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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 12/19/18
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
teenage opener sounds like a 70s rock song
Anthony
12:38
Obviously based on your estimates you thought Brantley would do better and McCutchen worse, but what are your personal opinions on each player?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:39
I have to assume it's all about the medical records/projections of health. Obviously Brantley has had more issues looking backward as well and he's only getting older, but 2 years seems overly cautious given that he played 143 games last year with the same medical
McCutchen is good too, he's just older and more clearly declining and a little less with the bat
12:40
You're paying for 3 wins from Brantley over a 2-year period and his injury history was the same for 2018 and he posted 3.5 wins. Like I said, seems overly cautious.
Matt
12:40
General Muir...great lunch place or greatest lunch place?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
Just tried it for the first time this week and for dinner. Very solid! had the pastrami poutine, cheeseburger, deviled eggs and lentils w/cauliflower. Okay there was another person there
I'm told it's great for brunch
Joe
12:41
Did Connor Joe make a swing adjustment or change his approach before last season?

More FB%, less GB%.  ISO in the .200s.  Is this an actual change or just noise?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:42
Eric (feat. Kiley) dove into that topic here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-rule-5-draft-scouting-reports/
Joe
12:43
Ryan Noda currently sits with a 35+ FV on his player page--is that still accurate or will he get a bump up when the Blue Jays review comes in?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:43
Older 1B so probably that or 40 FV
12:44
Also BB rates from lower minors ofter crater in the upper minors as pitchers are better strike throwers and you aren't getting as many "this guy literally can't throw three strikes before four balls" walks
12:46
but he seems to be more selective than average so I think he'll stay in the double digits in walk rate
Mac
12:46
Would it make sense for a rebuilding team who has extra cash to give a heavily front-loaded 2-year deal to a FA? That way in year 2, he has a below-market contract and can be traded for prospect profit.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:47
Yes, I can't think of an example but I know this happens some, like the 2-year TJ recovery deals would be one version of this
Ronnie
12:47
You always have struck me as a libertarian and Eric seems like a socialist. Does that strain your relationship?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:47
lol i'm just publishing this so the FG staff can read it and respond
MKay
12:47
Thought experiment: Is there any scenario where you prefer to have Buehler long term instead of Robles?  If you're pushing all the chips in, in 2019?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:48
I had Buehler 4 spots ahead of Robles on the trade value list and this was before Buehler shoved in the playoffs: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-1-to-10/
12:49
so they're still very close in value. If Buehler misses a few starts in April/May and Robles goes off, it might flip
David
12:49
I know straight prospect challenge trades are rare, but (with all limited respect due to Tyler Flowers), wouldn't Mejia to ATL straight up for Riley help both clubs reallocate talent to positions of need better.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:49
There's a real chance Mejia isn't a catcher and then it's not accomplishing much
Contending team doesn't have the patience for a guy to figure out how to catch on the fly. SD does, for now.
Anthony
12:50
Brandon Lowe for Jose Martinez make mutual sense? Does Lowe have the instincts to be a 2B/3B/COF type?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:50
I think the Bauers/Yandy deal showed that the Rays prefer positional flexilibity if the bats are comparable and Lowe looks like a 100-120 wRC+ type that can play corners and 2B. I would prefer him and I think TB does, too.
Matt
12:51
Why don’t teams like the Tigers spend $15mm on international FA or the draft and pay the penalties vs. signing guys like Ross and Moore with hopes to flip them for a 40 FV come July?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:52
Hard cap on int'l spending now so can't do that. Teams did it a lot when it was a soft cap and that's why the rule changed. In the draft you lose a first round pick (I think multiple picks?) if you go way over, so you need to not be giving up a top-10 picks next year and also have a rare opportunity of many picks to scoop up 1st round talents later. Really have to thread the needle to pull it off and have it make sense.
pelkey
12:52
Why are player opt outs considered bad for teams? If thetheres one after every season, then the contract is basically a 1-year deal, and everyone says there is no such thing as a bad 1-year deal. If they aren't exercised, then they are the same as a contract without opt outs.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:53
Because you're giving away the upside (player is good, he's gone) and taking the downside (player is bad, you're stuck with him). 1 year deal has little upside and downside, longterm deal has bigger upside and downside. Opt out in a long term deal is worst of those three.
Jerry Dipoto
12:53
What do you think are the odds of JP Crawford producing a 5 win season during his time with the Mariners?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:54
Maybe 30% chance of 3.0 or more once in his 6 controlled years. Let's say 5-10% chance of 5.0 or more?
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free
12:54
When the Phillies list comes out, am I going to be disappointed considering the high draft picks we’ve had the last few years?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:55
Cornelius Randolph, Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley won't be ranked much differently than they are now. There's one notable guy that will be moving up since we got multiple other reports to corroborate one that we got late in the season that we weren't sure about.
Anthony
12:55
You and Eric mention catcher conversions a lot. Beyond an above-average arm, what traits do teams look for when pulling a Carson Kelly or Josh Morgan? Bilinguality? Lateral agility?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:56
Those help. Quick feet and good makeup/mental game are the main ones. We see 45 arm catchers in the big leagues now so that's important but not essential.
Just A Dude
12:57
Jeff Francouer said the Braves are definitely in on Harper because he loves Atlanta. Is Frenchy a secret insider or has he smoked too many candy canes?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:58
I don't think they're out on anyone, just being cautious to not overpay. If Harper never gets a 10+ year, 330M+ deal, I dont think anyone knows what he's looking for. Could be 1-year deal with no QO for a contender or 4-5 year deal with a 1-year opt out, back to WSH for whatever they have left, etc. so you don't know that ATL isn't the preferred destination if the retail offer isn't there.
Will
12:58
What do you look for in long levered players (like Taylor Jones and DJ Peters, for instance) to project on their ability to make consistent quality contact?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:58
Bat speed, bat control, overall athleticism
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