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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 12/19/18
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:13
Hello from ATL. Nationals list coming soon, I would guess tomorrow with the Mets and Phillies both being worked on right now, but may be held until post Christmas. Sounds like AL East will come next.
Also the winter meetings pushed back the draft list update but that's also basically done and coming soon and I think we're recording a podcast in the next 24-48 hours
Now to your questions
Lilith
12:14
Who from the Reds system are you most excited to see break out next year who might not be a well known prospect (yet)?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:16
There's the list. Some higher variance guys to keep an eye on would be the top righties from the last draft class (Josiah Gray moreso than Lyon Richardson), SS Jose Garcia, RF Danny Lantigua, RHP James Marinan, 2B Cash Case
Mike Siani and Jeter Downs would be guys to watch possibly moving onto a top 100 during the year
Sam
12:17
Is there a reasonable explanation for why scouts are so under-paid? And how much variance is there amongst teams in willingness to pay a bit more for better scouts than going as cheap as possible
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:17
There's no competition for them since there isn't a parallel baseball industry that needs scouts. Some scouts become college coaches, but a tiny percentage and the ones that are qualified often make that move.
12:19
There's lots of areas where teams underpay b/c they have pricing control, like most front office job under AGM level, interns, minor league coaches, any entry level job, minors leaguers by a lot...but then we saw SEC/ACC are using TV money to pay elite coaches and that's now directly driving up the price for first time MLB coaches since there's now a pipeline between the two and some direct substitution. And we're seeing Driveline being used to consult on PD (but not hiring away top Driveline employees to be a team employees) since there's demand for that kind of work, but a small workforce that matches the description
12:20
Competition is good for everyone, but MLB orgs have most of their employees by the short hairs and they know it
Dan
12:20
Like the Mets offseason so far?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:22
In general I do. I wasn't expecting a ton from BVW since he seemed behind the 8-ball with lack of experience and all the things that come with the Mets. But there's a clear vision of competing in the short term while not completely ignoring the long term, beefing up analytics and giving them a voice (a very important distinction behind just making hires). I have some gripes, but having a clear direction is a nice change if I'm a Mets fan.
NotGraphs Revivalist
12:22
So, about that Atlanta FanGraphs Meetup...
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:22
LOL ok so poll time
12:23
Best time for an ATL meetup
Jan/Feb pre spring training (5.5% | 9 votes)
 
March while everyone is optimistic (11% | 18 votes)
 
April/May early season (5.5% | 9 votes)
 
I'm not in ATL/will not attend any of these (77.9% | 127 votes)
 
Total Votes: 163
Ballsandgutters
12:23
struggling to see how “catching is hard to find” in minors and majors, but Erik Kratz’s are always available and catchers don’t seem to ever get big money (Ramos).   Risk of injury outweigh lack of numbers?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
That's kinda true of everyone position, though. Bo Hart, Shane Spencer, Kelby Tomlinson, Bryan LaHair, etc. there's always org guys that pop up and have a good half season or so. Seemed like reasonable money for me on Ramos. Given his ACL/size/age and not having a DH and having Alonso/Dom Smith/Cano at 1B makes me a little nervous, but it's not a 5-year deal.
Mike
12:25
Great work on the Marlins top 30. What odds do you actually put at Monte Harrison figuring something out and considerably improving his hit tool enough to be a 40-45 there.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:27
We talked about him a lot internally. I don't think the hit tool is the thing to pay attention to here. If he hits .220 or .250 isn't a huge difference. He's not a huge bat control guy and will never be elite there. The key is if his pitch selection is good enough that he finds the right pitches to drive, doesn't chase and draws walks. The position/defense/arm/power are all elite, but if he chases a ton, the whole thing breaks down and he won't get pitches to hit. If he has a good approach, guys will nibble due to the power and he'll get pitch-around walks, then punishes mistakes. That could still be a 3 win guy. I'd say his range is 40/reserve to 60/3-to-4 win guy.
Darren
12:28
What are your thoughts on Kameron Misner? Is he not on your draft board because of health?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
He'll be on the update in the late 2nd range. Big tools, hasn't been seen a ton, some questions on the hit tool. He and Hunter Bishop at Arizona State are similar guys, like Harrison from the last question, with really good tools and will soar up the board if the hit/pitch selection or some combination comes together
I guess I should've figured most people reading this don't live in ATL haha
Alex
12:29
What shelf life do you have for Vlad Jr. at 3B?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
I'd guess a few years but it's really up to him. If size/position is his top concern, then longer. If Vlad Jr just wants to bang then it might be late-20's/early-30's Miguel Cabrera pretty quickly
NotGraphs Revivalist
12:30
Now that the Astros have Brantley, do you see them trading Kyle Tucker? If so, is Realmuto the only plausible target, or could a team have him for pitching?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:31
That's more possible now. Adding Nelson Cruz makes it much more possible. Still unclear how they're going to approach their lineup construction and it seems like the J.T. Realmuto market has been in the "playing chicken" phase for awhile now.
chet
12:31
is bryse wilson a legit option for ATL? seems like he's better than touki
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:32
Touki has much more stuff, Wilson has much more command but may not have the stuff to go three times thru the order, while Touki may not have the current command for it. They are both currently very qualified to be 2-4 inning relievers that could grow into more.
12:33
and it would be hard to find pitchers of that caliber for reasonable prices in free agency. with those two and Max Fried and a few others, you're basically guaranteed to have at least one really valuable arm all year
Matthew Damon
12:33
What are your opinions on the Matt Harvey signing? $11 million seem a bit rich?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
For a guy with a TJ and long-time makeup problems (fingers crossed for the future) who had a nice bounceback second half after being terrible/hurt, yeah.
Darren
12:35
Did Bobby Witt's Pan Am performance do anything to answer questions about his hit tool?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
Not the greatest pitching, but it's better than not hitting or not playing, so yeah it helped
chet
12:35
is Corbin Burnes an obvious rotation choice for the brewers in April, or was he too valuable in the pen?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
I think you have to give him a chance to see if he can be that 180+ IP guy
Steve in Chicago
12:35
How are PTBNL decided on? Are there groups of players based on tiers of performance by the acquired player or is there a single player that's selected by the value that the acquired player brings? Is all of this relatively established at the time of the trade or is it all entirely backwards looking once a certain period of time has past? If the trade is entirely retrospective how long do teams have to name the player? If it is all relatively determined at the time of the acquisition, what happens if the potential PTBNL are traded in subsequent moves? Thanks!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:37
Yes, it's decided as part of trade negotiations who the group of players are and when the deadline to decide is. Pretty sure 6 months is still the max amount of time you can take, which is why you don't see PTBNL a ton in the early offseason, since it's normally used so you can go scout the players more.
Mike
12:37
Kiley in a down year I think the Jays should be as unconventional as possible.  How about trying Luciano as an opener?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:37
lets get weird, toronto. embrace your inner cistulli
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