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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 12/11/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:15
It's not on the player pages, but is on the leaderboards: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league/?pos=all&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8...
Stuafoo
3:15
Why aren’t more contracts front loaded? It seems like the financials could be sufficiently constructed to get around the inflation argument, while still paying players more for their most valuable years.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:15
moral hazard to kick the salary can down the road and also get a little benefit in terms of NPV
J
3:15
Is the Will Wilson/Zach Cozart trade about right value wise.  Cozart is obviously a sunk cost/1 year lottery ticket, so it looks like the Giants bought the prospect Will Wilson for ~$12 million.  Is that a reasonable price?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
Touki was $10M for a soft 50 four years ago
3:17
so $12M for a 45 FV is about right when you adjust for inflation of both money, baseball money and prospects in general
Craig's research has a 45 FV hitters at $6M: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outsid...
3:18
and the 15th overall pick (before bonus) being worth $18.4M: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/
3:19
so 6 and 15 are the values using two different approaches and there's some limit on the supply given you can't just buy every prospect like you can in soccer, so I'd lean more to 15 than 6
which lands on almost exactly 12
Corbin Martin
3:19
You said I'm a 50 if I prove to be healthy post-TJ. But where would I rank on the DBacks list in that scenario?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:19
We're already ranked you on a fresh D'Backs list just weeks ago! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-arizona-diamondbacks/
Gerrald
3:20
Does it feel like Donaldson or bust for the Braves?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:20
nah they've got options still. Ozuna makes a lot of sense.
Bryant Packard
3:20
Where will I play defense?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:21
I'll say LF
Appa Yip Yip
3:21
With the way pitching is flying off the shelves, can Ryu top 5/100?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:21
That's steep for that injury history
Mike
3:21
Lot of annoyed Detroit fans with Avila and ownership right now. Is there any reason to have faith that this might work? Seems like ownership is just looking to make money, and Avila's not creative enough to survive like that.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:21
I mean there are a lot of teams, maybe most teams, where the owner's goal is to not lose money and win however many games you can while not doing that, then pocket the appreciation of team value over time while owning a cool asset
3:22
I'd assume your team's owner approached their team this way until proven otherwise
Clearly winning is almost no team's #1 goal, or else there'd be a bunch of team in the luxury tax year after year
ScoutTheDog
3:22
Where am I?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:23
In ATL with the dog watcher and her dog Rocky. There's a pupdate on my instagram (kileymcdaniel)
Guest
3:23
Weird chat time, brah
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:23
explained it on twitter, but I forgot to change my phone alarm to remind me of the chat and now I'm 3 hours behind, so here we are
Joe
3:24
Is The BOARD accurate as of 12/11 or does it update as you release prospect lists?  How many 55FV or greater prospects are in baseball as of today according to you (for example?)
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:24
The 2020 board is accurate, just the teams we've done so far. We're tying together the top 100 this week and next, to get an idea of all the other movers so we can wrap our arms around the league-wide picture
SDP Fan
3:24
This time next year - do the Padres still own Luis Patino? And what’s a good MLB comp on him?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:25
I think him and Gore are the two minor leaguers they don't want to trade
Turbo
3:25
There are a couple guys in my fantasy league that I don't enjoy negotiating with, to the point that I just won't try anymore. (The feeling may be mutual.) Are there major-league GMs who don't get along and probably won't end up trading with each other as a result? Not looking for names.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:26
Yes. Differs depending on whom you ask, but there's a few universal ones. One was fired recently.
Rockies Balboa
3:26
Arenado's not really getting traded, is he?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:26
I can't see how or why
Alex Wells
3:26
Longenhagen said he wanted to see me in a bat-friendly environment in his AFL preview. Is a 15/2 K/BB ratio and just 1 run allowed in 15.2 IP what you were looking for? Do I FINALLY get a spot on the BOARD?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:27
that's a good hype video voiceover for the Orioles list
Lamar Jackson
3:27
Is Kevin Padlo good? He was pretty well-regarded for a while, and had a monster season, but it's hard to find any scouting reports after spring 2017.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:27
He was good, then bad and now is good again. Was actually chatting with someone about him in the lobby last night.
Jim
3:28
And now to the most important question: does Steven Kwan finally make the Indians list or at least get a one liner in the others section?
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