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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 3/20/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:10
Coming to you live from ATL a little later than usual because I'm moving onto my third contractor now. Scout has chased all the squirrels and chipmunks and is taking a nap next to me. On to your questions:
Ben M
2:10
It feels like to date we aren't getting the same type of negative reports on the high schoolers that caused players like gorman to slide last year. Is that accurate?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:12
Not a question I get very often. I think Gorman may have stood out more because he was a top 10 overall prospect for us wire to wire but had some clear deficiencies that got a little worse during the spring
That said, we kept him in the top 10 (we settled on him at 7th, he went 19th overall) because we thought those things were fixable and the strengths were too good to pass up
2:13
So I wouldn't say that was a unique amount of negative info on a top prospect. We have said Abrams probably can't play SS longterm, Witt has real hit tool questions, Espino has a really long arm stroke and may throw too hard too early, etc. which is on par with the Gorman stuff
shf9
2:13
What's going on with Carter Stewart?  He's falling fast down your draft rankings.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:15
two quick draft questions, then I'll get to some pro stuff. The reports on Stewart are notably worse than this point last year. Around this point last year, Stewart was 93-95, touching 97 mph, flashing a 70 curveball and showing starter traits. Now he's mostly 90-93, touching 97 but not in the strike zone, curveball is flashing 60 and the body/delivery/command have regressed. The main concern about the wrist last summer is the quality of the breaking ball would regress and that has happened along with some athleticism, which is likely unrelated. Could still bounce back, but he's a clear tier lower now
Jeb
2:15
Is Ke'Bryan Hayes a future star? Could he turn into a Matt Chapman type of player?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:21
Wouldn't call it likely. Chapman is something like 55 or 60 hit and power and 70 or 80 glove. We have Hayes at 55 hit, 45 power, 70 glove. Hayes' raw power is about a 50 or 55, so there's a shot he puts it all together and there are signs he's lifting the ball more. In terms of the guy most likely to have those three tool grades that Chapman has, Hayes is probably the most likely in the minors. Tatis and Senzel both seem capable, too.
we pegged Hayes chance of being a perennial 4-5 WAR player at about 15-20%, so call it 1 in 5 or 1 in 6 that he pulls something like Chapman off
AA
2:22
Which youngin wins the starting spot (or two) for the Bravos
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:25
Seems pretty muddled at this point and there's a chance Gausman, Folty and Soroka all miss the first couple weeks, while Newcomb has been awful today. Seems like Kyle Wright then Touki Toussaint are the leading candidates among the youngsters. Max Fried and Bryse Wilson can both do bullpen things. Allard, Gohara, Anderson, Muller stay in the minors.
Kevin
2:25
Between Adonis Medina and Spencer Howard, who has a higher floor? What about bigger upside?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:25
Howard higher floor, Medina higher upside
Vslyke
2:25
Has framing been an emphasis of scouting catchers? If not, has that started to change recently?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:26
It's hard, especially below the SEC/ACC levels, to really have a sense for that because the umpiring and instruction for catchers is so bad. From a scouting perspective, you're looking for elements to frame more often, which is flexibility, mobility, hand strength and intelligence.
Hunter Bishop
2:26
Could I go as high as 3rd?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:26
I don't see that, with Abrams and Witt right there, but if you keep going nuts, maybe 8-10?
Will
2:27
Too early to panic about the direction of the White Sox rebuild?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:31
I would say yes, but things haven't been going super well the last year or so. Kopech was going well then he blew out. Eloy is still going well but the body is pointing to 1B/DH pretty soon. The college corner bats in the draft (Collins, Burger, Sheets, Fisher, Call) haven't done much. Dunning, Burdi, and Adolfo blew out. Robert hasn't had a breakthrough yet. We believe in Madrigal but his debut raised some questions that weren't really there before. Basabe and Rutherford don't look like likely regulars to us anymore. Hansen got hurt and regressed. Moncada, Rodon, Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez haven't been as advertised.
2:33
So, yes that a lot of bad fortune all strung together and not necessarily bad planning or picking the wrong players, as we were on Kopech, Eloy, Moncada, Dunning, Burdi, Adolfo, Robert, Madrigal and Rodon too. But when you're trying to have a bunch of assets appreciate and form a core and most of the top assets depreciated, that's just making things harder, even if it isn't necessarily any one person's fault.
Jason N
2:33
Even if/when Paddack makes the opening day roster, is he likely to spend enough time in the minors to get an extra year of control?  With his innings limit in place, there’s enough reason to get him some mid-season rest for a few weeks.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:35
I don't get the impression that SD thinks about this the same way or at least to the same extent as other clubs do. It's also less likely to matter 6 years from now when it's a pitcher with a TJ in his past. But yes, midseason rest in AAA for a few weeks after a few bad starts is still on the table.
Danny
2:35
Do you think Kevin Alacantra starts in DSL, GCL or Appy?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:35
I'll say 60% GCL, 40% DSL
Kevin Jacobs
2:35
What round do you see Josh Wolf going?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:36
Saw him last week for a few innings, 94-96, touched 97 with plus life, 55 flashing curve, some effort but chance to start, 6'2/175, a little smaller than most clubs like to take a HS righty, so more 2nd round than 1st
James
2:36
How do former South Carolina pitchers Wil Crowe and Clarke Schmidt compare at this point?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:36
Both above average stuff, starter look, no true 60 qualities so more innings eaters. Crowe could be up this year, Schmidt more 2020, I'd guess.
Bill
2:36
Does Adrian Morejon stick in the rotation or does the plethora of young arm talent in the Padres org have him destined for the bullpen?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:37
Rotation. Gore, Patino, Morejon would be the best three that won't get MLB time this year. Wait and see if Baez, Espinoza, Weathers can get to that level.
DJ Tanner
2:37
When these Minor Leaguers are getting optioned, is it announced which level they are heading as well? Any idea if that information is available yet?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:37
Nope, just to minor league camp, then we generally find out MILB club assignments right around MILB opening day
Jake
2:39
What do you think are the chances of the Rays moving Brujan off 2B?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:39
Almost 0%? They think he'd be fine at SS, there's just always been a more traditional SS on his team
Marc
2:39
Analysts often use average launch angle to evaluate performance, but wouldn't another good stat to use be standard deviation of launch angle?  Figure that a guy who can more consistently hit at a certain launch angle could be better poised for a breakout by raising that angle
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:41
I think launch angle is more used to either 1) talk about a specific ball in play or 2) used in average to show an obvious change in approach. There's better ways to describe how a player is hitting over a longer period with a couple numbers than just avg exit velo or launch angle. what you suggest would be one in a suite of options, depending on what specifically you're trying to measure
Slurve
2:41
Reasonable line for Christin Stewart?  Can he avoid DH-only?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:41
Eh, it's gonna be Schwarber-like in LF. So, in the AL, no reason to force yourself to do that.
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