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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 4/24/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:18
Hello from ATL! Scout is chasing critters in the back yard and I'll be leaving shortly for a Georgia HS state playoffs double dip, popup RHP Zach Maxwell then popup SS Brennan Milone
Going to Alabama for at least part of the weekend, seeing rising prep SS Gunnar Henderson tomorrow then the weekend has tons of college options that I'm still sorting through
If you are already in draft mode and somehow didn't see yesterday's mock, here it is: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-1-0-the-top-ten/
12:19
The dope we're hearing is mostly top 7-10 picks and not a whole lot of specific stuff beyond that because many of the top 10 picks are kinda shrug emoji we're not sure who will make it to us, so obviously beyond the top 10 there's even more of that
12:21
And it's a lot of "their top evaluators are seeing players x y and z" and "their mix appears to be a b and c" because we specifically know what a couple teams up are thinking (either they tell us off the record or aren't good at obscuring the truth) and that's as far as they've gotten at this point....so we can't really give you much more than that for most clubs, even picking up high
12:22
And most of the clubs we speak with in the 10 to 20 area are really interested in who we think they have no chance to get, so they can focus resources on the guys they have a shot at.
Andy
12:22
What am I missing on Brady McConnell? He has a strong track record as an amateur and is putting up huge numbers in the SEC. Why isn't he talked about more as a premium draft guy?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
Scouts are not enthusiastic despite some real tools (for some, it's average to above raw, run, glove, arm) because the hit tool and contact rates are worrisome, but I'm sure there's a club out there that sees him more as a Cadyn Grenier (we can fix the contact, focus on the tools) type that's worth high six figures, while many teams have him in the $125-300K area. There's rumors Minnesota offered about $2M out of HS so wouldn't be shocked if they liked him a bit more than others now.
12:27
Sorry, been getting a lot of incoming calls the last 15 min. Distractions done for now!
Josh Nelson
12:27
After reading about the effects AAA now using the same ball as MLB, how does that impact your scouting of prospects at that level (if at all)?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:28
I guess we now have a minor league sneak peek of the power spike some guys get in the big leagues, which should make predicting that sort of thing a bit easier
K26dp
12:28
Kiley, why is every bullpen terrible?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:29
What if they made the bullpen out of a black box?
Bride of McDongenhagen
12:29
Talk to me about Crisitian Pache.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:30
Should be laying my eyes on him/Waters and hopefully Luis Robert soon. Sounds like Pache is taking to the swing changes a little slower than some hoped a few years ago, but it may be clicking now. He's a good case where a non-finished product with plus-plus makeup/athleticism has higher odds of making the changes than a guy with average makeup/athleticism
Part of the reason we've consistently been the high guys on him
12:31
Also a case where old school scouting/investigating the human can supercede what the metrics would tell you
BB&T
12:31
Manoah avging 113 ppg over his last 5. At what point does workload begin to hurt the draft position of top 10 College arms?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:33
Once a week, 113 isn't a huge worry if he's got the stamina to maintain mechanics to around that point. I don't have studies handy, but over the years I've found that the days of rest is a far more important variable than pure pitches. Like 113 pitches everytime isn't a huge issue for a durable/mature pitcher with 6 days of rest, but it is much more of an issue for a less durable/mature pitcher with 4 days of rest. The clearly an issue for any player with any amount of rest/maturity number is 120+ or so?
This is why relievers blow out/lose arm speed way faster than starters do
12:34
30 pitches 3 days in a row is obviously way worse than 90 pitches in one outing, so you can extrapolate that out that Japanese/college 6 days of rest situations give you a little more pitch count slack that 4 days of rest in pro ball
Greg
12:35
Your Braves blurb in the mock was interesting. If you had Bishop to Texas and all the players ATL likes were gone, who would you have mocked to Atlanta?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:35
It would be more of a guess at that point and this is a new director, pretty new regime in general. I'd guess college hitter and tiebreaker would be defensive value (similar to the logic for SFG), so Stott would make the most sense
12:36
But it sounds like SFG is more likely to just take the college hitter they like the most and ATL will have a more broad group, could go underslot to beef up the second pick, etc.
Lilith
12:39
How likely is it that either Abrams or Witt fall all the way to 7 for the Reds?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:39
Lets say 15%
Will
12:39
Is Cole Tucker going to stick in the majors? He certainly seems like the best SS option that the Pirates have
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
He's super interesting and some of the stuff we were hoping would happen one day but also might never happen...well some of it has already happened
Tommy N.
12:40
Why has Nick Lodolo’s stock risen so far? Is he more of a floor guy vs an upside guy?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
Flashes three 60 pitches and 55 command at his best, but he's been not quite that good lately.
Lilith
12:41
Could you compare Bleday to India and Senzel? Is he better coming out of the draft? Worse? I'm having trouble comparing them given that I don't know how this class compares to 2018 and 2016.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:42
Offensively speaking, Senzel was something like a 60-65 bat, 50-55 game power at draft time, we had India about 50-55 and 55, Bleday is probably 55-60 and 55. Bleday has the least defensive value of the three, but probably the 2nd best bat, so pretty comparable
Andy
12:42
What's behind Jerrion Ealy trending down? Will he be a tough sign if he falls out of the first round?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:43
Premium athlete, performed okay over the summer, mechanics have been iffy this spring, you're paying him if, similar to Pache, you like the makeup/athleticism and think you can fix the rest
I think there's some club out there that will meet his price. I would imagine it's $2M or a bit higher.
Hinkie
12:43
I like Aaron Shunk a lot.  What is his draft ceiling?  Could he be another Jonathan India ... SEC 3Bman with a big junior season who ends up in the top half of the first round?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:44
Talked to a few scouts about him last weekend when I was at UGA. chance for 5 hit/power, maybe 6 glove at 3B, some want to try him behind the plate, it's a poor man's Matt Chapman if you squint a bit. Both had colleges that didn't optimize the approach/swing for pro ball, so you have to dream to reach the ceiling more than you'd like for a college player. Schunk likely goes 35-60.
D-burg
12:45
When should we expect to see the most recent J2 class in games?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:45
They'll sign on/around July 2nd, go to either domestic instructs (which we scout) or DR instructs (essentially private), then play in either the DSL or, for the top 15-20 prospects or so, GCL/AZL
12:46
Every now and then you get a Wander Franco/Vlad Jr/Profar that starts in the Appy/Pioneer League, but that's rare
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