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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 9/30/16
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Nate
10:25
thoughts on Ortiz's farewell in New York last night?
Jeff Sullivan
10:25
The Yankees did well, although the Orioles made me laugh the most
Kolten
10:26
I'm saddened that more writers aren't talking about giving the Cy Young to Fernandez. The award is a bit of a triviality in light of everything else, but it would be nice anyway, and he's clearly very deserving of it.
Jeff Sullivan
10:28
The situation right now remains a little raw and given what happened, to write about a damn seasonal award feels so insignificant. As insensitive as it might sound the accident should have no bearing on how the voting plays out. There's no reason for it to, right? A case can be made for Fernandez, sure, and those cases will be made, but this conversation really shouldn't take place until there's more distance between the present day and the nightmare day
The problem *there* being ballots are due in just a few days. So, yeah
10:30
Giving the Cy Young to Fernandez isn't going to ease the pain at all. Maybe he'll win and maybe he won't, but a million nice gestures won't alleviate the suffering
Undecided
10:30
With all the homers being hit, I was curious what the preseason projections said. As of now there are 107 players with 20+ HR (and 5 more sitting on 19). The fans projected 84 players to hit 20+ (from a player pool that only included players who 5 or more ballots were cast) and Depth Charts projected 69 with 20+.
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
Homers homers everywhere, nor any drop to drink
David
10:32
If you could choose to keep Dipoto or go with the unknown second choice candidate for when he was hired, what would you do?
Jeff Sullivan
10:32
Stick with what's in place. Disrupting a whole organization is really...disruptive
Drum roll please
10:33
Does a hot Mets team win the world series?
Jeff Sullivan
10:33
No
but, sure
They will have a small chance, but they will have a small chance
Pretty Tony
10:34
If Britton wins Cy Young, Kershaw doesn't, and Betts wins MVP, have we really come very far at all? I thought Dave's piece (comparing Mookie and Trout's number of outs) made abundantly clear (in accessible terms) that Trout has had the better year. Is this an indictment of the advanced community's ability to popularize their ideas or just evidence of how incredibly slowly the baseball community moves towards new ideas?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
I think the conversation has very clearly advanced in the past several years. Sabermetrics at this point is practically mainstream. Even columns that argue *against* using WAR still cite WAR as a valid metric, which is so far from where we were a decade ago. Things take time and there's always going to be room for disagreement but if you don't think the general baseball dialogue has progress, you're not paying attention
Nate
10:35
what do you see alex reyes' floor/ceiling looking like?
Jeff Sullivan
10:35
Real estate agent / Hall of Fame
David
10:36
If Ben Zobrist declines really gradually and wins the next 3 WS with good postseason stats, does he have a shot at the Hall?
Jeff Sullivan
10:36
Pretty much zero realistic chance
Zobrist is criminally underrated even within his own era. He's not even a blip across the whole of baseball history
Cubbies
10:37
How concerned are you on Sonny Gray's arm health for 2017? Is it only a matter of time till the UCL snaps or does he go the way of Tanaka? He says in the 2 months off he sharpened his mechanics and got back to where he was.
Jeff Sullivan
10:38
Elevated concern, but not maximum concern. More likely than not I think he's pretty good next year for around 180 innings
Buzz Bissinger's Negligee
10:39
Alternating handed batting lineup. Overrated, right?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
Overrated, but still useful, and the kind of thing that gets talked about a lot come playoff time, when the focus is on individual games and matchups
POWERARMS
10:39
Could homers be up because of the prevalence of POWERARMS?
Jeff Sullivan
10:39
no
Dan
10:40
Who is the Cubs preferred NLDS opponent? I used to think the Cardinals, but the Mets are dropping like flies with injuries.
Jeff Sullivan
10:41
If possible, you take the Cardinals, because they lack the Syndergaard factor
Wakawaka
10:42
Alan Nathan has published some evidence that seems to contradict the "juiced ball theory". Specifically, exit velocities for liners haven't increased the way they have for fly balls. In fact, they've pretty much stayed the same. Is this enough to abandon the belief that something about the baseball is driving the spike in HR/FB rates? There seems to be a lot of evidence in the other direction, but Nathan's research looks like a pretty compelling counter to me.
Jeff Sullivan
10:42
Alan Nathan is much smarter than I am, and the baseball thing remains a conspiracy theory. I think it would be most fascinating if this *weren't* the fault of a different ball, so I'm in favor of other evidence
Shawn
10:43
There's no reason to believe that Britton is more deserving of the AL Cy Young than Kershaw is deserving of the NL Cy Young, correct?
Jeff Sullivan
10:43
You have to look past the innings totals -- from the voter perspective, Britton gets credit for having been healthy and available all season long
Comin's and Goins
10:43
How well do you think Miguel Cabrera would hit with your body? More to the point: how much better than you would he hit?
Jeff Sullivan
10:44
With something similar to my current body, I got DH'd for in high school
So Miguel Cabrera would do a lot better than that
Ken
10:44
My Yankees were eliminated but we basically ended the season by sweeping the Red Sox and not allowing them to celebrate a Division title on Yankee Stadium Field...I'm perfectly alright with this ending to the season!
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
I think the Red Sox still should've celebrated on the field, just to be assholes
Noel
10:45
Now that it appears giants even year voodoo is wearing off is the silver lining that in 2017 might field their strongest ever year team bc they might actually be proactive this offseason in signing a closer and maybe a bat at 3b or left field? Also on a limb who you think they end up with at closer ?
Jeff Sullivan
10:45
Don't write them off just yet. They've got Bumgarner, Cueto, and the best contact-hitting lineup in either league
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