You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/28/18
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
Joey
10:29
Is Nick Pivetta going to pitch to his great peripherals next season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:30
Pivetta ranks in the 76th percentile in expected wOBA allowed
He ranks in the 36th percentile in actual wOBA allowed
There might be something to be said about his performance with runners on base, but, mostly, I think he just got hurt by the Phillies' dreadful team defense
10:31
He wasn't great out of the stretch in 2017, though. So you can't put it all on balls just dropping in
Tom
10:33
Regardless of how their season ends, what should the Cardinals do in the offseason? Keep searching for a middle of the order bat? Or go all in on run prevention and go for pitching and defense?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
I don't think the lineup projects to be much of a problem. Maybe the offense could use a little tweaking, but this team needs a bullpen. Now, perhaps the Cardinals figure they can improve the bullpen internally. Bullpens, as you know, are virtually impossible to predict. But that's been the great weakness this season. And I still don't entirely trust Jordan Hicks
Ben
10:35
Willians Astudillo....does he make his first all-star team next year or in 2020?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
I expect that they're going to name the All-Star Game after him
Raymond
10:36
How much is Rizzo's horrendous April weighing down his season stats? Seems like hes been mostly back to form from May on. Do you think hes declining?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Rizzo has been great pretty much ever since. Not coincidentally, in April, he was dealing with a back issue
Now, on the one hand, you could say that injury problems tend not to get better as players age. But Rizzo only recently turned 29 years old, and I'm not yet worried about his skills when he's at or near 100%
O'Brien
10:37
Can German Marquez be a top 15 SP next year?
Jeff Sullivan
10:37
Right now, he happens to rank 12th among major-league pitchers in WAR
10:38
He ranks 20th in RA9-WAR
So the answer is a definite yes
Related question: Will German Marquez be recognized and appreciated as a top-15 SP next year?
Almost certainly not
squeeze bunt
10:39
What would it take to for the Padres get de Grom and/or Thor from the Mets?  I generally think these type of questios are fun, but I think it's useful to put actual prospect value with highly valued MLB assets.  Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Let's just dismiss entirely right now the possibility of getting deGrom *and* Syndergaard
Let's focus just on the latter
10:41
Syndergaard has three years of club control left. They're all arb years, and he already went to arb once as a super-two player
10:42
One way this doesn't exactly match up: the Padres could move a young outfielder already in the bigs, but the Mets have Nimmo, Conforto, and Cespedes, to say nothing of Bruce and Lagares
10:44
Chris Archer was recently traded with 3+ years remaining of club control
10:45
I think that was generally regarded as a major win for the Rays, but it's a worthwhile case. Archer has questions about his ERA. Syndergaard has questions about his health
10:48
I'm going to start by volunteering...Chris Paddack, Austin Hedges, and Anderson Espinoza
Lots to quibble with! But I think it's reasonable. And these things are tough to imagine on the fly
10:49
Here's how Paddack and Espinoza currently rank among Padres prospects https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2018-in-season-prospect-...
Tommy Pham
10:49
Will I keep up this type of performance in 2019?
Jeff Sullivan
10:49
Since getting traded to the Rays, Pham has put up a 191 wRC+ in 160 plate appearances
10:50
His BABIP over the same span of time has been a comical .442, granted
But the power is real. Pham's a really good player. The Rays made a smart gamble, and Pham could and should be the best position player they've got in 2019
10:51
Let's hear it for xwOBA!
Anthony
10:51
How would you deploy the Yankee pitching staff in the AL Wild Card Game if you were Aaron Boone?
Jeff Sullivan
10:53
Severino for at least one turn. Maybe let him finish the third or fourth, depending on circumstances. And then you bullpen it. No team is better equipped to do so than the Yankees
Dale
10:54
Will Max Muncy and Jesus Aguilar backslide hard next season?
Jeff Sullivan
10:54
You could argue they already have. Aguilar's second-half wRC+ is 99. Muncy's is a still-terrific 139, but his strikeout rate has gone up ten points
10:55
Granted, Muncy is also tenth in baseball in expected wOBA. Tenth, out of everyone with at least 250 plate appearances. So while I think a certain amount of regression is right to factor in, as pitchers learn about weaknesses, Muncy has demonstrated to me that he's legitimately good
vivalajeter
10:57
Now that deGrom has tied Nola in bWAR, do you think there will be people pushing for Nola to win the CY award?  It seems like some people anchor to their position in August, and don't adjust even though deGrom has been lights out every 5 days while Scherzer and Nola have added a couple clunkers (relatively speaking).
Jeff Sullivan
10:58
At Baseball Reference, Nola is given a laughably huge boost on account of the Phillies' bad team defense. The Phillies do have a bad team defense, but Nola himself has a .254 BABIP. He's been hurt by far the least out of all the regular Phillies pitchers
Connecting…