JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 4/10/19

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Kiley McDaniel

1:07

Probably comp round, barring injury

Kevin J

1:07

What is your take on JJ Goss and Josh Wolf?

Kiley McDaniel

1:08

Like them both, Goss is in play for back half of first to comp, chance for two 60's and SP traits at times. Wolf is of slighter build but has just as much stuff, more 2nd round to early 3rd.

Matt Damon

1:10

Why is Espino falling!

Kiley McDaniel

1:10

Alright I'll take one more time to be as diplomatic as possible on this. He was 96-100 (give or take, depending on the gun) in his first start at Hoover on March 8th, then I saw him March 21 and he was 92-95 t96. I talked to scouts that saw him the start between those and the start or two after the one I saw and they all said they got the same velo I did.

1:11

As stated earlier, I'm lower on HS RHP in general for the risk of the whole demographic

1:12

Specifically on Espino, there's no projection, a really long arm action, and it's mostly FB/breaker (though he has two breakers) at this point. I think it's a positive for him to be throwing more 92-95 because the odds of blowing out when you sit 98 as a teenager for years at a time gets really close to a certainty, unfortunately by looking at the examples we have of that. When you're looking at teenage pitchers and trying to project 5-10 years in the future what they'll be, health is the biggest factor, so clubs are very particular about how a pitcher does it, thus the drastically varying rankings of HS pitchers bc every team has their own version.

1:15

So, when talking to scouts about how they rank the HS RHP, essentially all of them are throwing 92-95, give or take a tick at this point, and almost all of them flash 55 to 65 breaking balls, so the ones with a little more projection and polish tend to be ahead of Espino. Right now, that top tier is 15 through 40 (Allan, Malone, Priester, Leiter, Espino, Goss, Barco) and some teams will picking in that range will not consider taking some of them due to size, arm action, they don't like HS RHP in general, medical, etc. There's lots of variance in the ranking from team to team, but the guys at the top/middle/bottom of that tier tend to be in that general spot for most clubs.

1:16

And it'll change between here and draft day, I want all of those kids to stay healthy and succeed and get drafted high.

Teft

1:22

What is Kolby Allard?

Kiley McDaniel

1:22

Backend starter

Pete Davidson

1:22

From a stuff standpoint what are you hearing on Nick Lodolo this year? Is his rise up the boards due more to a combo of performance and lack of college pitching or have any of his pitches (or command) improved from where they were a year ago?

Kiley McDaniel

1:23

Stuff has improved throughout the spring. Opening weekend Eric saw two 60's FB/CB, very few CH and fine but not great command. One recent start a scout told me he was two 60's but it was FB/CH and the command was 50 or 55. Other times he's shown three 6's and 5 command. If he closes strong, he'll go in the top 10.

1:23

How's Lodolo's velo?

Kiley McDaniel

1:24

92-95, t96, give or take a bit in any given start

Jon Jones

1:24

How confident are scouts on Nasim Nunez hit tool? Is his cieling a 50 hit with like 60 defense or can the hit be above average to plus?

Kiley McDaniel

1:24

I'd probably go 55 hit, 40-45 future game power, 55-60 glove and run

1:24

Any new news on July 2 guys? White Sox connected to 22yo Yolbert Sanchez?

Kiley McDaniel

1:25

Haven't heard much buzz there but we know he has at least one offer for 2019 that's well into the 7 figures, so he may be holding out for that.

Guest

1:25

Glenn Otto looks to be a bullpen arm still or chance for starter?

Kiley McDaniel

1:25

Chance to start, but I think it'll end up being RP

Rey Diablo

1:26

It’s super early, I know, but Glasnow is at .3 WAR and Meadows is at .4 while Archer is at .1; what are the chances both Glasnow and Meadows out perform Archer this season?

Kiley McDaniel

1:28

I think I proposed this scenario at the time of the trade? I've always been a little skeptical of Archer going forward given that, at one point recently, and possibly still now, he had thrown the most SLs in the recorded history of baseball over a 2-3 year period. That isn't guaranteed to spell doom, but I generally bet against pitchers improving/holding performance for a really long time and that fact meant I was more bearish than the baseline. Also he was doing this b/c his fastball was getting hit really hard, and velo tends to go down over time, so that would only tend to get worse, all things else being equal. Lots of circumstantial stuff, to be sure, but not stuff I liked.

Jon jones

1:28

What round do you expect Logan Wyatt, Spencer Brickhouse, Bryant Packard, or Matthew Barefoot go in?

Kiley McDaniel

1:29

3rd-5th for all of them, more 4th-5th likely

Phillie Phanatic

1:29

tippy top best outcome scenario for Jordyn Adams is what we all thought Byron Buxton was going to be, right?

Kiley McDaniel

1:29

Yeah it's that kind of raw physical ability

Caleb

1:29

Did you see the Ozuna play??

Kiley McDaniel

1:30

Haha yes. I know it's hard to both track the ball and climb the wall, but to track it then turn your head and climb and assume the ball goes where you thought it would...that seems like not the best way to do that? He could track it the whole way and jump at the wall if necessary and cover like 75% as much ground and maintain options, right?

skardatzke

1:31

Hi Kiley! Love your work! Do you have any old prospect info on Jorge Polanco, specifically FV and 80-20 (20-80?) Tool scores?

Kiley McDaniel

1:31

I believe he was a 45 and a 50 in the minor and was an above hit/field/run on the tool grades?

Kiley Quips <3

1:32

Sneaking in some love as I've slacked making it to your chats recently. Flames better have been stoked and esteems crushed!

Keefths

1:32

when is Jasson dominguez gona start playing in the minors ?

Kiley McDaniel

1:32

next summer

PatEdMartin

1:32

Is Dylan Crews a catcher at the next level? Also, any chance he plays in college?

Kiley McDaniel

1:33

Sounds like a pretty hard no on the catching. Used to do it earlier in HS and I'm told he doesn't want to go back. I would assume he's a pro guy, but you never know on any specific kid's situation.

Mike G

1:33

Derek Hill's arm, glove and speed all got graded down when he stopped hitting. Did his tools all regress or were they all over hyped as a prep?

Kiley McDaniel

1:34

Slowly regressed. At Area Codes before his senior year, it was multiple 80 run times and highlight reel plays in CF, projected as a 60 or 70 defender. Neither tool is that good anymore.

Caleb

1:34

Plays like that really are a big part of the joy of baseball though. We should all thank Ozuna.

Kiley McDaniel

1:34

Oh it was super earnest and entertaining. I'm sure OF instructors are using this as a techable moment today

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