JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 1/9/19

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Jeremy

12:37

What's your feeling about the 2019 J2 class? Outside of Puason, who's even notable?

Kiley McDaniel

12:38

Mentioned last week that Jasson Dominguez is the other name in the consensus top tier, some solid guys behind that that may be up there for some scouts

Mark

12:38

It’s insane that the Cubs won’t be able to sign a generational player like Bryce Harper because of Jason Heyward. Is there really no way to trade him?

Kiley McDaniel

12:39

This is why, among other reasons, that teams are super hesitant to give out giant deals. There is an end to the money

miley kcdaniel

12:39

how many orgs dont scout short season ball or is it only lolmets

Kiley McDaniel

12:39

As far as we know they were the only team that didn't scout them at all in 2018. There's more than a couple teams now covering the DSL somewhat comprehensively

Kyle

12:40

What FV would you put on Dansby Swanson now?

Kiley McDaniel

12:40

I'd go 50 PV, 55 FV

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free

12:40

At least in OOTP, I’m always converting middling prospects with 80 arms to pitchers. Are teams active in doing this as well and do you know of any names to look out for?

Kiley McDaniel

12:41

Yes, generally when a position player has a plus arm, they'll have him throw a few bullpens before he gets released to make sure that won't work. Almost every system has a mid-90's conversion guy that can't really do anything else

Jeremy

12:41

How do you compare FV by age and position? Is a 55 FV pitcher who is 19 really as valuable as a 55 FV catcher who is 22 and on the brink of the majors?

Kiley McDaniel

12:42

Yes, that's folded in the rankings. Generally speaking, that 19-year-old 55 FV would have some real chance to be a frontline arm (think Mackenzie Gore), while the 22-year-old one would be a less risk, less upside version like Kyle Wright

12:43

and they also went 2 picks apart in the draft

Lucas A

12:43

Hi Kiley. I follow the Yankees and have been absolutely obsessed with Deivi Garcia for the past few months. Should I be? He seems advanced for his age, and I love the spin rates and whiffs.

Kiley McDaniel

12:43

He's really unique and interesting but also not the biggest guy...so he'll be a challenge when we do the NYY list

ProspectHound

12:44

Can you rank the following in order of being the best future fantasy contributors: Ronny Mauricio, Brayan Rocchio, Kristian Robinson, George Valera, Freudis Nova

Kiley McDaniel

12:44

Nova is well behind those, I'd probably take Mauricio first

Winter Sucks

12:44

Why am I wrong when I think about Madigral and worry that he could be the second coming of Dustin Ackley?

Kiley McDaniel

12:44

Yes

Other than position and bonus, they don't have much in common

Sammy Sooser

12:45

How quickly do draftees get ID'd by other orgs for having outlier trackman profiles, where the data might not have existed for them in college or high school? Things like 7'+ release points, 2400+ fastball spin, exit velos, etc, are teams immediately onto them?

Kiley McDaniel

12:46

I know of a couple low profile, low bonus, rural HS picks that posted standout rookie ball trackman numbers and some progressive teams didn't have them turned in, or else they would've offered hundreds of thousands more than the kid ultimately got

Joe

12:47

What's a fair price to pay if your Milwaukee for Mad Bum?

Kiley McDaniel

12:48

The back of the envelope math is $12-15M in surplus value for Bumgarner which would be between 3/Corey Ray and 4/Brice Turang

Guest

12:49

Thoughts on how the Orioles' FO is taking shape? Elias has said on record that there are enough good players in the system to work with, but that feels like lip service. Can he really turn it around any sooner than 4-5 years from now?

Kiley McDaniel

12:50

Given the divisions and how sharp the orgs are, how good the players are and how much money there is...the bar to compete is 85+ wins, with a lot of games against .500+ teams...I think it's at least 3 years away and probably more like 4-5, yes

12:50

When was the last update to THE BOARD made? And I'm assuming that update was more to placement within the top 100 as opposed to FV and anything else?

Kiley McDaniel

12:51

Basically re-did the top 130 at the end of the year, didn't really touch much below that

Steve O

12:51

How obvious is a Wander Franco/Vlad Jr type as an IFA? It seems not that obvious if they're getting similar bonuses to other top prospects.

Kiley McDaniel

12:52

I mean those guys are obvious well in advance, but these days those types of players are ID'd at 13, often locked up at 14. So once you're outside of the generational talents, you can see how there would be some fool's gold involved

I told a story on the podcast of when I saw Franco at 14 years old and it was super obvious then

Greg

12:53

What's the last 80 grade you've had for a prospect before their debut? Jose Fernandez?

Kiley McDaniel

12:54

It's basically impossible to put an 80 on a guy before he plays a big league game. You're saying that you expect, as a median outcome, for a guy to be a 6-7 win player at least once or twice. There's always risk that doesn't happen, So we tend to top out at 70, which there isn't even one of those every year, and that's a 5-win season once or twice...which everyone now and then there are kinda fluky seasons that get up there.

12:56

But if we would put an 80 FV on a guy the day before he loses eligibility, after like 40 games? Maybe. Acuna/Soto are probably 70 FV now with a chance to move up to 80 during this season if they keep doing it. Judge basically put up an 80 season as a rookie, then a 70 the next year. People mention Josh Beckett, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Alex Rodriguez as the slam dunk guys of the past; they would all be around there

Hypothetical pitching prospect

12:56

If I had 80 command could I succeed in the major leagues if my max fastball velocity is 70 mph? Let's say that I have a standard curveball/slider/changeup arsenal ranging from 40-60 mph. (I don't throw a knuckler.. sorry).

Kiley McDaniel

12:56

LOL NO

Stevil

12:57

Are there any other prospects who throw a screwball as well as Honeywell?

Kiley McDaniel

12:57

I don't know of another screwball at all, off the top of my head, but I'm sure there have to be a few others out there

Purple Mays Haze

12:58

A batter fouls one right back to the screen: "He was right on that pitch. The pitcher got away with one." A batter pops one up to the catcher: "He's giving away outs. IFFB's are like K's." But Batter A missed barreling the ball by MORE than Batter B. What gives??

Kiley McDaniel

12:58

A whiff is better than a weak groundball when there's a runner on first. Life is unfair

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