JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 11/14/18

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Aaron

12:37

Are there any worries about Daniel Espino's size in conjunction with throwing 96-100? How concerned should a team be?

Kiley McDaniel

12:38

I'm dubious when an evaluation on a HS P is tied to now-arm speed and the rest (size, delivery, command, third pitch, etc.) is all just okay. It obviously fits where the game is going, but HS P are a different animal than upper level minor leaguers. The track record of upper 90's prep arms is reeeeaaalllly bad

Hey offseason its me ya boy

12:39

Odds that the Yankees make a deal for Paxton?

Kiley McDaniel

12:40

They seem like one of the favorites, if not the favorites, judging from what they need, the types of players they like, etc.

Flex Pie

12:40

Those prospect $ values - confused as to what time period those are for. Is that saying Vlad jr is worth $112 mil just in general, or $112 mil over the next 6 years? Or something else?

Kiley McDaniel

12:40

If he was a free agent and teams could bid for his 6+ controlled years and everyone acted ratonally

12:41

that's how much the winning bid would be

Said another way

the reason people in baseball say top draft prospects' bonuses are too low

12:42

Casey Mize got $7.5M in June, is worth $41 million

the reverse of a car losing 20% of its value when you drive it off the lot

that gap gets a lot smaller or negative at lower picks/bonuses very fast

Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

12:44

In response to FG's recent pieces on putting dollar signs on prospects, how does that work for Brendan McKay?

Kiley McDaniel

12:44

The number is $54 million https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

if you mean the pitcher/hitter split, we just take where he's ranked and both of those are folded into where he's ranked

TKDC

12:45

What FV would you give Juan Soto right now?

Kiley McDaniel

12:45

Eric and I will have to discuss it, but you could argue him and Acuna are something like 70/80 in terms of present/future value

Ryan

12:45

You guys have Eloy Jimenez currently projected for RF. How do you make a determination between the corners?

Kiley McDaniel

12:45

Basically just arm strength

Jon

12:45

If he can't stick in CF, do you think Parker Meadows has the arm for RF?

Kiley McDaniel

12:46

He's a 70 runner with a 60 arm, that will work anywhere

Nick

12:46

Any early thoughts on MLB's new Prospect Development Pipeline League?

Kiley McDaniel

12:47

Seems like a positive development for baseball, not a negative for showcase companies right now, but it probably will lead to stuff that will be a negative for them soon

Kiley McDaniel's #1 Faniel

12:48

What's the rhyme and reason that determines the order that the prospect lists come out in? Highlight of the offseason TBH

Kiley McDaniel

12:48

Thanks! We stacked the teams that didn't have top guys at the AFL first

DeGrom’s W/L record

12:49

I didn’t understand the reason Elehuris Montero was so low on your STL prospect list. I personally think he has more FV than Gorman, but what do I know. Could you expand?

Kiley McDaniel

12:49

Montero is probably a R/R first baseman that's not super athletic. How many of those guys are in demand right now? Gorman has a better chance to play other positions, more track record of hitting/hitting with power

Oyster Burns

12:51

do honeywells injury concerns have anything to do with his screwball?

Kiley McDaniel

12:51

Lots of hard throwing guys blow out that don't have a screwball, so no evidence to suggest that's a reason

andy

12:51

You highlighted potential Realmuto trade packages. History tells us the Rockies won't trade for him (or anyone that requires top 5 prospects.... That hasn't happened since Bret Saberhagen, I believe).
BUT, if you WERE to build a trade for Realmuto, what else would need to be sent out beyond Rodgers?

Kiley McDaniel

12:52

The math for their prospects beyond Rodgers didn't add up to compete with the other teams ahead of them. So you'd need a team that really likes Pint and/or Hampson, maybe throw in a graduated prospect like Ryan McMahon, etc. You could get there, it just may take an MLB asset or two, but Rodgers is a strong starting point

Pie

12:53

It seems like the losses in the Houston FO have mostly been tied to people getting better jobs. Should that be the read, or is it just a mass exodus

Kiley McDaniel

12:53

Lets just say there's a lot going on there

Hank

12:53

Can you give us a rundown on Mike Fast? What makes him such a big addition for Atlanta?

Kiley McDaniel

12:54

One of the top analysts in the game. I think fans may underrate how impactful that is, potentially having a small to medium edge you didn't have before in dozens of decisions

SZBH

12:54

Thanks for great posts by Craig, Eric and you. Built a foundation we can and should always refer to.
How do you put value on player who is in between prospect and proven? Like player who had crazy hot 150PA or uninspiring 300PA?

Kiley McDaniel

12:54

Oh, we're working on that, too

JKD

12:54

Carter Kieboom: an asset to hold or a chip to cash in?

Kiley McDaniel

12:55

Hold

RIck Hahn

12:56

Does Collins, Rutherford, Dunning and lottery pick get me JTR and a young pitcher?