JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 5/30/18

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Kiley McDaniel

12:03

Hello everyone coming to you live from rainy Orlando while I'm waist deep in scouting notes that will be showing up on THE BOARD soon. Here's what we have at the moment: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=0&pos=all...

Greg

12:03

What's the upcoming mock schedule?

Kiley McDaniel

12:04

One on Thursday or Friday, then another on Monday

Larry

12:04

Would you still put Gorman as the most likely pick for Atlanta?

Kiley McDaniel

12:05

Yes, but there's a growing sense that, with teams in their meetings and little details leaking out, that beyond the top 5-6 picks, there's a lot of uncertainty, private workouts and shifting opinions. And some crazy rumors in the top 5 at teams price shopping to figure out what all their options are.

Tommy N.

12:05

Any late draft whispers for the Padres and their newly acquired bonus pool money? Less likely to go underslot at 7 now?

Kiley McDaniel

12:06

That's one pick with some of the crazy rumors swirling. Still seems like a below slot high school pitcher there, but sounding like they'll also have Swaggerty to choose from (whom they scouted a lot down the stretch and generally fits their type of hitter) and are jockeying to set up their subsequent picks, so it's more chess for SD than the checkers that other teams are playing at their picks.

Paul

12:06

Can you sell me on Nolan Gorman? Everything I'm reading sounds terrifying and huge bust potential. Brutal spring, contact questions, defense questions. Why should I get excited about him as a potential top 10 pick?

Kiley McDaniel

12:08

You seem very level headed about all this. I would direct you to his report at the link at the top of the chat. It wasn't a brutal spring, the stuff that's being said about him is almost exactly the same as what was being said about Austin Riley 12 months ago. If you believe in Gorman's makeup (and most teams do), he could actually be a bit better than Riley since he's lefty and has a hair more power and may also be a little more advanced offensively in general.

Matt D

12:08

Any chance Mize falls to the white sox?

Kiley McDaniel

12:08

Less than 5%, probably less than 1%

Henry

12:08

Any names the Braves are connected to in the second round?

Kiley McDaniel

12:12

There's a slew of HS players (generally ATL's preference) that will go 20-50 and have big price tags. So knowing who is on the board for that pick is almost impossible since the Braves specifically don't have the pool to maneuver a player there. They've been on Bart (1st) and Seigler (2nd round), but neither will get to the picks they've wanted them at and there's not other catchers in play at those picks. So we'd be more guessing on general tendencies, who is available in a mock scenario and games they've been at deep/often.

Billy Beane

12:12

Hey Kiley, THE BOARD is already kickass and getting kick-asser by the day. Question: You guys have no pitchers with a plus-plus delivery. Obviously, there are a lot of different ways to have a good delivery, but who would be an example of an MLB player or a recent prospect who has/had a plus plus delivery as a draft eligible player?

Kiley McDaniel

12:13

Good question. Generally speaking, it would have to be at least a plus athlete, super low effort, everything on time. There aren't a lot of those as amateurs, for a lot of reasons: terrible amateur pitching coaches, kids pitching to the gun, etc.

Jonathan

12:14

The prospect lists with their new format are awesome - everything we want, but presumably faster to write up. I have one request, though: would it be possible to have a "cost-controlled assets" section with PV/FV for select pre-arb players, or would that be a non-trivial time increase? I know you used to do something like this back in the day, and I appreciated it greatly.

Kiley McDaniel

12:15

Our plans for THE BOARD are likely a lot bigger than you guys realize. It will have this, hopefully this year and, eventually, will the the VP on The Rock's presidential ticket, then use that platform to become our first King.

But first, pre-arb asset rankings

Run Home

12:15

Is Lawrence Butler (GA HS) all about projection? Seems you guys are high on him. Would a good comp be Je'Von Ward from last year's draft?

Kiley McDaniel

12:16

Generally that kind of guy, but we think a better version, little more hitability

capconstrained

12:16

Torres >> Albies that is all

Kiley McDaniel

12:17

I'll just say we got some crap from NYY fans after the top 100 went up when we gave Torres 55 hit/power and they said oh man you must not have watched him before he's hit over power he doesn't hit homers THANKS GUYS WE'LL TAKE IT FROM HERE

Dave

12:17

Drew Waters top 100 prospect??

Kiley McDaniel

12:18

Possibly by the end of the year, but not in the current version of the top 100 we have completed and are tinkering with. Another Brave has moved onto the list, though.

Vanessa K.

12:18

Are the Blue Jays still looking mostly at prep players?

Carl

12:18

Do you know who the jays could be linked to at the 12th pick in the draft? I saw somewhere they were linked to high schoolers which was surprising for the front office.

Kiley McDaniel

12:19

Still hearing mostly high school guys unless a college guy that shouldn't get there slides. Sounds like the floor for Swaggerty. If TOR gets Bichette, Pearson and Swaggerty in three consecutive drafts in those spots, Jays fans should be doing backflips.

Henry

12:20

Drew Waters is having a great May. Have you heard anything about his year? I was terrified by the K rate in Danville, but looks good now.

Kiley McDaniel

12:21

Some pro scouts were crushing him in Danville, too. As I've said before, pro scouts seeing high school players for the first time right after the draft may be the most worthless scouting opinion in the entire sport. They have no idea what the player has done, they want to puff their chest out and say the amateur scouts are dumb, almost all the kids are tired and playing everyday for the first time while also playing longer into the year regularly for the first time. By extension, bad stats in that situation are also kinda useless on their own.

12:21

How would Mike Trout grade in THE BOARD's new Frame column? Curious since his body type isn't a common one in baseball, especially among centre fielders

Kiley McDaniel

12:22

Well we don't mean it to say, like he's really strong or well-built, more how it affects his projection. His current frame has no projection, but it suggests he won't break down and is durable, so probably just +.

Run Home

12:22

Thanks for the chat! Will we be surprised next week on how high Larnach gets drafted?

Kiley McDaniel

12:23

Think we're gonna be the high guys on him. if he doesn't go 9-12, then he may slide into the 16-20 range.

Hank

12:23

Austin Riley is striking out 32% of the time in Triple A. Getting beat by velocity consistently. Please make me feel better.

Kiley McDaniel

12:23

you guys are like searching for reasons to be depressed c'mon we're better than this

Matt D

12:23

I don't get the Brady Singer love. Low 90's fastball, lack of wing a miss stuff. Can't you argue Dane Dunning who was a late 1st rounder when was drafted actually had better stuff then Singer at the time.

Kiley McDaniel

12:24

I would say he definitely had and still has better stuff

Connor Scott

12:24

I dropped in your new rankings. Is that just a function of the injury not letting you get enough looks (as you say in the report) or is there something else?

Kiley McDaniel

12:24

That's it. Upside is still the same and some pitchers closed strong and slid up a bit. Also talked to some other scouts that saw you early and they didn't get as good of a look as I did.

Mr. Fister

12:24

Is it time for KC to move Matias up a level?

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