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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 7/3/19

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Kiley McDaniel

12:57

August 1, 2020

hypo

1:00

A team has a longstanding deal with a J2 kid, but he's stagnated or regressed and the team has an opportunity to better spend the pool allotment elsewhere. Can they just give the kid the money promised without signing him, so it doesn't affect their pool?

Kiley McDaniel

1:01

ummm that doesn't make much sense

what normally happens is the team says to the trainer hey your guy is fat or whatever, they figure out a plan to get him back to where he was and if he never gets there, then they reduce the money to an agreed amount since they aren't getting what they paid for

1:02

but if you pull out completely or try to screw a trainer, you can't make early deals with them again since there's a lot of trust in taking a kid off the market 2 years in advance

Every White Sox Fan

1:02

DYLAN CEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kiley McDaniel

1:02

yes, it sounds like this is exciting for them, judging form all the chat questions/exclamations

Keith

1:03

Do some GM's prefer to avoid pitching in the early rounds of the draft? For example, Billy Eppler has only drafted one pitcher in the top 2 round since taking over as GM of the Angels (Canning in 2017). Perhaps they prefer to purchase many lottery tickets with later picks than use a higher pick on a player more likely to get injured?

Kiley McDaniel

1:03

That would be pretty close to my strategy as well

same with catchers

Chris

1:03

How would you rank the international classes (top 3, bottom 3)

Kiley McDaniel

1:03

i wouldn't

kevinthecomic

1:03

What are we expecting out of Dylan Cease today? AAA numbers not exactly off the charts.

Kiley McDaniel

1:04

7 fastball, 6 cuveball, fringe to avg CH, command is more fringy but plus stuff in the zone needs more control (in the zone) than command (hitting spots)

kevinthecomic

1:04

So the Red Sox announced that Darwinzon will be "working out of the bullpen only" going forward. He's their closer by September, isn't he?

Kiley McDaniel

1:05

we didn't really understand why they kept starting him, because its 40 at best command but it's big stuff from the left side

Ben

1:05

Just curious, if the Yankees wanted to trade Dominguez for SP help this month, could they? Or are internationals subject to the same rules as draftees?

Kiley McDaniel

1:06

I mean they 0% will even consider that but I'm also not sure what the rule is. I would guess it's same as the draft, that you can trade them the day after the World Series.

1:07

Look at who NYY has traded from the farm in the past and the ages of their prospects on THE BOARD. They keep the teenagers with upside and trade the role players at upper levels: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-...

I believe on the offseason list, NYY has over 50% of the list under 20 years old and the next closest team was around 25-30%

PatEdMartin

1:08

What has been the industry's thoughts on the PDP league and how it's been run and afforded evaluation opportunities? Is it likely to continue/expand?

Kiley McDaniel

1:08

Heard the plan is to include even more players in the future than the 80 they have there this year. I was in last week to see them and it was a well-run event with almost all of the top players

1:09

it's not a secret in the industry that MLB is aiming to kill pay-for-play showcase baseball and PDP has been pretty effective in its first year to being a free alternative

georgehermanski

1:11

Prior to the 2011 draft Bubba Starling had what kind of FV and what was his rank?

Kiley McDaniel

1:12

we weren't doing it with this grading scale back then and i was with a team that year and never saw starling but probably a low 50 or high 45 and somewhere 7-10 area

Keith

1:12

How early do teams agree to terms with international prospects? Once there is an agreement in place is it common at all for another team to swoop in with a higher offer or to those players normally not listen to any offers after having a deal in place?

Kiley McDaniel

1:13

There are a handful of 2022 prospects with deals, so somewhere around 3 years is about as far out as it goes, which yes means 13 year olds. You can see why people want this system to change

If the offer is like double the initial offer there is sometimes a renegotiation, but both sides are taking on risk by committing to a deal early, so the number usually stands unless something unusual happens

Lars

1:14

In honor of Dovydas Neverauskas, what are some questions you wish we'd never ask you?

Kiley McDaniel

1:14

anything relating to eastern european puns

john cale

1:14

Does Lora have the most raw power of all the J2 signings?

Kiley McDaniel

1:14

yes, 70 now raw, probably will be 80 one day

Danny

1:15

What are circumstances of scouts/prospect analysts getting a look at J2 guys before next Spring? Do J2 signees go to the Tricky League now and evaluators see them there? Then they go to Fall Instructs where scouts/analysts can see them?

Kiley McDaniel

1:16

Tricky League, sim games at the complex, intstructs in US if you're advanced, DR instructs if you aren't, then normal seasonal schedule after that

john cale

1:16

Re: Futures Game rosters...is Sam Huff really still a 35 FV prospect at this point? The reports on his defense behind the plate are encouraging, and the bat has taken another step forward this season.

Kiley McDaniel

1:17

Well 35+ but we aren't bullish on the D and it's 1B only if that doesn't work. He may be top of the list to be re-evaluated in Cleveland as I saw him in a rain-shortened game only this year

Acuna Moncada

1:17

Any update on Mitch Haniger's ruptured testicle?

Kiley McDaniel

1:17

still gross!

Tom

1:17

Baseball America got so frustrated with the lack of public looks at J2 guys that they threw up their hands and decided not to post any rankings or scouting reports until after instructs. Have you guys found it to be that bad, and did you consider something similar?

Kiley McDaniel

1:26

We've written and podcasted about all the topics they touched on multiple times this year and in the past.

Last year wasn't really any different. Marco Luciano was our top 16-year-old talent and near impossible to get updated reports on. Many teams only saw him a handful of times ever and at least one of those looks everyone got was pretty weak, the latest of which was nearly a full year before he signed. There was more (unfounded) rumor and innuendo around Luciano than hard scouting data and in-person looks that we're accustomed to having in our other rankings.

Eric stayed on top of him in Arizona and confirmed that our projections with Luciano as the top guy in the J2 class were accurate and then even adjusted him up when things starting turning north.

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