JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 4/24/19

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McKiley

12:46

Will the hit tool ever be split into 2? Javy Baez seems to have 80 hand eye coordination but 40ish pitch recognition. Is this accurate?

Kiley McDaniel

12:47

We'll break it up into pitch selection, bat control and bat speed/raw power in some reports. Not sure we'll do that for scouting the amateurs because it's rare that there's a big gap between those numbers, but we do have something in mind to illuminate these situations in the future

Logan

12:47

Do you think Manoah sticks as a starter? Does he have the pitches to avoid pronounced platoon splits?

Kiley McDaniel

12:48

It's a 65 or 70 fastball and breaker, more 45 to 50 CH and command, but that skillset is more valued now than in the past

Daniel

12:48

I read one of your old articles about scouting the hit tool from few years ago. In there you mentioned you would be using the "Peer Grade" to grade the PV of the hit tool, instead of comparing amateur players to current professionals. Based on the looks of THE BOARD, it seems like you no longer do this. Is there any specific reason why you made this change?

Kiley McDaniel

12:49

We do a form of it. Raw HS bats get present 20, advanced get present 25, 30 and 35 for college, 40 for the rare super advanced college bat

12:50

if we did a pure peer grade, then Kelenic would be something like a present 70 (how he performed as an amateur relative to his peers) and a future 60 (we think he'll tap into his power, others will eventually catch up) and that's pretty confusing

Duder

12:50

Maybe you've answered this before, but what kind of analytics are available to teams for amateur players before the draft? Or is it all built on scouting?

Kiley McDaniel

12:52

College Trackman is really widespread now, something like 60 schools have it. TM or a form of it exists at summer HS showcases and the Cape, some HS games are played a pro/college parks that turn on their TM units. Predraft workouts often have it as well. There's also lots of medical and sports science stuff, personality tests, etc. that's team specific. We get glimpses of the TM stuff, especially when there's a huge outlier and it may impact where we rank a guy, but the team specific stuff stays private until after the draft, when we'll often hear it quoted, like the anecdote where Nick Solak broke a team's makeup model, with a score that was higher than they though was possible.

Gary

12:52

Looking at your scouting grades for Bleday/Bishop. Seems like the only place Bleday has an advantage is the hit tool (55 v 50) and then a significant advantage with the arm (55 v 35). How much can arm strength play a difference for teams, especially when both guys are locked into corner OF spots anyway?

Kiley McDaniel

12:53

At that high of a pick and for corner OF, arm doesn't really matter at all. The hit tool grade is really important because 45 means there's some real chance it's 35 or 40 and he becomes a platoon player and 55 means Bleday is one of the safer bats in the whole class.

Especially for a corner OF because hit tool implies the odds they get to all their raw power are also higher, so 50 vs 55 is a big differece

Slothrop

12:54

Does Vlad have the biggest butt on the top 100?

Kiley McDaniel

12:54

We do not have a metric for this, but he's certainly in the conversation

Teddy

12:54

Victor Vodnik has ridiculous numbers so far, and Anthopoulos said today that he's touching 98 at Rome. How far away is he from helping in the big league pen?

Kiley McDaniel

12:56

Years away but the arm strength has really come on. I saw him 92-95 with a 55 breaker in the fall before his draft year and it looked like a Trevor Bauer starter kit. Then during the spring I'm told he was 88-91 and most clubs weren't paying much attention. Then I saw him 92-95 in instructs after signing and now he's 94-98 in 2 inning stints for Rome, so I'll go track him down soon.

Gutshot

12:56

Have you gotten a look at Isaiah Campbell this year and if so, what improvements have you noticed? Future as a starter or bullpen?

Kiley McDaniel

12:57

Got rained out of the game I was supposed to see him pitch at Auburn, hope I'm able to track him down before the draft. Is moving into 2nd-3rd round contention, + FB, above breaker, more strikes.

Spider Puig

12:57

You said in your mock draft that the Reds prefer a college guy at 7, but of their three preferences, only Lodolo fits that description. Did you mean that if they can't get Greene or Abrams, they would prefer to go the college route?

Kiley McDaniel

12:58

I think they want college all things being equal, but they'll take the HS player if they deem him clearly better. In this case, the teams ahead of them deemed the HS players clearly better as well.

Logan

12:58

Is Will Wilson a realistic option to convert to catcher? Any update on his injury?

Kiley McDaniel

12:59

Sounds like it was some combination of a concussion and/or facial laceration depending on whom you ask. I would imagine he's back in the next week or so, which I hope is accurate since I'm heading up there to see him soon. Wilson and Schunk are the two guys that I heard clubs saying they want to see catch but haven't done it before

Jim

12:59

Can you tell us something about Doxakis' or TJ Sikkema's stuff?

Kiley McDaniel

1:00

Both are solid average stuff and feel, sounds like Sikkema has two 55s and Doxakis has one.

mark

1:05

Would recording something like avg pitches seen per AB get at a plate discipline variable?

Kiley McDaniel

1:05

Well just seeing pitches on it's own isn't great. you need to let bad pitches pass and swing at good pitches...which is harder to identify simply.

Doug

1:06

Mets have heat on any names at 12? Saw another outlet mock Zach Thompson to them, but it was mainly off previous tendency.

Kiley McDaniel

1:07

I'll be seeing Thompson in a couple weeks and that's a case where who is in the building will be revealing. There's almost a 0% chance that the club that draft him will have zero scouts there.

Jenista

1:07

Are Players Drafted Last Year elligble to be traded yet?

Kiley McDaniel

1:07

Yes

Blake

1:09

Thoughts on what LSU's Cole Henry has been doing? His offspeed stuff is straight filth.

Kiley McDaniel

1:09

Rising on the 2020 board. Hoping to run him down before the draft to set a baseline, since I saw him at this point last year and will def see him next spring

1:11

Do you think the Reds could take Busch at 9?

Kiley McDaniel

1:11

The Reds pick 7th so I would say very low https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-mlb-draft-signing-bonus-pool-and-pick...

GraphsFan

1:12

Are you able to scout multiple players at once in a game? For people new to scouting, do they have to intensely focus on one player?

Kiley McDaniel

1:12

It's easier but also usually boring to go to a game and only watch one guy with pro potential on the field

1:13

for some SEC games where there's 12 guys with pro potential, it's sometimes too much to watch them all as much as you'd like

often a nice matchup with 3-5 guys spread evenly across teams and pitchers/hitters is ideal to get lots of looks and not be overwhelmed

1:14

I also pay attention to everyone with pro potential, even if not draft eligible (as the 2020 and 2021 board suggest) and scouts typically don't

Slurve

1:14

If draft picks were tradeable commodities, what would 1-1 be "worth"? in dollars or better yet hypothetical players...

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