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Ray Murphy
12:03
Happy Monday everyone! Brent's off today, so this is Ray filling his usual Monday chat spot. No worries, I'll still try to answer questions addressed to him... but if they're prospect questions, I might just hand-wave them, as those are his jam rather than mine. On the other hand, I'm sure I'll be sharing my Sox fan perspective on the Devers/SF deal. Let's get into it...
Bob
12:06
I only have 13 transactions left for the season. Should I drop Taj Bradley for Sandy Alcantara?
Ray Murphy
12:06
I've been panning Alcantara for a while now, but it does seem like something clicked recently... vel ticked up, control snapped into place. Now, those two starts were the Pirates and Rockies, so let's not get carried away just yet. But I'll be watching closely tonight.

I don't think I would be in a rush to get away from Bradley either. Last31 splits show some pretty good skills there. He might benefit from being on the road virtually all summer too.
Peter
12:08
Hi Ray,

16 team H2H points league. $430 cap, 40 player roster - 23 active & 17 bench. Deep league. We start 5 SPs and 6 RPs with the caveat that RPs don't start - RPs only. Of particular pitching significance is that QS=8 pts, W=L=4 pts. QS are vary important. I rely a lot on HQ's SP Match-Up Ratings.

My top 4 SP are almost no-brainers: Valdez @ATH, Bubic @TEX, @SD, Woo vBOS, Boyd vSEA. I admit the Valdez start gives me the willies in that stadium. 

The 5th SP is between Bibee @ATH, May vWAS and Yarbrough, vLAA. Yarbrough is valued the highest (1.5) but his QS record is poor 2 QS in 7 GS. HOWEVER, he tossed a PQS-4 in a late May start versus LAA.

Go with Yarbrough?

Thanks as always for your efforts on our behalf.
Ray Murphy
12:08
I think just about everything has to go right for Yarbrough to get a QS in any given start. I'd probably go with Bibee, though I understand you may think that's too much exposure to @ATH with Valdez already.
Spooge
12:10
Is Altuve looking better than earlier this season or do I sell high after his recent surge?
Ray Murphy
12:10
His L31 numbers are back in line with maybe not the best version of Altuve, but a pretty darn useful version. I'd be open to selling, but wouldn't be peddling him urgently.
Dave
12:12
Worth dropping one of Met's Canning or Megill for Birdsong, Liberatore or Casparius who may be going the Dodger rotation.  Who to drop?  Who to add?
Ray Murphy
12:12
Canning looks like Cinderella at 11:57pm. He's the one to sell. I really like what we've seen from Liberatore, he'd probably be my first add there.
Talisker
12:13
NL only rotis keeper deep league. Need to replace Chapman. Take a shot on Brady House?
Thanks.
Ray Murphy
12:13
Absolutely. Unless you have rights to bid on Devers. :)
Frank
12:16
Hard not to be impressed with Brandon Walter's skills. Do we think this is sustainable?
Ray Murphy
12:16
The scouting report from his callup was pretty clearly in the camp that his junk-balling approach shouldn't work in the majors. So far, it's working pretty darn well. I'd be willing to take a shot, but get away quickly if the scouting report gets around and the worm turns.
Jerry
12:17
Does Cade Horton have any upside? He's been decent so far.
Ray Murphy
12:17
I mean, he was #47 on our HQ100 prospect list this past offseason. He's a legit prospect with upside, not just some callup who's getting by with smoke and mirrors. Prospect growth isn't linear, so no guarantees as to how and whether it gets better than this... but yeah, he has upside.
will
12:19
AL only 4x4  ros. detmers or whitlock, barger or vargas, uceta or erceg and B baldwin or max muncy thank you!
Ray Murphy
12:19
Whitlock > Detmers unless solely interested in saves.
Vargas > Barger
Erceg > Uceta
Milo
12:21
Happy Monday, folks! Brent … I’m wondering what’s happening with Kirk. Is this a breakout? I’m in a unique H2H league with AVG/OBP/SLG/R/RBI/SB which makes me wonder if he’ll outearn a guy like Willson Contreras.
Ray Murphy
12:21
I'd pump the brakes a bit... contact is great, but it's always been great. Same for HctX (hard contact). But .316 BA/.254 xBA, with the recent hot streak being fueled by a 38% hit rate. I don't think he can sustain this BA.
Hesh
12:23
Are we at the point of the season where Michael Harris II owners should be shopping him around to anyone that will still pay for the name?
Ray Murphy
12:23
I was hoping Acuna return would light his fire/ignite that whole lineup. I still think there's some hope for a rebound, but 2022-23 starting to feel like it was a long time ago.
Sal V
12:26
Brent, what are your thoughts on Junior Caminero so far? Is he already a better hitter than, say, Austin Riley?!
Ray Murphy
12:26
Power's been nice, but underlying skills are even better.. 80% contact from a rookie is very appealing, 24% seems unsustainably low, .246 BA vs. .297 xBA is eye-popping. Not sure what to do with the Riley comp, as that's an odd one for me... but Caminero's doing everything we could have reasonably hoped for at this point.
David
12:28
12 TM Keeper, 6x6 Roto walks/Hlds/ 7th place and trailing by a lot. Looking at trading Freddie Freeman. Could you name a several trade targets at 1B as I am looking to the future. Thank you as a BHQ Sub
Ray Murphy
12:28
Really hard to answer in a vacuum... Caglianone, Eldridge, Kurtz come to mind off the top of my head. M. Vargas mentioned above, really do think he's breaking out before our eyes. Really liked Michael Busch coming into this year and he's quietly meeting expectations.
Rick
12:30
Schanuel hitting well, but little power even with recent homerun. Long-term term, how would you rank Schanuel, Manzardo, N.Lowe, Mayo? Anyone stand out positively or negativity?
Ray Murphy
12:30
I defended Schanuel in our forums last night... the OBP is legit, he's a big dude, the power might eventually come. More likely when you start by controlling the strike zone the way he does. Sort of a Kevin Youkilis starter kit.

BAL seems to finally be giving Mayo a chance, very curious to see if he can get something to click.

I still want to like Manzardo, but we wrote in the Forecaster "Extreme FB% with only average ct% creates risk of BA slumps"... and that's exactly what's happening to him.
rockford
12:32
Who is Ryan Bergert and should I invest a decent amount of fab on him this week (NL only)?
Ray Murphy
12:32
Callup report from April. Based on that, don't blow your FAAB.
rockford
12:33
Brad Lord v. Jose Ferrer in saves/holds NL only league.  Ferrer seems to keep blowing up... Which one is less hurtful?
Ray Murphy
12:33
Yeah, these RP need to be "first do no harm". Ferrer got off to a rough start, found his groove for a month or so and now had a couple of meltdowns again. I don't love either of these guys... maybe curtain #3?
Dave
12:38
Is it time to move on from Jordan Romano to Strahm or Kierkring or some other part time closer?
Ray Murphy
12:38
Not necessarily. I think we always knew it would be a roller coaster with the Phils. If you're content with having a part-timer, I think Romano still meets that description. But it depends who you're comparing him to, whether it's someone with potential to become more than that. Tough to answer in a vacuum.
rockfish
12:40
NL only.  Seems like Jerar Encarnacion is a definite drop now with Devers on board?   I can get creative and pickup C Pages, FAlvarez or NFortes (and move WContreras to 1B) to replace Jerar -- which C is better ROS?  or should I stick with Jerar?
Ray Murphy
12:40
Not a lot of signs of it at the moment, but I would think Alvarez has to get hot at some point. I'd probably try him.
Chris
12:42
Luis Castillo getting more whiffs but  the gb rate is not near his career norms. Once known as a very slow starter, could there be a solid 2H here or should we be fading?
Ray Murphy
12:42
His GB% tilt really went away the last couple of years, this isn't a new development. He's been really good over last month, seems to be rounding into form. I'd ride him.
rocky
12:44
NL only.  Jansen Junk worth picking up?  His numbers on BHQ don't seem too bad even though it is MIA.  Ryne Nelson v. JJunk ROS?
Ray Murphy
12:44
Junk's hanging some interesting numbers, but I like Nelson a lot too and he comes with better team context.
Owen
12:45
Matt Shaw doesn't feel rosterable in a 12 team mixed, with the lack of thump, agree?
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