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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/23/16
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T
10:20
Most surprising player driving to post season...Asdrubal. Nuts
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
I mean, sure, his second half is crazy, but he's been a pretty decent player before
T
10:21
thanks for the extra long chats and impeccably correct posts
Jeff Sullivan
10:21
I usually chat long to make up for how I'm always late. Now I'm chatting long without having been late. I have forgotten who I am
Erik
10:21
What team will improve by the most wins from 2016 to 2017? Which team will fall the furthest?
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
I'll probably hear about this but I have to say the Rangers might line up to drop the most. Meanwhile the Rays should end up around .500 and the Rockies could challenge for the wild card
Tom A.
10:25
I'm OK giving the Cy Young to someone who gave up lasers all year and got lucky. I feel strange saying "I'm going to give the Cy Young to a worse run-prevention pitcher, because he got more strike-outs." I don't think a guy who had way better defense behind him deserves the Cy young more than a guy with bad defense behind him. Help me reconcile...
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
Essentially, you should want to give the Cy Young to the pitcher who did the best job of pitching, as determined by the factors over which he has the most control
So we know pitchers have a ton of control over strikeouts and walks. Those are extremely valuable indicators
10:27
To make things more complicated, let's imagine a guy who knows he pitches in front of a good defense. Isn't it intuitive that it's more likely the pitcher might then trust his defense more, so he might pitch more to contact?
That's a tricky element; if you have a pitcher and defense working together, I don't know how you separate them out
It's kind of funny that the more we learn about baseball, the tougher and tougher it gets to vote with conviction
joey
10:28
how weird is it that chris sale missing a start for cutting up uniforms could actually have an impact on the cy young voting
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
Hey look, he's being indirectly disciplined!
Matt
10:29
One thing I notice about Sanchez is that, it seems whenever he hits a HR, he always has the same follow through. He's one handed, completely open to the pull side, and his weight is all leaning way out over the plate (drop line from his chin might be in other batter's box). Does this indicate that he's throwign his entire self into the power swing, and is that somehting that might be worrisome?
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
He definitely doesn't have the classic beautiful slugger follow-through. Like, if you look at Giancarlo Stanton, his homer swings are almost perfect. I think you can tell from certain Sanchez homers that he could stand to be more polished. He *does* end up sort of off balance and I do think it's going to prove to be something exploitable
But that being said, he's thriving now, and there's no question that he murders the ball when he hits it. Throw in all the defensive skills and you have a near-certain star
10:31
Just, he's probably not going to have an awesome K/BB in a year
Frank
10:31
Why does the Braves Rebuild write-up say the Braves need starting pitching cause Julio Teheran is their best starter? That dreadful thinking... All of the prospects given a chance so far haven't given the Org much confidence. Julio isn't the problem
Jeff Sullivan
10:31
I haven't read it yet, on account of I'm in here chatting, but the fact of the matter is that the Braves do need lots more pitching no matter what. I don't know where Teheran comes into this
Jack
10:32
Do the Mets make the playoffs?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
They should, given their opponents
Erik
10:32
Are there $/WAR figures out there for different ways of acquiring WAR? I.E. do we know quantitatively how much power is overvalued in free agency, or how much defense is undervalued?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
I don't think there's anything easy out there. At this point it's probably something you just try to adjust for in your own head
GoMs
10:33
Felix Hernandez, Edwin Diaz, and Ketel Marte for Bumgarner and Crawford. How fast do the Giants say no?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
They might put Bumgarner on the phone so he can say it himself
Jack
10:34
Any thoughts on who wins the Gold Glove awards this year? Any obscure players win it?
Jeff Sullivan
10:34
I honestly haven't yet thought about them at all, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Inciarte just won himself his first Gold Glove the other night
10:35
It would be so much fun if Colon got a Gold Glove for NL pitching
10:36
Cesar Hernandez has a shot to quietly win at NL 2B
Did you know Cesar Hernandez has been worth 4.0 WAR? I sure as shit didn't
Jeff
10:36
Why can't we all just get along??
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Most of us can
But one rotten egg can stink up a kitchen
Can't You Snell That Snell
10:39
Is there a good comp to Blake Snell? Meaning someone who had ridiculously bad command but low ERA, high K's, etc.
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Some shades of a much younger Oliver Perez
10:40
Or you could point to "prime" Jonathan Sanchez?
Tom A.
10:40
Does Rick Ankiel incident affect Cardinals pitching choice?
Jeff Sullivan
10:40
Furthest thing from their minds
10:41
Well, maybe that's not true. Something like the recent vandalism on the Racetrack Playa is probably the actual furthest thing from their minds. But I doubt they care about what happened to Ankiel
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