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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/8/20
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Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
1:10
Is it an overreaction to think that Cora should be banned from baseball?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:11
I would say so, but I could see people making that case if he was proven to be the mastermind of the HOU and BOS sign stealing operations...which I think is pretty unlikely, but we don't really know much about that at this point.
Brad
1:13
Hi Kiley - which player makes more sense for the Tigers - Torkleson or Austin Martin?  Do either of them have star potential?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:13
The way I explained it to someone who asked me this in person recently is that Torkelson has been the same guy for 2 years and probably will be that same guy leading up to the draft, while Hancock (durability) and Martin (is he a 2B/CF or SS) will move up/down based on how Feb/March go.
1:14
So if Hancock/Martin both move south, then Tork is the best option. If they both move up, Tork is probably the 3rd best option.
1:15
which I understand that seems self evident, but if I were giving variance grades for today to draft day:

Hancock: High
Martin: Medium
Torkelson: Low

...and today they're all pretty close, but we think Martin has a slight edge.
Kris
1:15
When J2 guys are graded as 50, 45, 40, 35+ here on Fangraphs.  Are those J2 FV grades equivalent talent wise to Rule 4 kids  same year at 55, 50, 45 & 40 with grade knock being age, proximity, etc??
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:16
Yes, we scale those to fit for minor leaguers, draft guys and J2 guys. When the summer amateur (draft/J2) grade doesn't match the offseason minor league list grade, it's because we have new information
Byle Koddy
1:16
Why is it that sinker/slider types with higher strikeout rates at lower MiLB levels sometimes see their K% regress? Just a result of the profile of their arsenal and better hitters who put bat on ball more?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:16
In short, yes
PTBNL
1:17
What is one piece of advice you wish you had received before you started working in a front office?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:17
Assume everyone has a selfish political agenda until proven otherwise
which probably goes for most corporate-y jobs as well
Stu
1:18
Good day from the UK!  I was wondering if Luis Robert’s propensity to striking out will prevent him from becoming a star.  Pip Pip Cheerio!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:19
We seem more worried about this than most on the internet, but the teams we've spoken with, particularly office-y people, tend to agree with us. Still plenty of room for disagreement, though.
David
1:19
Thoughts on the Robert extension?  Do you think he will shine in his first year in the majors or do you anticipate some hiccups initially?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:21
He is the type of player (aggressive swinger, big tools) that typically takes a little longer to get settled in the big leagues than the opposite type of player (advanced plate discipline, decent hitting tools). Sometimes the Robert type is Ronald Acuna and the break-in period is obvious but short...but that's really rare. Carlos Gomez was a slower path to success, Starling Marte got there quick; both were generally similar types.
Nate
1:21
Is there any chance Brady House does what you mentioned in his write up and classify to the 2020 class?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:21
Haven't heard any rumors to that end, but he makes as much sense as Bitsko did
1:22
well, maybe a little less since House isn't young for the 2021 class, but both were at ECP (heavily scouted summer event) as underclassmen and showed well. Tre Fletcher was at that event two summers ago and he reclassified just before the spring.
Safety Stegosaurus
1:23
What does your scouting sense say about Anthony Edwards?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:24
(UGA guard that may go #1 overall in the NBA draft) Explosive, exciting, not super polished on the perimeter, but kinda Zion-ish in profile
Will
1:24
WHO'S POE
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:24
that's my girlfriend's pupper
Philip
1:24
Maxey>Edwards
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:25
(Maxey is the top prospect for UK) he was definitely more polished and NBA ready last night. I could tell both guys were up for the matchup and TV and the sold out crowd, then everyone noticed Trae Young was sitting courtside and it went up a notch
Guest
1:26
Thoughts about the new IF OAA stat?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:26
Passes the smell test and the process stuff all seems to check out. Would prefer home to first times rather than sprint speed as the metric to adjust for speed of the runner
sportz
1:27
how soon until every minor league park is equipped with technology that allows us to see data similar to what is disseminated on MLB players
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:27
I'm guessing 5-7 years? It's not clear yet
Arnold
1:27
Could you provide a comp to Jairo Solis in terms of stuff (let's assume he returns to pre-injury form)?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:27
It could be three 60's if it all comes back and he continues progressing
Dee Arby
1:27
I topped out at 72 MPH @ the ballpark speed pitch but I can paint corners.  If I were to start a DSL game, how many runs would be scored against me before I get out of the 1st inning?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:28
I give you a 30% chance of getting out of the first inning. Could luck into some hard hit outs and benefit from being slower than their bat speed.
Butter chicken
1:29
Is it legit (ethical, legal) for teams to approach future draft prospects with hypothetical offers?   (E.g., "If you are there at 8, we want to take you there at 1k below slot.  Would you do that?")
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:29
Against the rules but every team does it, at basically every pick
I am the Walrus
1:29
What's your take on pitching prospect Rutledge?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
Jabroni
1:29
round up/down a grade in extreme situations:                                                                               
                                                                                                             Can you explain what velocities are extreme situations?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:31
You can map that stuff to the 20-80 scale, in a way that I think would be clear from the sliders on the player pages at baseball savant. we think a guy has 45/50 raw power and his in-game EVs are 60s in Low-A. That guy gets moved up. Corbin Carroll was something like that and there have been others, but he's the one that comes to mind.
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