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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/8/20
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
Hello from ATL! Scout and special guest puppy Poe are within arms distance. Went to the UK/UGA hoops game last night because there is no offseason to scouting elite prospects. Eric and I have been pumping out prospect lists and NYM may go up as early as tomorrow. STL and ATL are both largely done.
My iPhone decided to pitch a fit this morning so it just got restored and I probably lost a bunch of files but in the scheme of things I probably needed to delete most of those since I was out of space anyway
12:29
As always, you can find all of our prospect information at the prospects home page from the prospects menu across the top of the site
and many of your questions can be answered at THE BOARD: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-prospect-list/summa...
(which has included some key MLB Draft rankings changes/additions in the last week)
12:30
to your questions:
Mike
12:31
So is it just the Astros and Red Sox that are tied up in the sign stealing? Or are there still more teams involved here that haven’t been reported yet?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:33
So the ESPN/Passan and Rosenthal+Drellich/Athletic pieces yesterday seem to suggest that HOU and BOS are both being investigated and HOU's punishment could be coming soon, while the BOS stuff seems to be a little further off in terms of timetable
12:34
The distinction is that HOU had info coming from illegal camera to hitters feat. trash can while BOS had info coming from gray area replay camera to some person who then gave it to baserunners who then did the old school signaling from second base stuff
The HOU style thing (which is rumored to include signals from pitchers in the bullpen with arms on the OF wall) is still rumored to be done by multiple teams, with HOU the most and most strongly rumored offender
12:35
the BOS style of using the replay room as a grayish area intermediary to make traditional sign stealing a little easier is the thing that it's possible all 30 teams were doing at some frequency, but it also could've just been like 7-15 teams
Frank
12:36
What does an Arenado to Atlanta trade package look like?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:37
Without paying down Arenado's salary in a huge way (which I can't see them doing), it wouldn't make any sense for ATL to not be in on any 150M+ free agents, then trade for a guy with 200M+ left on his deal and seemingly not have had interest in Rendon, who wouldn't have cost prospects.
12:38
Kris Bryant (once the grievance gets worked out) continues to make the most sense. ATL has lots of MLB-ready young pitching that likely won't contribute in a big way in the short-term, they've had a few years for this regime to have opinions on them, Bryant covers the short-term window without a giant cost in terms of money, prospects or long-term contract
(and CHC needs young pitching)
John
12:41
Nate Pearson’s command was a big concern during his 2018 AFL outings and you guys noted it in your 2018/19 FG Jays prospect report on him. While he put up impressive stats in 2019, his command still seems sub par if people were to actually watch his 2019. What is the hype with NP considering his massive command concerns?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
Well the scout the stat line crew has the opposite opinion
12:42
But, generally speaking, having reasonable control but below average command with huge stuff and athleticism are the building blocks to have command and/or not need fine command because your stuff is so good. On top of that, Pearson has skirted the issue of having huge velo and that increasing the chances of arm injuries, which he hasn't had. We're working out some top 100 stuff, but he'll be in there pretty good.
TMNT
12:43
Can we get a state filter on the draft board? Would make it easier to look at prospects from specific areas. Also, can we get something like a date stamp on the player blurbs? Would give a better idea how recent the info is
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:44
Agree on the state filter, but you can type "HS TN" in the search bar and get prep players by state. It's not as good as a state filter, but then typing vanderbilt and tennessee and you've got the whole state other than lower tier colleges/JCs
Stuafoo
12:44
To what extent are teams allowed to negotiate an extension with a player as a prerequisite to a trade?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:44
I believe you can negotiate to get a 48-hour window
Narvain
12:45
Hey Kiley, love your guys' prospect coverage!  Just curious, do you guys have an order for the 2020 team prospect lists or is it just kind of random?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:46
We're going by spring training "pods" or groups/gluts of those stadiums since coverage often is grouped by that and neighboring teams often know each other better from instructs/GCL+AZL/spring training, so things are much more efficient in terms of speaking with scouts
but if you aren't aware of where the ST stadiums are then, yes, it would appear to be random
Lenny
12:46
Was Bitsko reclassifying expected or totally out of left field?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:47
Not shocking given the talent and age relative to 2021 class, but hadn't heard rumors of this one specifically and we've heard rumors weeks or months before at least on like 80-90% of these
Kiley Fan
12:47
What asset would you rather have: Bryant current deal, Arenados deal or Donaldson at 4yr $110m?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:48
Arenado/Donaldson are essentially market value if not a bit higher due to winner's curse and Bryant has lots of surplus value due to the arb system. Not close at all.
Doug
12:48
I heard Andres Gimenez's struggled in AA were related to trying to get to more power with an approach/swing change, and that when he reverted back to a more contact oriented approach late in the summer and AFL, his results rebounded. Can you confirm something of this nature and does Gimenez still profile for you as a solid 50 FV?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:48
Yes 50 FV. Go look at his stats at this age/level vs. Lindor's.
Leo
12:48
Hey, Kiley. You guys have Alexander Vargas fifth in the Yankees system, and I've seen other publications (not naming names) omit him from their top twenty and even top thirty. Do you think certain types of players inspire more grading variance in the industry? Thanks!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:50
Yes, generally at the very low levels (DSL, AZL/GCL) so Vargas fits the bill. Some of the best signal we have for triangulating on stuff like this is when we think a guy should be stuffed and we're told 3-4 teams have tried to trade for him in the last 6 months. Then it's clear it isn't a secret and we're on the right track. This starts happening around the 45 FV level if it's a guy that some teams think are a secret but basically only happens on top 100-150 types in full-season ball
or maybe a little lower if one teams farm system is trash and they don't have anyone that good
Guest
12:51
This HS pitcher I just heard existed yesterday - Nick Bitsko - seems pretty next level. He's got the elite dims and looks the part on the mound. How close to a Cole/Beckett/Fernandez level prospect out of HS was he going to be for 2021 and how much more possible is it out now that he's 2020 eligible?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:51
Lucky for you we have his pitch grades and an updated blurb and have him ranked, so I think that covers all of this? https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?s...
Colby
12:51
Will Riley Greene stick in CF?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:52
Don't think so but it was a flat no before last spring and now it's a longshot maybe
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