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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 3/20/19
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Lyle
2:41
What do Beau Burrows and Franklin Perez need to do to regain 50 FV status?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:41
Perez just needs to stay healthy and maintain his stuff. Burrows' stuff has backed up a bit, so he needs it to come back some.
NotGraphs Revivalist
2:41
CATCHER FRAMING STATS! WOW! Is framing the most important defensive trait for a catcher to develop? It seems like it has a pretty massive impact defensive WAR
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:42
In terms of WAR calculation, yes. Most on-field people would say game calling and blocking because that affects every pitch as well and limits what the pitcher can do in ways that can't be quantified from the outside.
Babyfarts Mckeezack
2:43
Is Paddack’s base case scenario still considered a #3? Spring training stats mean nothing I know. Just seems impressive  anytime I see videos of him pitching.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:43
Best case scenario is probably James Shields. FB/CH guy who hits the ground running in MLB, then finds another tick or two of velo and that helps his CB play consistently avg to above. Maybe #2 for a couple years at peak?
Chris
2:44
Is there a chance the White Sox will switch to a HS player this year given Rutschman is off the board at 3?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:45
I'm hearing college bats and it's now looking like Rutschman and Vaughn are gone, so then it opens up a lot after them. Stott, Busch, Misner, Bleday, Jung, Wilson are all candidates but probably only the first three are reasonable that high. It'll be tough to pass on Abrams and Witt, so I'd imagine they get discussed as well
Dieter
2:45
what is julio rodriguez's ceiling? could he be a top 30 overall prospect by next year?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:46
If he goes nuts as an 18-year-old in Low-A, then yeah he could be in the 25-50 range overall
Chaise
2:46
Okay, Ethan Small has to get some love, right?  He's striking out almost 2 per inning!  Struck out 11 in six innings against Florida!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:47
Was added to the draft board a couple days ago. He's 22 and pitches with a fringe fastball, but he's performed and has feel
Meltor
2:47
How would you rate these guys on future fantasy impact:nico hoerner
nolan gorman
victor victor mesa
jon india
kebryan hayes
vidal brujan
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:47
hayes, brujan, gorman, india, hoerner, mesa
JT
2:47
How does Hunter Bishop compare to Conforto when he was in college?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:48
Conforto had a better approach and hit tool by a pretty good margin. Bishop has a little more raw and speed and has a chance to play CF. Conforto at draft time is still better, given the offensive track record
bubbf
2:48
Saw on twitter that you were in Waco recently. Any scouting thoughts on some of Baylor's less heralded guys like Davis Wendzel and Nick Loftin?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:48
Wendzel is another 22 year old college guy, fringe power, sticks at 3B, some feel to hit, 5th round or so
bubbf
2:49
I notice that Jackson Rutledge dropped a bit after you saw him in person. What did you see that led to him sinking down The Board?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:50
Doesn't pitch with much conviction, kinda sailed on pure ability for me and others have seen the same thing. control over command that wasn't punished much vs. lesser hitters, doesn't seem to have the mentality/aggression to relieve, which may be the best use of his ability. Lots of size and stuff and it comes out easy, but not sure what it will be
2:52
Scout just saw a blue jay in the backyard and asked to go outside, then sprinted after it and barked "coward" when it flew away
pelkey
2:52
i think touki's CB used to grade at a near 80. it's now listed as a 65. in the most recent write up, it says that he usually throws a 60  but will occasionally break off a 70. as this metamorphosis occurred, touki's command took a step forward. so my questions are, did he dial back stuff in exchange for command? is this a typical trade off. if there was a conscious preference for location over movement, and that choice was made to make the pitch more effective, then why are the grades downgraded? or does a grade really focus on things like velo and movement, and ignore effectiveness? thanks!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:53
I only saw 70, but CB is maybe the hardest pitch to see a true 80 in my experience in part because a true 80 would break from out of the strike zone on one side to out on the other side
2:54
Yes, the CB was dialed down some when his command got better, so there's a direct connection between effort/arm speed/command
kinda like in golf, you can't swing max effort every time and still be effective, but you can maybe pick a couple spots a round and make it work for you
Smith > Vogelbach?
2:54
If a prospect's main negative is that he has a "bad body", couldn't that be viewed as a plus in that it should be pretty easy nowadays to get someone to drop some weight if they can stick to a conditioning plan?  It's certainly got to be easier than teaching someone to swing and miss less, right?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:55
But it also reflects poorly on their work ethic/makeup if, in this era, they put on a bunch of weight when they knew how to avoid it. If the weight add/loss comes with a mental change, then sure, but a swing change could also qualify for a "didn't know what I was doing then someone taught me" and that's the best way to improve, in these terms.
Matt Sanders
2:56
I'm considering going to see Georgia play LSU this Saturday. I watch Georgia pretty often, but is there anyone from LSU I should pay special attention to? In particular, is there anyone flying under the radar now who you think could end up being a big name in the Draft?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:57
They have a ton of draftable talent, which is all on the three years of THE BOARD here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-mlb-draft?sort=-1,1...
2:58
best prospects on the team would be
2019: 2B Josh Smith, RHP Zach Hess, CF Zach Watson, RHP Todd Peterson, CF Antoine Duplantis
2020: LF Daniel Cabrera
2021: RHP Jaden Hill, C CJ Willis, RHP Landon Marceaux
Angelus Novus
2:58
Mike Elias made an interesting comment the other day about hoping Hays will be the Orioles future CF. Do you think Hays is better defensively than Mullins?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:58
Closer than you'd think but I'd still lean Mullins
Cardinal90
2:59
What is Drey Jameson's ceiling in this year's draft?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
2:59
Maybe late 2nd, probably more 3rd-4th
Guest
2:59
I’ve been thinking about Osiel Rodriguez (and, to a lesser extent, Antonio Gomez) getting way less from NYY in signing bonuses than might otherwise be expected. Is this likely an instance of getting taking way less than others might have subsequently offered because they developed late (seems unlikely here), taking less to be in the desired org, something more nefarious, other?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:00
Clubs generally don't try to poach other clubs' early deal guys. NYY has been good about locking guys up early that in the next 1-3 years appreciate in value.
Yeah Bouy
3:00
If you were drafting with the next few years in mind, who do you take at 3B....India, Brohm or Gorman?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:00
You could really put them in just about any order. I have a feeling our order will flip a lot over the years.
Tom
3:01
What is a good comp for Jasson Dominguez? And removing the incomparable Wander Franco from the discussion, how good is he in comparison to previous J2 signings?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
3:02
Probably better than Maitan at the same stage? Right around there. Not really a good comp, maybe what we though Moncada was going to be?
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