JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 11/14/18

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Kiley McDaniel

12:56

Gets you in the conversation, not sure that would be the winning bid

Fangraphs reader

12:56

How do you do sourcing for the rookie leagues? Do you see a guy performing and ask about him? Do you have people who see the DSL and ask what prospects you should know about? Both?

Kiley McDaniel

12:57

Every level, including the DSL, gets scouted now. Not easy to find always, but they exist

AFL

12:57

Do you incorporate AFL performance in your prospect rankings?

Kiley McDaniel

12:57

Yes. Everything we can include, we do

12:58

Including some stuff, like makeup, that we can't always tell you guys tons of details about

NotGraphs Revivalist

12:58

One thing mentioned in the prospect valuation article was how proximity to big leagues affects FV. Could Drew Waters or William Contreras be one of those guys with 55+ potential, but they’re too far off to call it yet?

Kiley McDaniel

12:58

Both could get there when in AA or AAA

Nick

12:58

In Craig's update on prospect valuation there was table estimating how many players are in each FV tier (2 70s, 4 65s, etc). Does this mean there are on average 2 players in all of the minors every year that will become 70s, or just that there are 2 that you would project to be 70s?

Kiley McDaniel

12:59

At any given time, that's how many are on our list

Just as a way to know the distribution and match it to the old BA lists, that the top 2 are generally the 70's, etc. since they didn't use an FV system then

NotGraphs Revivalist

1:00

Kiley, how much of teheran’s $11M would ATL have to eat in order to give him to another team for free (or basically free)? $4M?

Kiley McDaniel

1:00

Maybe a little less, but something like that

Jake Jortles

1:01

In your Realmuto piece, you asserted that Realmuto would cost $40M per season if he were on the open market and looking for a 2 year deal, based on his production. However, no one actually pays the cost in dollars for wins. E.g. no one would actually give Bryce Harper $54M per season if they believed he was a 6 win player. So where exactly is this $/WAR estimate coming from, if none of the free agents, even the elite ones, are inking deals at those prices? It seems like the actual cost in dollars is somewhere around $5M to $6M per win, even by your own free agent contract estimates. Can you please clarify this? Thank you!

Kiley McDaniel

1:04

If Harper said he would only sign a 2-year deal, he would get $40M per year. You discount more on $/WAR as you tack on years and the player gets older. Realmuto is in his peak years, we're only talking about 2 years and he's far and away the best catcher in the game with multiple contenders with money to spend that need catchers AND Grandal has a QO attached. There's way more in the $40M AAV that just some lazy linear dollar per WAR thing, that's what the market would bear. The lower $/WAR you find are with lesser/older players on longer term deals. Top of the market on a short deal gets paid retail rates. May not be provable, since it never happens, but we can ask teams privately and they'll tell us.

1:05

I'll also add that a couple commenters in the JTR article were apopletic about the $/WAR assumptions and totally ignored 1) the market would pay that rate for JTR on a 2 year deal, so $/WAR isn't a factor 2) the prospects were valued using that figure, so you can argue it should be lower, but then both MLB and MILB players would go down uniform amounts. Drives me nuts when the anti $/WAR crowd just yells and has no logic or alternative method, they just want to yell. It's a good baseline for stuff like this because it's the only one there is, then you make adjustments off of it.

TKDC

1:07

Doesn't the prospect valuation take into account the cost of the player? Vladdy is going to get paid tens of millions of dollars if he is as good as advertised, so wouldn't the free agent bidding for his service be $112 million plus the ~$40 million or so he'd get paid through the end of arbitration?

Kiley McDaniel

1:07

The arb money is factored in to Craig's calculations. It's essentially a fixed percentage of his WAR, as far as we're concerned. That's all you can really do this far in advance

Steve

1:08

You think Schroeder had a head whack? Seemed fine to me. On the topic of head whacks, what’s the outlook for Riley Pint? Any info about current stuff, health and delivery changes (hopefully reduced head whack, his had gotten extra bobbyheaded)?

Kiley McDaniel

1:08

He had one in HS, it was much better in pro ball. Pint hasn't really improved in pro ball yet, but the sky is still the limit

Greg

1:08

FORCE A TEAM TO MAKE A TRADE. I'M BORED.

Adam

1:08

Can you explain what’s going on in Germany with Angela Merkel? I’m not familiar with German politics so I’m a bit lost on that one.

Mets Fan

1:09

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

Satya

1:09

Where in Atlanta did you move to? (not a stalker...probably)

Kiley McDaniel

1:09

Near Emory/CDC

LudeBurger

1:10

Who has bad makeup?!?!? Those guys from cespedes BBQ I bet!

Tommy

1:10

You had Nico Hoerner as a 45 FV. Sneak peak, is that going to change at all in the updated rankings?

Kiley McDaniel

1:10

I don't think so

Fritz Ferter

1:11

Hey Kiley, is Verdugo, Ruiz, and May too much for Paxton or close to right?

Kiley McDaniel

1:12

Verdugo+May is a good starting point, maybe some lower levels toss-ins from there

Sammy Sooser

1:12

Trevor Bauer says he'll only sign one year deals, he'll be an incredible test case for $/WAR.

Kiley McDaniel

1:12

Well, once out of arbitration, sure.

Fritz Ferter

1:13

Do you have any “in the industry” takes about the wholesale mess in Seattle (this is a franchise competence question rather than a specific prompt about accusations of racism or sexism or sexual

Kiley McDaniel

1:13

there's a lot going on there, too

DBRuns

1:13

As an Indians fan, how concerned should I be that the Tribe didn't offer Brantley a QO? 1/$17.9 million seems like a good deal for a guy who produced 3.5 bWAR and 3.6 fWAR last year and is entering his age 31 season. Do they not even have the resources to offer a below market deal?

Kiley McDaniel

1:13

From what I read/understand, they couldn't risk that he takes it and eats up all their payroll space. It was very unlikely, but that's what happens when you're already stretching payroll

Barves

1:14

Is Julio Teheran, Mike Soroka, Luiz Gohara, Ian Anderson, Cristian Pache an overpay for DeGrom?

Kiley McDaniel

1:14

Yes

Randplaty

1:14

Do you agree with Craig Edwards $ value on prospects? Is Vlad Jr really worth two Tatis Jrs?

Kiley McDaniel

1:15

Craig wrote it in close consultation with Eric and I (and Appelman and Dolinar). The tippy top of the list is debatable b/c there just isn't a huge sample size to base the projection off of, but it isn't way off

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