JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 12/4/19

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Kiley McDaniel

12:20

Basically takes the Teheran spot

claylink

12:20

Kiley, is wheeler's likely nine-figure payout a sign of things to come for free agent pitchers whose stuff is more persuasive than their résumé or is his proximity to strasburg and cole just making him more appealing as a way to save face with fanbases with high expectations?

Kiley McDaniel

12:21

I think some teams (during the FA research it was clearly not all) see Wheeler as a potential frontline type that they can get for 1/3 the price of Cole, who is at a price many markets can't really consider because it eats up all their margin for error.

12:22

And I think the FA market this year will be a little better for players as we saw what happened to teams that tried to be good in 2019, since teams are kinda sheep when it comes to trends and lots of GMs are on hot seats whereas two years ago very few were...partly because some weren't trying to win primarily the last few years

Roy Hobbs

12:23

Hi, From those that you have talked to can you give us a synopsis on Tsutsugo? Current Value/FV..... What you see him as based upon any info and perhaps an idea about destinations. Thanks, Ill hang up and listen.

Kiley McDaniel

12:23

45 or 50, more likely a 45 along the lines of Corey Dickerson, but enough uncertainty it could be a little more impact with the bat

Kiley Boras

12:23

If you hypothetically started your own agency, how would you differentiate yourself from everyone else?

Kiley McDaniel

12:24

Not easy to do since every lane is kinda taken and doing the whole "we'll treat you better" human touch thing doesn't really work until you have a bunch of players of some import that can vouch for it. Just have to have better employees than everyone else, at some level.

Sean

12:25

How much variance is there in how teams are acquiring international free agent prospects? Are some teams way ahead of others or is it pretty close among the teams?

Kiley McDaniel

12:26

There is a two chapter stretch in the book about this that's over 20,000 words. We talked to multiple int'l directors, have tons of wild stories about how they land players (that you've heard of) and what their process is, what they suspect rival teams are like, enough that most of them went off-the-record when it got to that part of the conversation.

the short version is there's a good bit of variance team to team but there seems to be a "correct" answer that the best teams are all doing their own flavor of

UpInArms

12:27

Are you higher on Brendan McKay or Dustin May? Does Zac Gallen outpitch McKay or May, both, or neither next year?

Kiley McDaniel

12:27

May
McKay
Gallen

Jason

12:27

Any insights regarding Red Sox international signing Chih-Jung Liu from Taiwan? He seems like a bit of a pop-up guy having taken time off from pitching, then reemerging this year with newfound velo and a coming out performance at the Asian Baseball Championship (i.e., touching upper 90s with FB, dominant in relief, MVP honors). I know he’s older than most J2 prospects, but had that performance been a year earlier, are we looking at a guy who may have ranked favorably on the board for the 2019 J2 class?

Kiley McDaniel

12:28

Writing up that blurb today to be on the site likely tomorrow. He's in a good spot on that list and when we ranked the J2 class even the clubs that signed him were lower than before that tournament.

Chaise

12:28

In regard to the dollar values associated with FV (ie a 70 bat is "worth" $112M), is this considered surplus value? I'm struggling to compare players with years of control/arb values to prospects and don't know if it's a good comparison to look at the worth of FV compared to surplus value of controlled players.

Kiley McDaniel

12:28

Yes, $112M in NPV of the value above the cost for the 6-7 years of control

12:30

So, Wander Franco would cost (broadly approximating the figures) $40M for his controlled years and return $152M, in NPV terms. NPV means adjusted for time value of money, so 40 and 152 are lower than the actual numbers, but we're giving you what those numbers in the future would be worth today.

Donut

12:30

If you had to give a most improved front office award to an org who has had the biggest improvement with analytics/scouting/player dev integration, what org would you give it to for this past season?

Kiley McDaniel

12:31

Maybe it's over the last two years, but the Twins came to mind first. Brewers did a similar thing just before, Rays/Yankees/Dodgers did it just before them. Arizona and SF are in the midst of doing it now.

Jim

12:31

General question about odd prospect profiles. Why don't pitchers with a plus plus secondary get little love only because their FB is subpar? Isn't velo separation as important as pure velocity? Eli Morgan is a an example that comes to mind. 70 change, easy 60 command, but 40 FB buries him down lists even though the combo works.

Kiley McDaniel

12:34

The hesitation is because MLB hitters can sit on the changeup and react to the fastball unless the velo improves or the command is consistently plus. Only as good as your weakest pitch. Some pitchers can get by with a weak third pitch by not throwing it much, so it isn't really part of the chain/link metaphor, but having one standout quality and fringe everything else doesn't really work except in specific roles, like low-slot matchup relievers, or Luke Gregerson as the slider sommelier. Kyle Hendricks would be the contemporary example of the Eli Morgan path, but there aren't many others, especially as RHP and the trick can't work forever.

12:35

(side note, the concept of the gun sommelier in John Wick 2 was interesting and I think Gregerson playing that role with sliders in a video about pitch design could be funny)

Hottub

12:35

What do you think about the Orioles inability to get more than a fringe name for Villar? A tactical mistake or a true lack of interest at the predicted arb cost?

Kiley McDaniel

12:36

Arb is pretty broken process for multiple reasons. The one that applies here is it forces you to pay average players with big bulk stats more than they'd get as FA, or with RP that rack up saves. If there was a big surplus value, it would've been reflected in the trade market.

Smiley McKaniel

12:36

Is Hunter Greene just Alex Reyes part II?

Kiley McDaniel

12:36

I think Greene is better than that, but that would be the disappointing/scary lower-tier outcome

Kiner's Disembodied Hands

12:36

Any scuttlebutt on the sort of direction the Pirates might be headed? How're their recent hires in the FO and manager perceived within baseball circles?

Kiley McDaniel

12:38

Cherington was seen to be looking for a lower profile/payroll spot where he can control the process and take a long-term view and everything he's done so far seems in line with that. I wonder how different his approach will be this time, in this setting. Anthopoulos obviously changed his GM POV with the LA stop between TOR and ATL. Wonder how much Cherington's changed after his time in TOR.

Matt D

12:38

While the Red Sox system is generally ranked in the lower third of all system overviews, do you seem the potential for them to jump up the rankings in the near future? I would argue that most of their top prospects had positive progressions this year.

Kiley McDaniel

12:38

This (potential to jump) is the overarching thing you'll see in the list tomorrow

Royce Lewis

12:38

Stats wise struggled this year, but finished with a strong AFL. Interested in how your view of him has changed through the year (if at all) and what your view is on future position

Kiley McDaniel

12:40

We decided to stay bullish on him because we thought he'd bounceback from the down statistical year for a number of reasons and it already started happening in the AFL. If we just mechanically downgraded guys for having bad stats, then upgraded them with the stats got better, a model could pretty easily replace us, so we put some chips on Royce in our bid to not be replaced by computers. Royce, don't let us down.

Jon G

12:40

Who is the most memeable prospect in baseball?

Kiley McDaniel

12:41

No one immediately came to mind, but the gf and I think Henry from the most recent season of GBBS was extremely memeable

Ryan

12:41

A few months ago I asked you if you'd be bumping Corbin Carroll up to a 50 in the off season, and you said probably not. I'm just curious what changed in your evaluation of him? Thank you!

Kiley McDaniel

12:41

I think the exit velos from his debut was the strongest new piece of information

Leave Me In

12:41

Hi Kiley - Do you think three-batter rule is definitely coming next season? Are teams already factoring it in (e.g. in contract of Diekman, who has very even splits)?

Kiley McDaniel

12:42

I think it's already been announced? Or is very likely?

Kiley McAuthor

12:42

What was the most surprising thing about writing a book after actually doing it?

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