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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/28/18
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Jeff Sullivan
9:37
Almost a 2-to-1 chance the answer is yes!
9:38
The Rockies have the tougher final opponent, but said opponent also has little to play for, and the Rockies are at home. The Dodgers have to go on the road to face a rival that would love to destroy their chance at the playoffs entirely
Granted, the Dodgers are playing the Giants, and right now the Giants suck
9:39
5-18 in September!
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe
9:39
Who handles it better: MLB re: Russell domestic violence vs. Senate Judiciary Committee re: Kavanaugh nomination?
Jeff Sullivan
9:40
Maybe Rob Manfred ought to be in charge of Supreme Court nominations
Spicy Boy
9:40
Clayton Kershaw's fastball velo has dropped significantly, while his secondary pitches velo has remained mostly stable. He's also throwing nearly as many sliders as fastballs. Is it possible the fastball velo drop is intentional, since fastball/slider combos play better when the velocity gap is smaller?
Jeff Sullivan
9:42
I don't think so, and here's why -- Kershaw this year hasn't thrown a single pitch 94 miles per hour. Last year he threw 115 pitches at least 94 miles per hour
9:43
If a pitcher is scaling back on purpose, you'd think that every now and then, he'd air it out at 100%, maybe when he's in a jam. It sure seems like Kershaw's 100% these days isn't what it was in the past
Scott
9:44
Should the Giants trade Bumgarner this offseason, or wait until the deadline next year?
Jeff Sullivan
9:45
Bumgarner is one name to add to the list above of potential trade candidates. But realistically, I think the Giants might prefer to wait until next July. For one thing, maybe they'll want to spend the winter trying to get him extended. And for another thing, Bumgarner's stock is down, given his career-worst peripherals. Maybe he looks better next April and May
Stevil
9:48
The new posting system takes effect in November. What kind of deal might Yusei Kikuchi be looking at if/when he's posted?
Jeff Sullivan
9:48
I'm going to be honest -- I had forgotten about the details
9:49
Let me pull up some statistics real quick
9:51
Kikuchi finished fifth in innings, and eighth in K-BB%
He was ninth in Japan by FIP-
9:52
Eighth in contact rate, and his average fastball has been around 90-92
9:53
He'll be going into his age-28 season. Fastball/slider/curveball pitcher, with a show-me changeup
9:54
I can't yet predict how the market is going to respond to the new posting system, but I don't see how Kikuchi would be regarded as a potential ace. Coming into his age-29 season, Miles Mikolas was given $15.5 million over two years
9:56
My understanding is that, despite Mikolas' low total MLB service, he is indeed a free agent after 2019. Given how well he did in Japan, then, his is a relevant data point here
ben
9:56
Jeff, have you boofed yet?
Jeff Sullivan
9:56
Did anyone work yesterday?
Literally anyone?
Scott
9:56
What's a more desirable GM position, the Mets or the Giants?
Jeff Sullivan
9:57
Giants
The Mets probably have the better assortment of players, but a huge part of running a baseball team is dealing with ownership, and, well, my answer is the Giants
Lyle Overhead Bobblebay Doll
9:58
The top 9 teams in defense (per Fangraphs) are all in the NL. The bottom 9 all in the AL. Just an interesting coincidence, or does this reveal anything more/
Jeff Sullivan
9:59
When you just sort by the Def column, NL teams are given credit for the positional adjustment given to pitchers as hitters, and AL teams are given the penalty for the positional adjustment given to the DH
When you want to know about team defense, it's better to just click on the other Defense tab and look at UZR and DRS
Alex is beyond crazy
10:00
El Capitan free solo.  The actual climb obviously happened a little while ago, but I just saw the movie trailer and it gave me goosebumps.
Jeff Sullivan
10:00
There are certain climbing and mountaineering achievements that make my hands sweaty when I'm just watching them on the internet. After the fact, when I know full well that nobody dies
10:01
This is how I know that I am a coward
(Can't wait to see this movie)
(and probably throw up during it)
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy
10:02
Is there a stat that measures the quality of the starting pitchers that a starting pitcher has faced? Like maybe an average of their fWAR/100 inning or an average of their game scores or something? A friend of mine argues that the reason the Mets have scored so little for deGrom is because he's always facing the other team's ace, but I've seen almost every deGrom start, and I don't feel like he's been opposed by that many aces.
Jeff Sullivan
10:02
Nothing to my knowledge!
10:03
And my hunch would be that, yeah, there's nothing there
10:05
Although we could investigate the identities of the pitchers that deGrom has faced this year as a pitcher
10:07
Those pitchers have an average ERA- of 100, and an average FIP- of 102
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