light hitting ace utility defender to a slugging wizard. I know it's not a full season sample size, but it's still over 300 PAs.
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
Rodriguez is another one of those guys who's boosted both his exit velocity and his launch angle. You probably haven't seen him written up because ultimately he's just a role player on a fringe contender, but this is something, along with the Matt Joyce resurgence
10:14
Now, Rodriguez has hit for power before -- as recently as 2014. Power was supposed to be a part of his game. Now he's showing more of it, along with a little more discipline. It's a good step forward, if a quiet one
Erik
10:15
Do any sub .500 teams have a >25% chance of making the playoffs next year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:15
No
But keep an eye on the Rockies anyway
Ed in Iowa
10:15
If we actually cared about the 'value' part of Most Valuable Player then wouldn't we want to include the player's compensation in our assessment? Most GMs would rather have a 7.5 win player earning $0.5M than a 9.0 win player earning $16M because you can generate more than 1.5 WAR with the $15.5M saved right? Doesn't that make Betts 'more valuable' (this year at least) than Trout?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
You're not wrong -- if you're going to talk about value, you might as well talk about EVERYTHING. Now, voters would tell you they don't care about salary -- it's supposed to be just a reward for performance. So the consensus would be that salary considerations would be off-limits. But in a sense it's a weird line to draw, and, just where exactly do you draw it?
Darius
10:17
Adam Frazier appears to have an excellent hit tool, but with zero power. Any chance he can stick at an everyday player or is his ceiling a solid utility guy, if that?
Jeff Sullivan
10:18
He's not going to start if he doesn't hit for more power. But, you know, in this day and age, we're seeing a lot more non-power types take powerful steps forward, so you don't want to totally writer Frazier off
Sean
10:18
The M's are 1.5 games back... How many of the final 10 games do the M's need to win to make it in?
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
They're actually 2 back. The Tigers just passed the Orioles
10:20
I think the M's are screwed if they do any worse than 8-2
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