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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/15/20
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Ricky Gervais
1:19
Kiley, nobody gives a sh*t about your opinion.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:21
Listen to the latest EW pod when Meg correctly explains that many men mistake being a dickhead (forgot which word she used) with having a personality. This is especially apparent on the internet.
also BANGING SCHEME
Larry
1:23
How do you evaluate a prospect like Drew Waters? He's flown through the system at a young age with success everywhere. But the K/BB numbers are brutal. Are you able to scout things that make you believe someone can improve those numbers, and have you seen those in him?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:23
Yes. How his at bats go, how the swing looks, what the raw tools are, etc. all tell you more than the raw statline about how that may go
Starling Marte had the exact same concerns at this stage and he made it work. Lots of other guys have not been able to do it.
Ernie
1:24
What is the status of the international draft?  It seemed like some media outlets jumped on the possibility of a 2020 draft back in July, but then have gone completely silent on the matter.  Safe to assume no progress has been made, at all?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:24
MLB wants it ASAP but they have to get agreements with all the different countries and that will take awhile. They also need the MLBPA to sign off, so it's likely for 2022 with the new CBA when all of this can be done
some nonzero chance they can pull it off before that
1:25
MLB also wants there to be a lot of rounds and a low bonus (like $10K max) for undrafted players, so having like 3 countries that aren't subject to the draft, then a Moncada type talent pops up...that's a problem. They need everyone subject to the draft for this cost-reducing scheme to work
Logan
1:26
Is the Liberatore move an indication that the market doesn’t really pay 50 FV prices for arms below AA, or is it more a case of the public undervaluing Arozarena?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:26
maybe both?
Liam
1:26
The detail and imagery in the Marco Luciano write up was some of the best I have ever read
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:26
that's the benefit of seeing the player vs. reading his stats/TM data and asking people
Ben
1:27
I'm incredibly impressed at how much writing you and Eric publish while also going to game, speaking with scouts and coordinating with each other. How do you do it?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:27
(leans in to whisper) drugs
Big Joe Mufferaw
1:28
Do you think we will keep seeing an uptick in velocity? Or is 100-103 mph pretty much the limit of the human body?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:28
Lots of the guys that throw that hard blow out and we know that velo/stress on the arm is a big variable, maybe the biggest, in arm injuries. I don't know what the max is, but seems like we're near it.
Louis
1:29
Is the industry down on Kyle Wright? Does this guy still have legit #2 potential?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:29
Potential? Yes. 50% outcome is probably 4th starter
Asa Lacy
1:29
This site appears to be the most bearish on me. That due to reliever risk?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:30
I mean mid-first round isn't that bad. Yeah there's some stiffness but the plus stuff from the left side is undeniable. Some guys can make unconventional work in a starting role, so there's a chance we're too low. I'll be able to see him plenty this spring.
john
1:31
What is Carter Kieboom's ceiling?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:31
realistically, annually like 2.5 to 3.5 WAR. I could see a peak season between 4 and 5.
GSon
1:32
Tell me two things... Blaze Jordan will be there when the Cleveland Indians make the 23rd selection in the 2020 June First Entry Draft and why it's a great pick !  Thanks in advance..
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:32
Good shot to be there and good shot they take him if he's there
Jesse
1:32
Any plans for a book tour?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:33
Not a ton of concrete plans since they'll likely follow some of the spring travel for games, which is often like a week in advance, depending on weather/injuries but yes we'll be around
Brad
1:33
Nick Solak had a strong MLB debut with the bat. Fielding seems more of an issue. Is he going to have to move to the OF or do you think he could settle in at 2B/3B still?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:34
He's passable at 2B and fits better in the OF, but teams have ways to hide guys at 2B if the stick makes it worth it
Cito's Mustache
1:35
That Clay Davenport link you shared shows Oneil Cruz +6 at Bradenton and +4 at Altoona defensively. Does that line up with other sources for his work at SS?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:36
Maybe not +10, but it's surprisingly good for being 6'8. Once source compared him to an octopus.
Also the Davenport data was really down on Pache compared to past years, which appears to not match the club-side defensive metrics on him, so these aren't perfect but usually point in the right direction.
Jack Donahue
1:37
What does Jared Kelly do better than Mick Abel?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:37
Velo and changeup
Big Joe Mufferaw
1:37
Is Pache a Keirmaier level defender in CF?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:38
Lots of 70 or 80 grades on him still. I'd expect at least a 60, which is like +5 to +7 over a full season I think?
Peter
1:38
About Ivan Herrera's 109+ max ev: do you view that more as interesting anecdotal context, or a real reason to be excited about his ability to barrel a ball? I guess broader question is, is there a right way to interpret minor league ev data or is it all individual dependent? Thanks KM.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:38
Max EV maps best to present raw power
Arkon
1:38
Hey Kiley. Really stoked for Future Value. I am trying to preorder and it doesn't seem like the FV20 promo code is working. Thank you for your hard work!
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