JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 7/3/19

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Kiley McDaniel

1:28

This process of saying what we have when we have it and adjusting when stuff changes seems pretty obvious to me. It's also how we handle everything here. Our 2022 draft rankings are changing a couple times a week all summer and our 2020 draft rankings are changing daily. We don't like the process of a giant article with rankings once every few months and only on the most recent draft class. We name-dropped the top 2020 and 2021 J2 prospects in February because we had it and what's the point in warehousing that knowledge?

Eric and I are unique in that we cover/rank the J2, draft, MILB and MLB market and do as much of it based on in-person looks as we can, so I'm not going to act like every person that writes a word about prospects needs to do it exactly the way we do. Readers have choices in who they read just like the writers do in how they do it.

1:29

We respect that they're doing the work but we have the same concerns about the market and came to a very different conclusion. They'll keep writing about these players and so will we and so will Jesse Sanchez at MLB Pipeline and we'll all do it a little differently.

1:30

We just posted our Dylan Cease Called Up feature, written by Eric and with my video from late last year when Cease was in Jacksonville: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/called-up-dylan-cease/

TJ Snedden

1:30

Hello Kiley, long time supporter here. How do you go about scouting Junior College kids?

Kiley McDaniel

1:31

It's pretty tricky since it isn't covered as well so scouts are more secretive about the names and the games often have passed over players that are emerging out of nowhere and often multiple teams don't know the names of the players

but when it's a top 2-3 round guy, it's a priority to get a bunch of reports and see him in person. Rutledge was that guy this year and I tracked him down.

Syndergaardengnomes

1:32

For those of us attending the college USA vs. Cuba game tonight, anything to pay particular attention to?

Kiley McDaniel

1:33

Guibert is the interesting guy in the Cuba lineup, Prieto is an older bat control veteran but it isn't a strong club compared to

for USA, LHP Asa Lacy is starting tonight and is a strong first round type with plus stuff but fringy command/stiffer delivery

Basically the whole team is top 3-4 round types, so can't go wrong

1:34

but 1B Spencer Torkelson, SS Austin Martin (who they're playing in the OF for some reason) are the top bats

RHP Cole Wilcox is probably the top arm, not sure when he's going next

Guest

1:34

Where would Adley Rutschman rank in your top 100? What about Andrew Vaughn?

Kiley McDaniel

1:35

they are on there currently. we added them on draft day and add the J2 guys the day they're eligible to sign, then if they don't sign we'll pull them off. we don't like waiting until things are official b/c these things go as expected at least 90% of the time

Kevin

1:35

You once mentioned models for player makeup in one of your chats, can you explain how teams quantify makeup or players' affect on team chemistry?

Kiley McDaniel

1:36

It's a lot of guessing but you can find ways to grade competitiveness with like a written test and maybe folding in a scout's grade. Definitely not science but probably better than nothing

Derek in LIttle Rock

1:36

After Dominguez at 61, do any of the other J2 guys crack the top 100?

Kiley McDaniel

1:36

Nope, Puason is closest but is somewhere around 150-200 right now

jack

1:36

maitan was fringe top 100-150? huh...the hype was unreal, seems like a bit of revisionism

Kiley McDaniel

1:37

I was with the Braves then, so I wasn't ranking anyone, but I don't think he made an offseason top 100 after he signed but everyone had him within a slot of two on the team lists of a guy who was on. I think Eric had him as a 45 FV?

1:38

If he was ever a 50 FV, it wasn't in the top 100 for us

Turd Ferguson

1:38

Sup Kiley

Kiley McDaniel

1:38

sup bruh

Humberto

1:38

Any looks at UCLA Closer Holden Powell during the Team USA tryouts?

Kiley McDaniel

1:38

didn't see him but I've seen him before, smaller RHP with solid avg stuff and some feel

Carter

1:38

Do (or should?) your grades account for the teams that prospects play for, given differences in their development programs? Like for instance, between two pitchers with identical skillsets, you'd rather the one in the Yankees system than the Orioles system -- does that get reflected?

Kiley McDaniel

1:39

They may be more likely to improve, but I don't think we try to anticipate the improvement, we may move a little quicker when stuff starts happening? We're aware of these things but I don't think it's even perceptible in how we rank the guys, it's more discussion behind the scenes

Guest

1:39

Any early looks at 2020 J2?

Kiley McDaniel

1:40

Top names for 2020 and 2021 are here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/updated-july-2-prospect-rankings/

sounds like the top player or two for 2021 may be a bit stronger, but it's obviously early

Humberto

1:40

Any extended looks at Nick Loftin (Baylor SS) during the Team USA set?

Kiley McDaniel

1:41

Middle infielder with limited power but contact skills. Seems more 3rd-4th round type but could go day one if it turns out it's a 55 or 60 bat. Haven't seen enough yet to say

Tim

1:41

W/r/t deals being done for J2 prospects several years ahead, how does the hard cap effect Cuban defectors? For example, Norge Carlos Vera might be worth a deal of a couple million dollars, but with teams locking up their pools for several periods ahead, how do teams find room for someone like that.

Kiley McDaniel

1:42

Teams intentionally save money if no one strikes their fancy so they have the hammer when a guy pops up, either Cuban or Pacific Rim or late-bloomer. Some teams have $2-3M unused right now for this reason.

jack

1:43

Drew Waters will be on another team in a month

Kiley McDaniel

1:43

I'll set the odds at that under 10%

Big Joe Mufferaw

1:43

Obligatory Jasson Dominguez question. Is Yoan Moncada just a lazy comp (because they look alike with similar tools) or is it legit?

Kiley McDaniel

1:44

Moncada has come up, as has Bo Jackson and Yasiel Puig. There just aren't that many guys with that build/toolset at that age and most of the ones that make some sense are Cuban or football players.

Big Joe Mufferaw

1:44

Is there any chance the Yankees Sign Leiter?

Kiley McDaniel

1:44

Kumar-Leiter will be fun to watch the next 2 years at Vandy

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