JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/9/19

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Kiley McDaniel

12:21

Hello everyone! After a quick technical issues, we're off and running

12:22

The weather is now solid in ATL and I might go outside and rake some leaves later. Red Sox list is finalized and Eric and I are writing up the capsules today

Harris

12:23

Very surprising to only see Matt Vierling in the honorable mentions on the Phillies list. Could he make his way on by mid season?

Kiley McDaniel

12:23

Most 5th rounders don't make the list the summer after they sign. There's some tools there, so if he performs again, he'll be on there

Larry

12:23

What do you expect from Amed Rosario this year? O/U 2 WAR?

Kiley McDaniel

12:23

Over, still big tools and made some 2nd half progress

Wander Franco

12:24

What needs to happen for me to see the majors in 2019?

Kiley McDaniel

12:24

Would have to be so clearly not challenged at every level that it would be a negative to leave him in the minors. The kid hasn't failed at anything in baseball in his whole life, but that feels like a 95% or 100% outcome.

Jimmy

12:25

I know this is kind of a late question, but I was wondering how much the information the cardinals got via the "hacking" of the astros matters from a evaluation stand point. It seems like on the surface it would be a giant deal. But having listened to a lot of talk from you and eric it seems teams largely know how other teams feel about players. So, that has me wondering if it's not as big of a deal. I can imagine at the very least it's more data/looks on guys which is always a good thing and I can also imagine it might give them a better idea where Houston's board was in that particular draft. Is that all it really effected in your estimation?

Kiley McDaniel

12:26

It would be more double-checking outlier reports your team has, or a guy you don't have a report on, but mostly knowing what they think about their own players and yours would be the majority of the value. And for most players everyone kinda already knows

Kristen

12:26

What are BOS' plans for Chavis who's blocked by Devers? If they're looking for a closer on the cheap, Chavis fits with TEx

Kiley McDaniel

12:26

Chavis is 1B, maybe corner OF going forward and may be more of a platoon guy. I would guess his best years are not with the Red Sox

12:27

They don't really have patience for a young everyday guy whose ceiling is 2ish WAR when they can just sign a vet that's much more likely to do that consistently

Logan

12:27

Questions regarding spin rates on THE BOARD. One column is “breaking,” how is that handled for pitchers with multiple breaking pitches? Also, is the FB spin rate just one type of FB or lumped 2S/4S?

Kiley McDaniel

12:28

best breaking ball spin rate. 4s has higher spin so it's normally that if there's multiple. Some pitchers' fastballs are very hard to separate, so many are lumped together already

Trent

12:28

What's Josh Naylors upside? .280/.360/.500 25-30hr? To optimistic?

Kiley McDaniel

12:28

South of that

Joey

12:28

Kyle Dohy graduates multiple levels with video game numbers and only a 35+. How good does a minor league RP have to be to be considered an asset?

Kiley McDaniel

12:29

He didn't throw many strikes, then higher level hitters laid off the chase pitches and his walks spiked. We're not sure yet that this will work and it's a non elite reliever even if it does.

SEAfahrer

12:29

Hi Kiley,

Kiley McDaniel

12:29

Hello

Matt

12:29

Is Kristian Robinson essentially untouchable given the current context of the Dbacks?

Kiley McDaniel

12:29

In the sense that ARI isn't really packaging young players for now MLB types and he's in their top tier of young players, yes

Elias

12:29

If Adley Rutschman was in an MLB organization right now, where would be land on a top-100 prospect ranking?

Kiley McDaniel

12:30

He's a 55 FV on the draft board: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?type=0&te...

which is 20-45 on the top 100 right now

this question is the reason we do FV for draft prospects

Noah Syndergaard

12:31

"Several league sources have told us that the Mets don’t scout beneath full-season ball, which is the opposite of what most others teams are doing as data comes to be a greater and greater part of the player evaluation process at the upper levels of the minors." Can you explain this a little more? What does scouting data in the upper minors mean for scouting below full-season ball?

Kiley McDaniel

12:32

A bigger part of the evaluation pie is done by TrackMan, which is even more useful the older the players are. There are some progressive clubs that only rarely send scouts to upper minors type games. So with the use of those scouts being less, it would seem obvious to send those bodies to the complex levels, where TrackMan is much less useful, especially if there's no scouting context

New England

12:32

What lower level Red Sox prospects should we be keeping an eye on who could be the next wave of top performers?

Kiley McDaniel

12:33

List probably will be up tomorrow and the 14-25 area has about a half dozen of them. One that's above that tier is SS Antoni Flores. Get in on that while you can

Logan

12:34

Seems like Ian Anderson’s spin rates are super low on the board. Is a 91-94 FB with a spin rate of 2175 RPM really above average? Or a curveball at 1700 RPM? I know the write up acknowledged he wasn’t a spin rate maven, but wow those are low.

Kiley McDaniel

12:34

Yes, they are. His feel for pitching will be key going forward

Purple Mays Haze

12:34

What do you think are the most important traits of a change up? Release point similarity to fastball, arm speed equivalence to fastball, movement of the pitch? I get the sense that it's "resemblance" to the fastball out of the hand (but being ~ 10 mph slower) and movement is less important. Obviously a reductive question, but your thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel

12:35

The three things that matter analytically are movement, 10+ velo differential and spin rate close to FB spin rate

I'd say consistent arm speed/slot with FB is visually important too and obviously command matters, but those are harder to quantify

Purple Mays Haze

12:36

How much pro scouting is performed on one's own team? (To identify tendencies or weaknesses, etc.). Or is that generally the coaching staff's responsibility?

Kiley McDaniel

12:36

Coaches generally aren't good scouts. Clubs typically send their special assistants (best scouts) through their systems multiple times per year

Steve

12:37

How do you pronounce Shervyen Newton's name?

Kiley McDaniel

12:37

I think it's just SHER-ven

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