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June29 2020 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:03
OK, gang, welcome back! We did a couple of these Monday noon chats before ... well, when the world was different. In any event, we'll aim to continue these chats each week at this time, and may add another during the week. Lots to talk about, and we have a twist .. both Ray and I will be here, and we'll see for now if both of us can chime in on questions. Let's go!
Buster
12:08
Are there ANY valid Puig rumors? Is everyone just saying - eh, were good with what we got. Surely, he could help lots of teams.
Brent Hershey
12:08
Nothing definitive that I know of, but have to feel like with the expanded rosters and the transaction freeze lifted, he'll get a shot somewhere. And NL teams at least, now have another "spot" via the DH to play him.
Ray Murphy
12:08
Same here, I think he finds a home. Have to remember there are a lot of new dynamics here: once camps get opened this week, someone can have him in for a workout more easily, etc. Assuming he's not pricing himself out of the market, he can help a lot of teams that might be on the bubble of contending. And I would think even established contenders might welcome some additional depth.
Rich
12:12
Hi Brent and Ray. Thanks for having having this chat today. My 10-team keeper league (roto) is freezing for this year as our draft was scheduled for late March, and we are doing a one-off "fun" redraft league for the shortened season. We are going to try a season-long points league, since we have never played the format and want to shake things up.

What are some things worth keeping in mind for points leagues? I know points leagues favor pitching - are there any arms out there you'd recommend?
Brent Hershey
12:12
Hearing a lot of this going on ... especially in long-term keeper leagues, where roster 'freezes' are taking effect and the group is opting for some other alternative. Makes sense, when team are in various stages of rebuilds. In fact my one home league is going this also.
For points leagues specifically, if you're a BHQ subscriber, we had two articles in March on points leagues. But things shifted a bit with short-season. Getting your hands on an ace is helpful; and on the offensive side, not being too worried about position scarcity other than catcher. Good luck!
Ray Murphy
12:12
Aside: I've heard a lot of this "keeper leagues doing a one-off standalone year", and I love it. Think its a great idea.

My piece of advice for this question, but in general, is that maxing out every IP and AB is going to massively important in just about every format. Points leagues already skew that way (no ratio categories), but even moreso this year, I think. And it may be less pitching-heavy than usual as the innings figure to be more spread out across entire staffs.
Duke Lacrosse
12:12
So, how do we approach an auction.. load up on the best hitters and hope for the best in pitching?? I'm 'thinking' that's they way to go.. thoughts?
Ray Murphy
12:15
That's my default position for now, just based on what I'm seeing in the projections (https://www.baseballhq.com/content/gms-office-flattening-projections-c...). I'm willing to reconsider, either globally or at least on an individual basis, as we start to get info about how fast pitchers are ramping up, how many pitches they might be able to throw their first couple of turns, etc. But it seems far safer to put your big investments into bats. At least that's my current thinking.
Brent Hershey
12:20
Mostly agree with this approach (load up on hitters). Caveat is if you're in a position to grab a top ace, that's probably defensible, too ... the Cole/Scherzer types could have more additional value than the next tier down due to high K totals, history of health (well, maybe not Max in that case) that would seem like aid them in getting stretched out innings wise quicker than others.
William
12:24
I really liked Freddy Peralta coming into the year, and he was high on my target list. How do you guys feel about him with the Brewers facing only the NL Central and AL Central?
Brent Hershey
12:24
Yeah, lots of interesting dominoes to consider with the regional schedule. Peralta specifically is a high-skills guy who we liked as a late round flyer (though his Ks come mainly from deception instead of high velo arsenal). Now, might have some more appeal, if in terms of shorter outings by SP he in general gets more of a chance. Add in some of the 'meh' AL Central clubs, and there's some appeal here. STILL ... going to depend a lot on which teams/players get hot, and which ones start cold. That will be a general observation across the board this season.
Ray Murphy
12:24
There's so much to be gleaned from "spring training 2" here... just given Counsell's history, and the personnel on hand here, this team just seems primed to go with some version of "bullpenning"... not just for the start of the season, but maybe all the way through. If so, roles matter a ton... Peralta's value is ruined if he goes the first 3-4 IP. But if he's in a Yarbrough role as 2nd man in, he could be a bonanza. Same for Burnes, Houser, Lindblom, Suter, Brett Anderson... I can envision a model where Woodruff is the only 'real' SP and the rest of this group is all operating on some tag-team model.
Dave
12:25
I'm a Tigers fan and watch a lot of Matt Boyd's performances. He was dominant in early 2019 but tailed off after that. The Tigers have favorable matchups with the AL Central and NL Central - do you like the chances of a mini "breakout" for Boyd?
Ray Murphy
12:25
Yes, I'd say Boyd is someone who's stock is improved in this format. I'm intrigued by the skills. The schedule seems helpful, as you say. And the biggest knock on him was going to be a lack of Wins, but now Wins are going to be tough for all SP... so he's gained on the field there too.

I'm conceivably interested in whichever of Manning/Mize/Skubal get into the rotation, too. Not at the same price point as Boyd, of course... but worth a flier.
Brent Hershey
12:25
Seconds on what Ray said on Boyd, with the caveat that  as I mentioned in the Peralta question elsewhere, the Centrals do seem a bit soft team wise overall -- but facing Detroit is part of that equation that obviously Boyd doesn't benefit from. But his advanced secondary pitches and flashes of dominance (like 1H 2019) are types of things to look for as we all try to catching lightning in this 2020 bottle. In the words, Boyd has shown us he can dominate for short stretches -- the fact that he's done it in the past could be a tiebreaker in selecting him in 2020 in hopes he can do it again.
Timmy
12:36
What is your plan-of-attack for the first three rounds in drafts over the next several weeks? I've been going back and forth about getting an ace and then loading up on some pitching.
Ray Murphy
12:36
Your thoughts seem to match mine at this juncture. I'd entertain a Cole/deGrom if I found myself in the right spot in the snake to get one of them (and I assume they'll both be ADP risers this month, so you'll have to get them early). But other than those two, I think I'm likely to be pounding hitters for the first 3-5 rounds, maybe more. Reason being, I think the gap between the ace/sub-ace tier of SP and the mid-round pitching has been flattened considerably by the loss of innings/counting stats.
Brent Hershey
12:36
Yes, I echo that. The other option I think if you can't get an elite ace is to go in with a list of reliable (mostly veteran, likely) innings-guys who have proven they can handle volume. If you can figure out how far you can let the likes of Grienke, Nola, Berrios, etc fall and still snag one or two, I think there's some hidden value there. Both in accumulating counting stats, but also being more likely to hit the 5-inning win potential sooner than others. Don't want to go overboard on this approach—esp not chasing wins—but this group COULD have a slight advantage in that aspect (give you a bit more chances for that SP win).
Rich
12:36
Hi Brent.  Our 12-team H2H league with daily roster moves converted to Roto for this year only.  What, if any, strategic implications does that have in terms of roster construction and/or daily lineups?  Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:36
Thanks for dropping in, Rich. Well, seems weird to say this here over a 60-G season, but you'll need to shift your expectations a bit towards the "long game" in terms of scoring. You've probably considered that, but the fact that you'll have time to make up for lost ground in one terrible week in HR or whatever category is probably the biggest change. With daily transactions, you still will want to play some matchups of course, but with your stars at least, I would say resist the urge to sit em even if they get off to a slow start, for instance. Now, not the same as a 162-G patience, but likely a bit more than your weekly H2H required in the past.
Ray Murphy
12:36
Spinning Brent's advice on its axis a bit, or maybe making a different assumption about your mindset: assuming your H2H was weekly scoring, you had the option to just give up on a category for the week if it was lost. You just start over again next week. Without that luxury, you're going to have to figure out how to handle a category that's going bad for 2, 3, 4 weeks in a row. And it's not like there's a lot of time to recover... by the time you identify a problem area, it's by definition a serious problem! So, from a roster construction point of view (assuming you haven't drafted yet), you may want to focus on building a more balanced roster than you might have in H2H, where you could fade SB or Sv at the draft table.
Ray Murphy
12:37
Dean

Who are you willing to take a chance on, now that we're in a shortened season with the dynamics laid out, that you wouldn't have back in March?
Ray Murphy
12:40
For me, this is the guys who I didn't trust to stay healthy for 162, but I might be willing to trust for 60. Adalberto Mondesi comes to mind right off the top, esp. because he can be such a game-changer with SB over a short season. The risk was too high for me in March, but I might reconsider that now. I'm sure there are others of that ilk, too.
Brent Hershey
12:45
Also -- and this will be MLB-team specific, so following these narratives will be important -- there will be some prospects who are close to the majors who are more likely now to get a shot due to both the shortened season and the fact that there won't be minor league games. SP Spencer Howard, 3B Alec Bohm of the Phillies, and SP Nate Pearson of the Blue Jays are just three examples. If they don't make the Opening Day roster, they'll be there roughly a week later (service time manipulating doesn't quit) and now have a better chance at contributing. The trick will be making those matches between players that are on the cusp, teams willing to play them, and teams' go-for-it or no mindset. But def that's the first group of players I'd consider -- and those three are just top-of-my-head candidates.
Nick
12:40
In a redraft league, how high would you consider taking a relief pitcher like Josh Hader given the shortened season?
Ray Murphy
12:40
I think there's certainly a case to be made for this approach, and I might take it as far as saying Hader (or maybe Nick Anderson, if we get some confirmation on his role) could be your first pitcher taken, before any SP. Bank a base of Saves, some Wins, a massive strikeout total and hopefully elite ratios. That gives you a foundation if you want to piecemeal your SPs together on the cheap.
Brent Hershey
12:40
Yeah, I think someone like Hader is one of very few RPs whose value doesn't take as large of a hit as other relievers. You know he can go 2 innings if he needs to, Ks are going to still pile up at rates better than just about all pitchers, and he's MIL's no-doubt closer for saves. He's a unique bird in that sense so yes, could be ripe for taking him as your first pitcher after the elite few are off the board. Crazy stuff ... but this is where we are!
Ray Murphy
12:40
Still have a few minutes here... keep submitting if you like...
Chris
12:50
How do you plan for the very real possibility of team's piggy-backing SPs? It's a big option for 3/5ths of the NL East to proceed with entering the season.
Ray Murphy
12:50
Yeah, I'm convinced we're going to see a lot of this, and it's going to be a mess. One way to potentially mitigate is to try and build a monster offense, complete with multi-position eligible guys wherever possible. Point being, you're going to want to dedicate as much of your bench as possible to collecting these SP/piggyback guys. The roles will change, value opps will pop up week over week, and you'll want to have as much flexibility as possible to take advantage/churn your staff. Ideally your offense is "set it and forget it", leaving you to burn FAAB and roster spots on those pitchers.
Brent Hershey
12:50
Just further expunging Wins consideration from my expectations as far as pitchers. Especially before the season starts, it's going to be difficult to know, for instance, which pitchers will start the game (unlikely to get to 5 IP for the win) and which pitchers will be the 2d guy in (more likely to be win-eligible, esp on quality teams). But really ... in 60 games, do we really know who is going to be the 'quality' teams and who isn't?
We've preached drafting skills here at BaseballHQ since ... well, forever. That still holds even in this upside-down situation. Factor in those other nuggets for sure as you can, but drafting skilled pitchers in this case is still your best bet. And on the flip side, wins are likely to be so close in these fantasy races that only a couple will make a huge difference in the standings. But I don't have a whole lot of confidence we're going to be able to know where to find those -- again, outside of just getting the highest-skilled pitchers we can find.
Erik
12:55
Looking at some mocks from last spring to recently, seems like Aaron Nola has fallen from a 30’s to a 60’s pick. Is that just because he’s in the sub-ace tier that you mentioned or is there something else concerning with him?
Brent Hershey
12:55
Yeah, I think it's mainly recency bias (which may turn out to be the correct evaluation at this point). He had a down 2019 due to some 1H command issues; 2018 looked spectacular. Truth is likely in the middle -- so in a sense he was overdrafted in 2019 (reacting to 2018) and now might be underdrafted in 2020. So no, there's no known long-term concerns with him; I think it's just the market trying to figure out where he slots, with a couple of inconsistent years, performance wise, under his belt. Skills overall remain strong, and he's proven durable, which is why I mentioned him in the sub-ace tier above.
Ray Murphy
12:55
I defer to Brent on all things Phillies... so, "what he said". I'll just add that Nola to me is sort of like a Zack Greinke, who's durability/volume (moreso than raw skills) was a big part of his full-season value proposition. That durability edge takes a big hit in a sprint season.
Brent Hershey
1:00
Excellent questions, folks -- and looks like two moderators can do this at once, which we might consider again in the future. Find both of us on Twitter @BrentHQ and @RayHQ, where we also take questions. And of course over at BaseballHQ.com, where this week we're getting ramped up with tons of info on the shortened season, including a peek behind the subscriber wall tomorrow to wet your appetite if you're not a subscriber. Til next week, same time ... stay safe, and PLAY BALL!
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