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July 8th BHQ chat
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Ray Murphy
11:56
Happy last-Monday-of-the-first-half, everyone! I'm here a little early, so might as well get going.... lots of good questions in the queue!
Dave
11:59
Hi Ray!  Thanks for doing the chat.  In a 10 team H2H pts league, drop Pivetta for Springs?
Ray Murphy
11:59
Lots of Springs questions in the queue here. I can understand why... rehab seems to be going smoothly, he'll be back soon after the break. (Related, it looks like we need to bump up Springs' IP projection.)

Maybe some Sox fan bias here, but I don't think I'd cut Pivetta for Springs.
raider34
12:03
Morning Do you think Hendriks is going fantasy relevant this year? Thanks Don
Ray Murphy
12:03
The path to Hendriks (Liam, for the casual reader) getting to fantasy relevance this year was him rehabbing his way to Boston by August, with Jansen getting traded at the deadline. Local Sox fan perspective follows: with the way the Sox are playing right now, it would be malpractice to trade Jansen (while holding a wild-card spot). If Jansen stays, there's very little relevance left for Hendriks.

Let's not forget that Hendriks has been through A LOT, too. Getting him through to the end of the season fully healthy, with some confidence in his body/arm and lined up for a normal offseason, is probably all anyone is looking for here. Good chance of fantasy relevance in 2025, tho.
will
12:05
not sold on soriano as a starter for angels. does he look like closer materu=ial to you long  term ofr angels? thank you
Ray Murphy
12:05
He's certainly got the velo, and the GB tilt. I'd like to see more swing-and-miss, though maybe some pitch mix changes would bring that out in a bullpen role. But, the Angels are a) a mess, b) always looking for starters, and c) have some other potential closer prospects in Joyce and Crouse. So I would think they'll give Soriano every chance in the rotation.
guest
12:07
Dynasty H2H OBP, TB, QS, K/9. Minors are J. Caminero, DeLauter, Mayo, and Keith. Would you move a minor for an SP like G. Kirby? or a Trout? Am I better to just hold these young players?  My CF is Judge but no back up.  My SP is Steele, Sale, Nola, S. Gray, Cease, and Ragans.  How much should I value these minor leaguers in this format?
Ray Murphy
12:07
I'd trade any of those kids for a Kirby (I like your pitching as-is, but can never have enough, right?). Trout a tougher call, but I'd at least move Caminero for him.

Disclosure: I'm more of a "trade your prospects for what you need" guy rather than a "wait on them forever" guy.
Sean
12:11
What do you think about Schwellenbach so far? His skills look legit!
Ray Murphy
12:11
Yeah, he's flashing some skills. I happened to be watching the national Fox game on Saturday, they were talking to Sale in the dugout while SS was pitching. Sale was just talking about how athletic Schwell is (former SS, etc) and Schwell came off the mound for a dribbler and made as good a play as you'll ever see on one of those... just missed getting the guy at 1st.

Anyway, Sale's point is that the kid hasn't been pitching that long and is still figuring things out. Thought it was a pretty good take overall.
guest
12:13
H2H dynasty OBP. Have Arraez and Keith at 2B. What do you think of their value long term in this format?
Ray Murphy
12:13
I think we pretty well know what Arraez is at this point. OBP format actually kills his value, b/c his OBP isn't nearly as elite as his BA, so his biggest contribution gets muted.

I love what we're seeing from Keith over the last month. Not sure whether he'll be an OBP asset, but sometimes that's hard to judge when he's hitting everything as he is now.
guest
12:13
H2H dynasty OBP.  Have both J. Caminero and C. Mayo in minors with J. Ramirez as starter at 3B. Should I move a young 3B? If so, which one? What kind of value?
Ray Murphy
12:13
I'd move Caminero from this group. Can't really speculate on what you could get.
guest
12:14
H2H Dynasty QS. Keep B. Miller or cut bait while he still has some name value among the rebuilding teams?
Ray Murphy
12:14
Bobby or Bryce?
Dansby Swanson
12:17
Am I cooked? I think I might be cooked...
Ray Murphy
12:17
I don't know, Dansby... "cooked" seems harsh. You're only 30, you're apparently healthy (though I do wonder about that sprained knee from back in May.) Your skills don't look THAT bad. Ryan had you on his All Second Half team last week... and if you don't deliver on that, I'll probably have you as a nice buy-low for 2025.
Willie in NJ
12:19
It's looking like another lost year for Jordan Walker.  How would you rate/rank him if he was still prospect eligible?  Is he still hold in keeper leagues?  Thanks.
Ray Murphy
12:19
I'm not the best person to answer this question... but just looking at his stat line/career path: he's still crazy young (22 this year) and doesn't really have that much exposure to the high minors (119 games in AA, 80 or so in AAA). What he's doing is disappointing, but it's way too soon to write him off.
Don Dringus
12:22
OBP league - how would you rank Santander, Arozarena, Semien, Bregman ROS? Are they all in the same tier?
Ray Murphy
12:22
I'd say Semien, Arozarena, Santander, Bregman. But run them through the Custom Draft Guide and see what you get for your exact league parameters. I am very encouraged by Arozarena getting going over the last month, though.
Don Dringus
12:23
Is Eloy Jimenez broken? He looks awful under the hood
Alpha SoyBoy
12:23
Eloy Jimenez or Gavin Sheets ROS?
Ray Murphy
12:23
Eloy seems physically broken, yes. Not enamored with Sheets either, but if you force me to pick one, I'll go Sheets.
Alpha SoyBoy
12:25
Does Wallner get a real shot this time or will he spend more time on the bench?
Ray Murphy
12:25
He wasn't really hitting in the minors. I think he's just here as depth right now. If he gets the power swing going he could take time from Larnach, but he's going to have to earn that (and there's not much sign of it.)
Wade
12:26
12-team H2H Points Redraft League. I have realmuto out and have some options for a replacement. Who do you like for this week and potentially ROS if JT doesn't make it back for August and Sept - Baily, Moreno, or Ruiz?
Ray Murphy
12:26
Moreno's looked good since coming off the IL. If available, I'd grab him.
Koz
12:31
Hi Ray...ok...I've tried to be patient...but the in the world is going on with Julio Rodriguez?  Do his metrics look at disappointing as his surface stats?  Is there anything worth hanging on to?
Ray Murphy
12:31
If you go to his Playerlink page, Monthly tab... his first half wasn't actually all that different from last year's first half. And we all remember he went bananas in the second half. We can't count on that again, obviously... but I don't think there's anything tragically wrong/unfixable in his metrics.
Beano
12:35
Hi Ray! NL 10 team 5x5 I need HRs. Do you think N Jones and Suwinski will start hitting, or should I look to trade or FAAB guys like Yepez and hope?
Ray Murphy
12:35
Suwinski showing some signs in the last week... but these high-K guys can be really streaky. Jones is a tough case... less contact, more ground balls, and hr/f cratered. If there's a profile of someone who's getting killed by the deadened ball, this would be it.
Guest
12:37
Hi Ray, is it time to bail on Bichette in a 12-team roto?  He has negative BPV over the last 30 days (.239 XBA, 71% ct, 99 XPX) and his Statcast numbers are putrid. I have Correa and don't think Bichette is even replacement level for our 2 DH slots. Do you see any reason to think he can turn this around?
Ray Murphy
12:37
I'd certainly be playing Correa over him right now. But the skills aren't THAT bad: Ct% and HctX are close to prior levels, xBA is .252 vs the .225 actual BA. GLF is mostly what it's always been. I wouldn't bet on a full rebound, but he's not THIS bad either.
Guest
12:40
Hi Ray,  is the George Springer revival heralded in the HQ user forums for real? Predictions on his second half?
Ray Murphy
12:40
Memo to Julio, N Jones, etc... Springer shows how just a couple of hot weeks can make everything better. And yes, I think Springer's back at this point. I think you can expect a normal second half from him... our proj is .254-9 HR-6 SB... I'd even give him double-digit HR.
Guest
12:40
Hey Ray!  12 & 14 team leagues, Nolan Jones keep or cut?  He owns his skill set correct, with almost 400 ABs in 2023.
Ray Murphy
12:40
See above. Seems like he doesn't like the deadened ball?
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