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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 12/4/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
11:59
Hello from ATL! Scout and I are sitting on the bed while the kitchen floor gets sanded and refinished, which she is somehow sleeping through.
12:00
We're in list season, so hit the new PROSPECTS dropdown at the top of the page to see the latest. Red Sox should be out tomorrow, Twins early next week while we're all in San Diego for the Winter Meetings. We'll be doing the WSH/HOU/STL/MIA spring training pod next.
I wrote up the Nestor Cortes/SEA swap right before last week's chat as well: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mariners-add-cortes-for-international-bonu...
12:03
and I think you guys will find some interesting sleepers and an overarching development in the BOS list tomorrow
to your questions:
Jeremy
12:03
I recently learned about Mahki Backstrom. What's your take on him? Seems promising.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:03
Big power, 1B only, young for the class, contact/getting to power in games will be the issue
Joe
12:04
How would you order these far,far away Outfielders, Luis Matos,Alexfri Planez and Luis Rodriguez?  Thank you Kiley
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:04
I think we'd go Matos, Rodriguez, Planez
JSDee
12:05
Can we start questioning the Padres 2016 J2 class yet?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:05
So they spent a ton of money and so far have:
12:07
Luis Patino, 55 FV
Tucupita Marcano, 45+ FV
Jeisson Rosario, 45+ FV
Adrian Morejon, 45+ FV
Tirso Ornelas, 45+ FV
Michel Baez, 45 FV
Gabriel Arias, 40+ FV
like, what else are you looking for?
12:08
three of the sub-50 FV guys were 50's at one point and they all have a chance to be one day
Elf on break
12:08
Matt Allan or Blake Walston, better lotto ticket arm?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:09
Basically a toss up at this point. Both will be 50 FV with a strong spring and are a half-notch below that now
Walston is more projection, athlete, feel style LHP and Allan is now-stuff RHP, so very different flavors
12:10
Hamels/Walston and Verlander/Allan would be best-case scenarios of what they could be, to illustrate the differences
BIg Cheese
12:10
Who are some of the biggest risers from the 2019 updated list to the new 2020 lists? What kind of things do you look for when you move guys up more than one level?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:12
It's usually guys where something real changed from mid-summer to end of season and it happened a bit below the radar.

Brenton Doyle for COL made a big jump b/c he was a D2 tools guy with zero track record that crushed short-season in his pro debut, which is more meaningful than SEC or Cape experience and no one had seen him play above the D2 level. So that's a huge change from draft time to the end of the season.

Some J2 kids that haven't really been seen since they got locked up 18 months before signing have gotten more physical or were not well known to us when the signed. Adael Amador with COL is one. There's two on the BOS list tomorrow.

Other examples would be guys that performed and it looks even more impressive when we get the trackman data at the end of the year to see how real it was.
Draftnik
12:13
When do you and Eric expect to write something on the 2020 draft?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:13
Now that the book is out of our hands and the prospects lists are rolling, maybe as soon as next week? The 2021 and 2022 lists have been updated behind the scenes but not pushed public. The 2020 list is basically done and public right now.
Brad
12:14
What did you think of Austin Beck prior to the 2017 draft and what do you think about him now? Is there still hope for him?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:15
I was very skeptical of him as a top 10 pick given the lack of summer/wood bat/quality pitching track record for the stakes that come with a pick that high, but liked the kid and the tools.
The performance has been fine, but not enough to materially change my opinion at this point. Curious what we find on the OAK system deep dive
Diley KcManiel
12:15
Seems like Jose Israel Garcia made some serious strides this year? What's he looking like moving forward?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:16
I would guess top 100
James
12:16
Service-time manipulation question: Michael Kopech came up for a month in 2018 then got hurt. So his clock was running during his rehab (2019). But could the Sox start him in the minors and keep him down for a month to recoup the days/time from 2018 and add another year that way? (Very shady as he's ALREADY proven he can pitch at MLB level, but Reinsdorf has always felt all is fair when squeezing labor.)
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:17
I guess they COULD, but to option him after he's off his rehab, he would have to look materially different in some measurable way (stuff isn't back, etc.) to justify that. That would be a case where the player's grievance would have a good shot to win
12:18
Signing him to an extension once the arm seems back to what it was seems like the way to monetize the uncertainty
Not sure what Kopech's appetite for that would be
Joe
12:18
Are you still working on a glossary that gives a job description for all the various baseball operations job titles? If so, will it be available soon? Thanks
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:18
It is in the book
12:19
You can preorder it here at 20% off with coupon code FV20 for the rest of 2019: https://www.triumphbooks.com/future-value-products-9781629377674.php?p...
(probably should've mentioned that at the top)
Some news!
from seconds ago
12:20
Makes sense to add length to rotation without a long-term deal that limits flexibility or chances for youngsters that emerge, given how ATL has been acting lately
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