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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/28/18
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Jeff Sullivan
10:07
So, yeah, no
10:08
Basically, if I had to turn a phrase: it's the Mets, stupid
vivalajeter
10:08
I'm running behind on podcasts after breaking my phone, but just getting around to the podcast from last week with Michael Schwimer.  Just want to say that it's outstanding, halfway through!
Jeff Sullivan
10:08
We have received a lot of feedback for that episode
Much of it from people in the game
Much of it negative
Take that for whatever it's worth
10:09
Schwimer is a divisive guy
Scott
10:09
Where do the Mariners go from here? Tear it down and try to rebuild, or give it one last shot with their aging core?
Jeff Sullivan
10:10
I don't think it's even really up to the Mariners, as it were -- I'm pretty sure there's an ownership mandate to try to make the playoffs
It helps that the Mariners have a decent amount of club control on the roster. They're not going to be devastated by free agency. But clearly, they need a lot of help, help the farm system cannot provide
10:11
They're in a greatly unenviable spot
Gunshy Whip CoinStar
10:12
What's your take on Tyler White's future? Was cool to see his success with two strikes in Craig Edwards' piece.
Jeff Sullivan
10:13
Above-average hitter who's overachieving. Not an asset in the field or on the bases. There are worse starting first basemen in baseball, but given that White is already almost 28, I think he needs to get a shot *now*
Put him on the Rockies!
tim
10:14
What is jacob degrom's second half war?
Jeff Sullivan
10:14
4.5 by regular WAR, 3.8 by RA9-WAR
I like when the questions are easy to answer
Stevil
10:15
Should the Diamondbacks extend the QO to Pollock if an extension can't be made relatively soon?
Jeff Sullivan
10:16
Yeah, even with the second-half decline, I'd still be okay with paying Pollock like $18 million for a year
10:17
Good player, still a rangy CF. Little harm
Dave
10:18
Who do you think has the best playoff rotation in the NL? Dodgers have Kershaw & Buehler, but the Cubs starters have put it together over the last month.
Jeff Sullivan
10:19
Even over the past month, the Cubs and Dodgers are basically tied in rotation ERA- and FIP-, and the Dodgers have a huge edge in xFIP-
And, of course, over the full season, the Dodgers look much better
I give the Dodgers the advantage, if, that is, they make it into the playoffs at all
Dustin
10:20
Will the Braves win another game in 2018?
Jeff Sullivan
10:20
Yes
Scott
10:21
The Angels seemed to make good moves last offseason and still finished nowhere close to the playoffs. Can they make themselves contenders this offseason?
Jeff Sullivan
10:22
I think the Angels knew all along it was going to come down to pitching health. Heaney basically stayed healthy, but everyone else ran into something. And now they know for a fact that Ohtani won't throw a pitch in 2019
Best-case scenario, to me, is that they end up with something like a true-talent .500 ballclub. And then you hope for a little luck and a WC spot
10:23
At least, for them, the farm is quickly improving. Could be a real club again in 2020
squeeze bunt
10:24
Do you think arm injuries could have a quadratic or even s-curve relationship with use?  So as a pitcher throws more pitches there is a point where risk of injuries tapers off for a while, then starts to rise again.
Jeff Sullivan
10:24
I have absolutely no idea
I would assume, most simply, that every single pitch thrown increases injury risk by some very small amount
10:25
But I can't prove that. And there's only really injury risk if you're throwing at 100%. At, like, 75%, you might get sore the next day, but you're not shredding your tissue
Lyle Overhead Bobblebay Doll
10:26
I'm guessing most stat-y baseball fans and analysts would be excellent front office people if they time travelled to something like 1970 with the information we have in 2018. But how do you think you would do in, like, 2005-2008?
Jeff Sullivan
10:26
Would still do well in that window
Gets a lot more difficult after like 2010 or thereabouts
10:27
Going back 10 or 15 years, you'd be able to better understand expected statistics, surplus value, etc
10:28
I could've built an awesome baseball team :(
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