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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 5/30/18
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:46
I know one respected scout that agrees with you, but well over 50% would not.
Mr. Fister
12:46
Flags fly forever, but Dayton Moore's player development team has been terrible over the last 8-10 years. Am I wrong to think that it is time for the organization to go in a new direction with the FO, or am I over-reacting to the atrocious drafting and void of upper level talent in recent years?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:48
I think we've established almost everyone that asks questions in this chat is a little overreactive. That said, GMs clearly have strengths and weaknesses so it isn't insane to want a change when you're moving from a contending period to a rebuild period since very few humans on Earth are world class at both
Ballsandgutters
12:49
Why are you guys higher on Travis Swaggerty than other?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:50
He has maybe the best tools of any position player in the draft and he's performed before, just had some bumps this spring. That rap is super similar to Trea Turner, who like 20 teams mis evaluated and privately would tell you that. Luckily I got to see him as a college freshman/sophomore so I had more context than most national scouts who just focus on draft eligible guys in their draft year
12:52
If you take a step back and ask your scouts why they didn't like Trea Turner and their answer is I saw 13 plate appearances and didn't like it, that's kinda an insane answer when the guy has tools like that and was breaking records statistically, but was banged up/making swing changes on Team USA and the first half of the spring when like 90% of the scouting looks happened.
12:54
For all the truth that scouting can reveal that can't be replaced by numbers, the lack of context and lack of searching for answers to reconcile something that doesn't make sense can often be maddening. Like the two games you saw can tell a kid's entire athletic future on multi-million dollar decisions and that's a good process.
David
12:54
How did Acuna escape that injury scare with only a mild ACL sprain?  The Baseball Gods are very forgiving and generous
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:54
Def looked worse than that
Louis T.
12:54
Thanks for all your work throughout the season, really awesome stuff. Who would've thought a year ago that Wilcox would be in a position to get more money than Rocker and/or Hankins, and Seigler would be this far ahead of Banfield? A lot really does change in a year
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:54
Indeed it does and that's just in the Georgia preps!
Nick
12:55
Most realistic landing spot for Kelenic in the top 10, if any?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:55
He doesn't really have one. NYM/ATL/OAK all like him but I don't think any of them take him. Maybe PIT?
Jordan
12:55
What would say the probability is, in percentage, of these guys going to school? Rocker, Banfield, Denaburg. Thanks!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:56
55%, 35%, 20%
notacop
12:56
Maryland's Nick Dunn posted surprising power this year, and always hit in the Cape. Is he the type of "safe" college prospect we see climb up boards late in the process?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:56
Possibly, but he also may be a left fielder and his power has dried up some since his breakout Cape campaign, so where we have him ranked is already rounding up for that sort of stuff.
GoPadres
12:56
I see in the Padres list, Gore is a FV 55 and #3. Does he have the upside of a #1? What would you guess the percent chance of that happening is?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:59
We've explained this in a few places, but it's important to note that the pitcher FV's are hedged a bit due to attrition. 55 FV is a trade value grade, in a sense. If he becomes what his tool grades say, he'll be like a 65 FV, but there's a real chance that stuff goes wrong in a big way for a teenager in Low-A, so he's something like the trade value of multiple years of a 55 FV in the big leagues, or something like that. He's in our top 5 pitchers in the minors, if I'm not mistaken. Maybe 15-25% chance of being an ace? That's insanely high when there's 8-12 on Earth at a given time and many stay there for awhile.
Mike
12:59
Are you still taking Adams over Murray at this point?  Why/Why not?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:00
They're ranked back-to-back, so we think they're super close and you could easily make the case for either. Lots of similarities but Adams is bigger and more classically loose in the way scouts tend to prefer, but Murray just performed better than expected in the Big 12.
Alex
1:00
What are the % odds that you will be surprised with how the top ten plays out next week? Like an unforeseen shake up.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:01
You're asking me to predict how likely an unpredictable thing is
Tim
1:01
On a podcast White Sox scouting director Nick Hostetler said he could see the top 3 getting blown up from the order almost everyone is assuming. Have you heard anything like that and if so, what will be the catalyst of the change?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:02
Well Mize not going 1-1 would do that and that seemed like 50/50 a week ago and now is like 90-95% likely to go as expected. I'd guess that's what he meant.
Wayne
1:02
Wow, Braves like Seigler? Would that be at 8 or trying to float him to the second round?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:02
lol he's a Georgia prep player is it really that surprising? And no, not at 8.
Tim
1:02
Is it just me or would Grayson Rodriguez at 10 be kinda disappointing? I would prefer the Pirates take one of Kelenic, Stewart, or Winn. What do you think?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:03
Eric and I don't get the Grayson Rodriguez in the top 15 stuff at all, but TEX and PIT both are apparently really on him and prep righties is where teams tend to have really different opinions
Trevor
1:03
Is there a scenario where Jesus Luzardo is a #1, top of rotation starter?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:03
He has enough stuff/feel so it isn't 0% but less than Gore.
Matt
1:04
You guys seem to be the high guys on Madrigal - so what kind of hitter do you see at peak - Pedroia?  2014 Altuve?  Urias? 2016 Altuve??  I guess what kind of stat line do you see?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:05
He has elements of those guys and Albies but almost certainly isn't as good as Pedroia/Albies/Altuve. Right around Urias, 2-3 win type that may get to 4 wins once or twice and gets to the bigs quickly.
Scott
1:05
Does Robert Neustrom end up going within the top 4 rounds?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:05
I'll say no but more 65/35 no than a hard no
Mac
1:06
The Jose Altuve/Nick Madrigal comps are driving me crazy (he's short!!!).  Has anyone ever looked at Altuve's stats??  Madrigal has no chance to reach any of them.  Like none. EVER.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:06
For those that don't like nuance, may I suggest Mac's point of view
MarlinsGuy
1:06
As the driver of the Albies bandwagon, what are your thoughts on his .309 wOBA in May? Is he settling down into just an average hitter?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:06
Man you guys can rain on any parade RELAX
Largest Adult Son
1:07
Would the Mets be more inclined to take India because they took Mark Vientos out of American Heritage 59th overall last year? Vientos was very young for the draft, but they clearly like prep talent.
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