You are viewing the chat in desktop mode. Click here to switch to mobile view.
X
Kiley McDaniel Chat - 12/4/19
powered byJotCast
Prev Page View Full Chat Next Page
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:43
The effort that comes with trying to be comprehensive. Added a couple paragraphs after we turned it in because the article I'd been looking for (that didn't exist) was written. Obviously I can't just do that forever and I'm sure we'll forget stuff that we should've included. For an OCD type in this area, it's a little annoying
Balboni's Bat
12:43
Does Julio Rodriguez have a chance for 65 FV this summer?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:43
No, but chance for it in the next 12 months
A Dummy
12:44
I know this is a silly question, but I don't know the answer. Is there a danger to concentrating too much organizational value in your farm system? It seems like a decent team, if they felt like it, could mortgage their major-league roster into by far and away the best minor-league system around, and become early favorites for the 2025 playoffs. Call it "The Process." Are there financial or structural risks here that make it a very dumb strategy? Thanks!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:44
Gotta have top-notch development so the value doesn't depreciate right after you pay for it
And, at some point, the number of roster spots and 40-man roster spots will become an issue
along with regular playing time spots
12:45
we see this at times from the orgs with the longest lists (SDP/TBR/NYY) where a potential MLB shortstop is on a team with three others and one of them gets to play SS once a week
I'd say quality of PD is the first issue, 40-man roster spots is issue two, then playing time/MILB roster spots is issue three
Gumby
12:46
Are there prospect evaluation tendencies that you expect will result in changes to the makeup of the farm system between the Huntington and Cherington regimes?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:46
Cherington wasn't necessarily model-driven in Boston but Toronto was when he was there. Obviously the game changed a good bit since he was in Boston, so I'd expect Cherington to be a little more on that progressive end of things than Huntington was. But, again, that's an informed guess at best.
12:48
speaking to the depth/options for ATL I referenced as the Hamels deal came up
Will
12:49
Reading through prospect lists for a while, it seems you and Eric have a proclivity for body comps to football players. Is this something that's common in scouting parlance, or is it more of a personal touch that you guys think is the best way to relate frames and builds?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:50
Football is the second sport for both of us and maybe an area we could've worked in had things fallen differently. I think that's true for many scouts/coaches, so it's somewhat common. The Cristian Pache would be an LSU wide receiver if he was American/Yoan Moncada would be an Alabama RB, etc. just makes total sense to us while also painting a picture
Or body-comping Aaron Judge to Blake Griffin, etc.
Spicyboy
12:51
So is it correct to say that Ryan vilade will not be a major league ss?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:51
Correct
Draftnik
12:51
Does Nate Wohlgemuth -- who was throwing really hard in Jupiter -- sneak into the first round?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:52
Probably comp round right now, so yeah there's a real shot
Charlie
12:52
Ed Howard got a chance at top 10 this summer? Sox fan, we are 11.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:52
Yep, has a shot
Jared
12:52
Obvious caveat that “1st pro season stats don’t matter”, but seems like Bobby Witt could be concerning. Old for his class and below average rookie league performance. Should his expectations be tempered a bit?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:53
Huge EV in pro ball. The Trevor Story comps still apply.
Alex
12:53
Kiley, do you think we should take the fact that the Yankees brass traveled out to California to meet with Cole/Stras a week in advance of the winter meetings as a sign that they will aggressively pursue them or just that they want to do their due diligence and present good optics to the fanbase?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:53
I'm sure it's 1 but 2 will also happen
Brian
12:54
Any chance that the top free agents list can be updated to include non-tendered guys?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:54
Don't think many of them would be top 50 candidates anyway
but Jason Martinez has up-to-the-second updates to who is a FA, along with contract details, Steamer projections, crowdsourcing, etc. here: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker
Seattle Power
12:55
I know you hate comps and such....BUT Is Julio Rodriguez have a Juan Soto in his range of outcomes?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:55
More Jo Adell in terms of enough contact ability, explosive raw/bat speed, athlete. Soto is more hit and power equally, lesser athlete
Hinkie
12:55
Are the Phillies still expected to sign Yhoswar Garcia despite the situation/suspension over his age?  If so ... will it be for less than the originally reported ~2 million dollar deal?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:56
We were told it was 3-4 years difference on age, so it's likely 100-200K max, using other similar instances as a guide. Haven't heard who is on him since that's below our level of interest for int'l amateurs.
Duhbear
12:56
What makes you completely change your take on a prospect? Seems like most guys will only change a half grade from their most recent grade in an offseason, but what will push you to jump a guy from a 35->45+ or 40->55?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:57
Development is linear in most instances. Each list has 1-2 guys where they dramatically change and we try to dramatically change the grades to stay up with that. It can seem dry or boring to incrementally change guys, but that's usually what's happening
Nils
12:57
Is Eduardo Vaughan one of the pop up j2 prospects in the Sox system you were referring to?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:58
He had already snuck on the list during the season: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...
I meant the class that signed in July and hasn't played in the DSL yet. But there's also one notable popup guy from the DSL team and a couple just below him
Cito's Mustache
12:58
If $/WAR is not linear year-to-year, how do we go about projecting multi-year contract value?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:59
It is largely, but it seems like some teams (with the best development) are treating that 1st WAR lower than the subsequent ones since they think they can create 1 WAR players reliably
Connecting…