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Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat - 4/20/2021
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Solitaire
1:32
How much do front office folks attribute hot/cold streaks to a player actually being better/worse at that time and how much to luck?
Kevin Goldstein
1:33
They don't automatically attribute them to either. You research. You look at all the data and all the video and use all the tools to see if this is just good/bad RNG or if something real is going on.
Appa Yip Yip
1:34
Any early thoughts of Vlad's defense at first?
Kevin Goldstein
1:34
I mean . . . he's ok there, certainly better than having him at third. Just enjoy the bat.
Jim
1:34
You proved there were no great Matt Damon movies.  But what about Ben Affleck?
Kevin Goldstein
1:34
Not a single one I can think of.
Sharp
1:35
The Braves are having to go pretty deep in the well to find outfielders right now. Does Drew Waters get a shot soon or is he simply not ready?
Kevin Goldstein
1:35
Not ready. Has to refine that approach.
asnbrv
1:35
Is Statcast/Hawkeye capable to putting out a swing speed stat?
Kevin Goldstein
1:36
No.
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins
1:36
great Damon movies: Dogma, Talented Mr. Ripley, Rounders, Euro Trip
Kevin Goldstein
1:36
Talented Mr. Ripley is the best of that bunch, but great? Nah.
Guest
1:36
do people waste time in a front office? like, every other office has people visiting fangraphs or whatever, what do FO people do when they're slacking off?
Kevin Goldstein
1:37
Even slacking off probably just means watching or talking about baseball. Sometimes you get goofy with a video tool or something and watch the worst defensive plays of a particular fielder, or find the lowest xSLG that went for hits or something.
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins
1:37
School Ties, Syrianna
Kevin Goldstein
1:38
Nope. Great? C'mon. Great is great. Good is not great. Stop trying.
45 blows billygoats
1:38
Thanks for the chat. Gotta get back to work before anyone gets wise!
Kevin Goldstein
1:38
You're fine. Boss will never know.
B
1:39
How valuable is baseball IQ?  Is it the kind of thing where baseball players get so many reps that it doesn't really matter by the time they're in MLB?  When dealing with young kids, it seems more important than athleticism.  When does that change?
Kevin Goldstein
1:40
It's very valuable, and no, not every player is the same. Some have high aptitude and some don't, just like anything else. It's the kind of thing that can make a good player great, but it can't make a bad player good, or even average. It's a sweetener more than a definer.
Guest
1:40
let's say two identical GMs are in exactly identical situations in a parallel universe or something. One has access to fangraphs and public statcast, the other has all MLB/team proprietary data in addition to the public stuff. How many more wins does the latter GM get?
Kevin Goldstein
1:41
You are putting too much pressure on the data, and not enough pressure on the people interpreting the data.
Kretin
1:41
Saving Private Ryan??
Kevin Goldstein
1:41
No. After Jaws, all of Speilberg is crazy over-rated.
Solitaire
1:41
Your answer makes sense, so lemme try asking a different way - after looking at all the data/video for a player's hot/cold streak, how often is the conclusion, "that's just some good/bad luck"?
Kevin Goldstein
1:42
It depends a lot on how long the streak is.
SlightlyOff
1:42
The disrespect for Good Will Hunting that's being implied by this chat is blasphemous. Robin Williams' performance alone elevates that movie to great, before you even get to how everyone else in that film is also doing their best work
Kevin Goldstein
1:42
Yeah, it's really not that good a movie.
Jordan
1:42
What about movies Damon is in but not the main attraction, such as the Ocean's series?
Kevin Goldstein
1:42
Great? Great is a high bar.
Bb
1:42
A 4.50 ERA is bad, but in today's world a quality start is a decent outcome for most pitchers. True or false?
Kevin Goldstein
1:44
True. Though exercise if there was a free agent pitcher who could guarantee you 32 quality starts, so 6 IP, 3 R every time out. 192 IP, 4.50 ERA. No dominant starts, and no disasters. What could he command?
Tommy
1:44
Departed?
Kevin Goldstein
1:44
Mid-range Scorcese.
The Snuggler
1:44
Does Yermin don the tools of ignorance this season?
Kevin Goldstein
1:45
Would surprise me. Wouldn't stun me, but would surprise me. Catchers get banged up a lot, and weird things can happen in individual games. 18.48234% chance. Maybe 18.48235% now that I think about it more.
SlightlyOff
1:45
Alright Mr. Goldstein, we're gonna need an example of a "great movie" by your definition then if winning multiple Academy Awards doesn't qualify a movie for that descriptor.
Kevin Goldstein
1:47
Do you judge music by how many Grammys someone wins? Great movies, off-hand: Wings of Desire, Battle for Algiers, Barton Fink, Apocalypse Now, Blade Runner, Parasite, Repo Man, I could go on and on.
1:48
We're closing in on two hours. If you have rapid fire questions, get 'em in now....
Marc
1:49
how is it that prospects jumped in FV between the draft last year and the release of the top 100 prospects list, given the absence of most scouting and minor league games in that span? Thinking along the lines of Tork being 60 FV in January as opposed to 50 FV at draft time
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