JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 4/17/19

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Kiley McDaniel

1:29

Hello from ATL! Had a lunch date with friends of the chat Nick Piecoro and Keith Law (name drops) but I'm here to chat with you

Podcast went up today about my recent Florida trip, extension talk and GOT hot takes: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-kiley-mcdaniel-welcomes-th...

Jeff

1:30

Any new buzz inside the top 10 of the draft?

Kiley McDaniel

1:32

An unusual amount of KC fans were interested/outraged/surprised that I said last week most of the industry thinks KC will take Andrew Vaughn at 2. Still seems that way, but talked to some folks this week that think they'll go with Bobby Witt, conceding that it's probably one of the two. CHW would definitely not pass on Vaughn if KC did and rumors have MIA leaning college as well, but the top college guy at that point isn't as clear. A recent shuffle at the top of our rankings has Nick Lodolo and JJ Bleday as their best options.

Shooter

1:32

Couple of draft questions...what are you hearing on Kody Hoese, and what the hell happened to Mitchell Senger?

Kiley McDaniel

1:33

Senger is a lefty from Stetson, a mid major school with a sneaky-good track record for pitching (Kluber, deGrom, Logan Gilbert, Mitchell Jordan, now Senger). He got the yips early and now is back on track, out of the pen. Could be a Nick Sprengel-type late flier based on a solid track record.

1:34

Hoese is a popup 3B at Tulane that sounds like someone will take in the 2nd round this year. Was eligible last year but not really on the radar, was taken late. Stronger and with a better approach this year, he's putting up bonkers numbers, may only be a 4 bat, is 22 on draft day and doesn't have 60 raw power, but can play 3B and performers with some tools kinda run out around the late 2nd round, so there he is.

The West is Wild

1:34

How many "Matt Damon's" usually type in MATT. DAMON. in a given chat? Is it a solo effort or is this an Eno ludes thing now?

Kiley McDaniel

1:35

Usually only 1 or 2, which is kinda amazing? I think it's a solo effort.

Tommy N.

1:35

Ryan Weathers’ new slider gives him a potential 60 FV pitch?

Kiley McDaniel

1:35

Breaking ball has always been above, but sounds like he may be scooting up to a 50 FV in the next update if he keeps pitching like this.

Greg

1:35

Is Hunter Barco a guy with signability issues?

Kiley McDaniel

1:36

I wouldn't say issues in that he's gonna be unsignable past a certain very early pick, but he strikes me as a Joey Wentz-type situation where he likely goes in the comp round for overslot. Jack Leiter is a similar situation, but may have a price as high as $4M+, so he could be a school guy.

The Kid

1:37

Was playing around with THE BOARD and noticed there is no FV command grade above a 60. How is this so? Shouldn't there be at least a few 65/70+ given the nature of the scouting scale?

Kiley McDaniel

1:38

There's an argument to be made that we don't know if someone will have 70 CMD with enough certainty to project it as a median grade until there's some MLB performance. We know some guys on the board will be an 80 bat or 80 command, but we don't project it b/c we're projecting a median outcome. That's why there isn't an 80 FV prospect and only like 1-2 70 FV prospects at a given time. An 80 FV prospect is "we've never seen you face MLB pitching but we think you're gonna be a 6+ WAR guy multiple times". I don't think the consensus has ever been that for anyone, but if it was it was a handful of guys ever, like A-Rod.

Anderson's BABIP

1:39

Lodolo's ceiling, solid mid-rotation arm?

Kiley McDaniel

1:39

Possible #2 if he puts all the elements together. Depending on the day, he'll show three 60 pitches and 55 command, but I don't think he's shown all 4 in any one start this year.

No Bunts

1:40

Could Lodolo be a realistic option at #3?

Kiley McDaniel

1:40

It sounds like he is in CHW's mix with some college bats if Rutschman-Vaughn go 1-2

BillyB

1:40

Yordan Alvarez is raking at AAA as a 21 year old. Regret kicking him out of your top 100?

Kiley McDaniel

1:40

He might be a DH-only guy, so no

Bobby Higginson

1:41

Of the college shortstops ranked around the first round (Stott/Wilson/Shewmake/Jones/Davidson) which are the most likely to have to move off the position at the pro level?

Kiley McDaniel

1:42

Stott is a yes, Davidson is a little lower but yes, Shewmake is fine and is about 50/50 to be SS/2B,, Jones has the tools but may fit better at 2B or CF, Wilson is probably 2B or C but passable at SS.

Anya

1:42

Any early word on how Pache and Waters look?

Kiley McDaniel

1:42

Haven't heard much, but I'll go see that team soon enough. Kinda waiting for Luis Robert to get to Birmingham to make that trip

BlueJayMatt

1:43

Are you hearing Toronto linked with any names at pick 11? Does Hunter Bishop make it to our pick? If not how about JJ Bleday?

Kiley McDaniel

1:43

Same as last week, not hearing a lot of specifics past the top 4, since that's still a bit muddled. Talked to a couple guys this week that spoke in tiers, but that's reflected in the rankings now, if teams are more best available that a strong specific type preference

Pickle Nick

1:44

How far does Carter Stewart fall come June ? As a JUCO guy at what point (round) does he likely go back to school to rebuild value?

Kiley McDaniel

1:45

Sounds like he wants to sign and interest is anywhere from 15 to 45 to not really interested, depending on the team

I would guess he goes 20 to 35

Reid

1:45

Hi Kiley, thanks for the chat. At what point do high school pitchers and high school righties become undervalued in the draft, simply because enough teams refuse to take them? Thinking of Liberatore falling last year despite the obvious gifts.

Kiley McDaniel

1:46

It's a tough market to square because the late developments of 1) medicals, which we don't see and only really hear about post draft and 2) a club having the nerve to pick a prep RHP end up dictating where these guys go.

1:47

A guy could be a consensus 10-15 talent, but 10-12 all had access to higher-ranked guys, 13 doesn't like his arm action, 14-15 are a little worried about the medical, 16-17 don't take prep RHP, 18-19 found an underslot candidate they like just as much and now that prep RHP is going 20th and it wasn't like that consensus was wrong, it just shook out unluckily for him

this sort of thing happens a lot more for prep RHP than other demographics

Freddy

1:48

If both were available in this draft who would be picked higher Spencer Torkelson or Andrew Vaughn?

Kiley McDaniel

1:48

Vaughn

1:48

Whats the upside on Tarik Skubal? Is there long-term starter potential or is he destined for the bullpen?

Kiley McDaniel

1:49

breaking ball has backed up from my first look at him the fall before he signed, but changeup had improved some and he hit 97. There's some chance he can start, but feels to me more like inventory starter that ends up being a middle/long reliever

Hinkie

1:49

Noah Song is a senior and has a Naval commitment, but he looks like an interesting prospect . How does all this play out for him?

Kiley McDaniel

1:49

Sounds like 3rd-4th for someone and since he's 22 it's probably underslot

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