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Kiley McDaniel Chat - 8/14/19
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AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:34
Hello from ATL! Scout is outside chasing chipmunks and I'm inside chatting with you people
12:35
Eric just finished up Area Codes and the PG All American game so our summer looks are done and the draft rankings will get tons of names added/moved in the next couple days
12:36
The tops of the lists are done, just adding some names to the bottoms to fill them out some
12:37
We're working on a big project that we'll announce soon and the main other things that's going on now is doing sweeps through systems and moving the obvious prospects around based on new reports, so that will continue to happen this summer
Aristedes Aquino was added today, Thad Ward to the Red Sox, Breidy Encarnacion for Miami, a little shuffling to the CIN list, a couple ARI moves, some new video, etc.
Jerry
12:37
Does Will Smith's early production in the big leagues help vault him at all on THE BOARD?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:38
It's only 80 PA but it's a good indication. We've been the high ones on him for the last two offseasons since we believed in the athleticism and power
randomdude
12:39
SWR appears to be doing more than just holding his own as the youngest arm in A+...What do you need to see from him before he starts getting into the 50FV range?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:40
He's been very good, he'll be in consideration for that. There's a number of 2018 prep draftees at the 45+ waystation to possibly be 50s between now and the offseason
12:41
Brennen Davis, Ryan Weathers, Jordyn Adams, Bo Naylor, SWR. In the Futures Game update we moved up Brice Turang, Jordan Groshans, Xavier Edwards, Triston Casas
Xolo
12:41
Do you take the Padres' aggressive promoting habits into consideration when figuring out FV or is Patiño making it to AA at 19 as impressive as it would be in any other organization?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:41
Making it to a level doesn't really mean much if you don't perform, so the SDP approach doesn't do much for value, unless it's what looks to be an early promotion and they perform really well
Lars
12:42
Ronny Mauricio is the top-ranked player on the Board whose ETA postdates Wander Franco, so in some vague way you're predicting he'll follow Franco as the #1 prospect in baseball. Do you think he's actually the top candidate, or would you bet on someone else?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:45
Hmmm hadn't thought of it that way but you appear to be correct. Bobby Witt and Marco Luciano are right there, George Valera is a threat, Jasson Dominguez lingers, Julio Rodriguez, Riley Greene, C.J. Abrams. Brett Baty is a sneaky possibility. There isn't a super obvious 2020 draft prospect to be the top one from that class, but the 2021 class has a few, with Brady House the headliner.
Luis Patino is also there, but I would always bet against pitchers
12:47
And elite college players for 2019 or 2020 that could be #1 types may get promoted too fast
12:48
Kumar Rocker in 2021 could be a fit, though
Gerge
12:48
Bryan Reynolds is NOT what we thought he was. If he were magically still eligible, where do you think he'd rank on the Board? Thanks!
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:51
He's a now pretty proven solid average defensive LF with what looks like solid average offense when you strip out the luck and try to figure out the true talent level from this hot streak. Seems like he's in the 2.0 to 3.5 WAR area, so he'd be a 55 FV until we see a little bit more
Steve
12:51
Dustin May averaging about 8 K/9 through his first 3 starts. Moving forward would you expect higher, lower, or about even with that 8 K/9 mark?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:51
I'd guess between 9 and 10 during his peak years
Uncle Spike
12:51
Hey Kiley, is their any publicly available tool or statistic you use to evaluate pitching prospects across all minor league levels.  For hitters we have wRC+ but I'm not aware of anything for pitchers.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:53
well wRC+ is limited too since it isn't park adjusted in the minors, doesn't strip out BABIP luck, doesn't include speed/defense. But yes it is a very good tool for like 90% of offensive prospect hitting measurement.
12:55
For pitchers I just look at the peripherals and xFIP is the single number that's most useful and encapsulates all those things. It's still not perfect at rating extreme FB/popup guys since we don't have perfect batted ball definitions and it's more likely in the lower minors to see guys with a 4 xFIP and 6 ERA for multiple years because they can get strikeouts but mix in too many meatballs, so they seem unlikely but they just aren't that good yet. And usage/pitch target location can be tweaked and spike xFIP in a way that isn't linear without physical tools changing, but that's the same as wRC+ and swing/approach changes
(I think that was too detailed?)
Mickey Callaway
12:56
Would your rather have Luis Santana or JD Davis?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:56
we leaned Santana at the time of the trade but Davis has had a nice year, so now I'm leaning that way
PatEdMartin
12:56
2020 prospect Milan Tolentino was the first pick in the 2019 LMB draft a few weeks ago.  Does that impact his amateur status in the US at all?  Is it common for the LMB to draft US high schoolers?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:57
I'll admit I don't know what the LMB draft is and a quick google didn't help much
Oh wait that must be the Mexican League
I haven't heard of that happening before and I can't imagine he's going to play there when he could sign or go to UCLA, so I don't think it matters?
Sully
12:58
Does Alek Manoah have the potential to be a #1 starter? His numbers in Vancouver have been ridiculous.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:59
Pure stuff, possibly. We project more #3 with a chance to progress in the feel aspects and get to #2, though we're sticklers for that sort of thing since we think there's no more than 10 aces in the bigs at any given time and most of them hold the title for awhile
Like there may only be 5-6 pitchers in the minors now where we'd say there's a real shot they're on of those 10 MLB aces at some point
1:00
Obviously more of them have a greater than 0% chance since Cliff Lee was on waivers like 4 years before he became an ace
1:01
So maybe our definition is guys with a 10% or greater chance? maybe more than that?
Nope
1:01
Could you slap some tool grades on Trey Harris? I get that he's not a future star, but it's hard to get any sense of his athleticism, defensive value, hit/power projections etc.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:01
squatty framed LF without a plus tool but he's hitting and has potential 20 HR power
1:02
That's basically the same as Dustin Peterson who was hitting until he wasn't, to give you an idea of the margin for error
Jared
1:02
If you're the Braves, do you exercise Teheran's $12 MM option after this season? It seems like he pitches with lots of traffic, but he does go every 5th day.
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