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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/8/20
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Ash Ketchup
12:52
Wenceel Perez and Freudis Nova seem like similar prospects to me. With Nova staying at an FV45 in the Astros' write-up, might we expect the same of Wenceel when the Detroit list is finalized?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:52
Different sorts of prospects (Nova more tools/variance, Wenceel more feel) but probably both 45s right now
Ash Ketchup
12:53
Can you rank some pitchers I've heard buzz about this winter? Jonathan Stiever (CHW), Joe Ryan (TBR), Joey Cantillo (SDP).
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:53
All arrow up guys from 2019. We haven't done any of those teams yet but I'd guess we end up with Ryan, Cantillo then Stiever
Stan
12:53
also, what is your favorite nut milk?! ;)
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:54
unsweetened almond on a daily basis my man GTFOH with that sweetened stuff. let's talk almond brands
Jabroni
12:54
How much is exit velocity factored into future value?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:54
round up/down a grade in extreme situations
NY Expat
12:55
BP has said that they would put Gavin Lux just below the Wander Franco/Jo Adell top of their list, and slot him around #4.  Do you feel similarly?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:55
Sure. If he isn't there, he's not far from it
Fangraphs Reader
12:56
Was there something from his pro debut that dropped James Nix from being an 'others of note' on the Astros list?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:56
Has tools, just need to see more performance
Dave C
12:57
Is there an easy way to find your prospect lists from a few years ago? I couldn't figure out how to see the Astros list from 2017 without resorting to google
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:57
I think that's the best way, but luckily the titles of the lists are uniform each year so it shouldn't be hard to find them
High school beatwriter
12:57
How do you identify pitches without tech/stat help?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:58
just gotta go to games and watch it a bunch and it'll become obvious. helps to have someone whispering in your ear to get you started, but for a lot of pitchers there's three pitches in distinct velo areas so the velo alone tells you what the pitch was, no whispering required
Jason
12:58
What do I need to know about Erick Pena?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:58
big upside, exciting tools
Chaise
12:59
Brennen Davis is inspiring hope among Cubs fans. Trending upward after last year but is his 2019 an indication that he has a much higher floor than originally anticipated due to the rawness?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:59
I think that's fair to see. We saw him as high variance and the performance has been in like the top 10% of outcomes on draft day
PNC mightier
1:00
Ben Cherington seemed to favor contact focused prospects in Boston. Would that make him more likely to move 20+% k rate prospects like Travis Swaggerty and Oneil Cruz to push a Pirates rebuild?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:01
I don't think those types of preferences hold for very long. It's often driven by market inefficiencies or a couple key personnel and even those things change pretty quickly if you're working with the same people
Edinson Soto
1:01
Who am I? 23 year old first time intl signee and there’s no public scouting reports
AvatarKiley McDaniel
Trumbo No. 5
1:01
Are you in favor of allowing unrestricted draft pick trading (or at least in the first 10 rounds)? Do you think it could help shorten the time frames on tanking for teams at times if they could stack their picks on a single draft or two.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:02
the strongest of agrees
zurzles
1:02
How excited should we be about Oscar Colas? Some tweets about him defecting generated a lot of hype but they conveniently left out that he hadn't been playing at the top level in Japan
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:03
Even a season of stat in the top minor league in Japan is something, arguably more than part-timing in Cuba's top league. He's definitely a guy and we're trying to get a better idea of where he fits with Pedro Leon and Norge Vera in the unsigned Cuban hierarchy
Johnnt5Alive
1:03
Can you explain the Oscar Colas situation? I thought he was old enough to be exempt from the J2 international signing bonus.  He's 21? Why would he have to wait until teams get their new allotments to sign?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:03
He is not exempt
TImo
1:03
I'm having a tough time differentiating between long term potential of some of the 50 FV pitchers Baz, Graterol, Howard. Since it seems they all have good FB's with good velo, do any of them have secondary offerings that separate them from the rest from what you've seen or heard?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:04
This is the sort of thing THE BOARD was made for. Go to last year's end-of-season rankings and go to the scouting - pitching tab and this should give you what you need: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...
1:05
and here if you want some stats included as well: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board-scouting-and-stats?pos=&...
Soler Express
1:05
There's been some chatter that Austin Martin has elite-level bat speed - given his size, you think he could get to plus game power?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:06
More average to a hair above but I can't rule out plus if he gets the super fun ball and a little more loft, because we're told his 95+ EV rate is crazy high
but it's currently about average raw, great hitability, great approach, flatter plane
Chi
1:07
Do the White Sox have specific issues limiting their ability with J2 signings? FO direction? Scouting? Lack of presence? Other?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:08
Not sure what you're getting at? Luis Robert, Fernando Tatis Jr, Yolmer Sanchez, Micker Adolfo...it's not like they aren't spending money or signing 7 figure types
Byle Koddy
1:09
Can you explain how slider “raw spin” affects movement? Since sliders are obviously low spin efficiency pitches a lot of that raw spin probably gets nullified. A high spin slider like Chaz Roe probably moves super laterally without much depth correct? So would a high spin slider simply be a pitch that has two-plane movement with “late break?”
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:09
Basically, yeah. A low-spin-efficienct pitch (0-10%) will get more break with more raw spin, but obviously not as much a high-spin efficient pitch like a four-seam fastball. The huge breaking sliders you see are more slurves/curves with tilt.
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