JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 8/14/19

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Kiley McDaniel

1:02

They could, but you could also decline, wait the whole offseason and maybe scoop him up for like 1 year $6M, so I don't think they will

Fire Extinguisher

1:02

What did I do to deserve that?!

Kiley McDaniel

1:03

you know what you did

RyanW

1:03

Any plans to add either Jack Herman or Mason Martin to THE BOARD? Need something to put to distract me from all the post-ASB losing the Pirates have been doing, man

Kiley McDaniel

1:03

Both on the list to consider, both striking out a good bit but performing as corner guys young for the level which is probably enough to go from 35 to list quality

benji

1:04

Hey Kiley, I've often seen you guys lower a prospect's ranking because he's R/R 1B, and I understand that's because the offensive bar is so much higher at 1B. The 1B part makes sense, but I don't understand why R/R is a further negative. It would seem that lefties experience much greater platoon splits and are more likely to be platooned so they would be lower, i.e. Logan Morrison, Nate Lowe, and many many others. Thoughts?

Kiley McDaniel

1:04

Well a platoon LHH 1B gets to play most of the time and the platoon RHH 1B might get cut for a utility player that's RHH and can play every position

1:05

same with "backup 2B that can hit a little" losing out to the "can't really hit but can really play SS and run"

1:06

and both lose out these days to the "can really hit and can weekend at bernie's in LF"

HxHxH

1:06

Kolby Allard has been sitting at 91-94 in his two starts in the Rangers system since coming over from Atlanta. Reports at the time of the deal had him at 89-91. If this velocity bump is legit, how does it impact his FV?

Kiley McDaniel

1:06

We'll have to see if the command is still there at 92-94 but it's interesting

1:07

he hit 96 in one inning at the PG All American game when he was 16 and now 6 years later it's magically coming back

BlueJayMatt

1:07

Buy or sell: Anthony Kay as a mid-rotation starter eventually.

Kiley McDaniel

1:07

I tend to sell when it's a sub-50 FV type with a TJ and that could easily fit in a lefty relief role given his profile

Joey

1:07

Hi Kiley.

Kiley McDaniel

1:07

Sup

bowser

1:07

how does bowser's perfect game showing change his status?

Kiley McDaniel

1:08

I wasn't there, so you can ask Eric but I get the impression it's still a RHH 3B/1B with power but contact is just ok, so it's more 35+

Mr. Marple

1:08

Is there a particular age at which you start weighting stats more heavily than tools? (Or: how does it depend on position, pedigree, etc.?)

Kiley McDaniel

1:09

AA and AAA is where it becomes more important both because they've been at a pro level for a few years and are at least 21 and the pitching resembles MLB pitching

before AA and/or age 21 the performance can be weighed a good bit less

Jeff

1:09

Do you ever account for an organizations player development capacity when assigning FVs?

Kiley McDaniel

1:10

Nope. If something persistent like the Dodgers changing a swing and unlocking power happens anew, we're more likely to move the guy up quickly than if it's a team where this never happens, but that's really just like getting ahead of a couple weeks of lag on an in-season ranking.

The guy can't be traded, have nothing change, then go up/down because now magicians are going to tell him the secrets of whatever. There's plenty of instances where a tailor made development project doesn't work

Jason

1:11

How important is breaking ball RPM? Been finally checking statcast data on baseball savant and it seems like a lot of pitchers who are considered to have good or great breaking balls rate in low or medium percentile for curve spin and or break. I know the lower RPM equals more "sink" on like fastballs and change ups, so just curious if similar applies to breaking balls or if it's more on how late the break is than how much.

Kiley McDaniel

1:11

Well there's other factors at play here

pure spin matters more for CB than SL

1:12

since a CB is more 12-to-6 shaped and so more of the spin, generally speaking, will be on the axis to make the ball break

but we also know that some curveballs aren't spin efficient so the extra spin doesn't mean much when ay only 30% of it is efficient and leads to break

1:13

so like a 100% efficient 12-to-6 breaker with 2000 rpm and a 65% efficient slurve with 2500 rpm would appear just from rpm to better, but knowing only those numbers, the 2000 rpm pitch will break more

1:14

and with sliders you're basically going for a 0% efficient gyrospin/bullet spin/spiral to the ball, so spin is generally good in that a higher spin, same efficiency pitch will have more bite, but you have the same issue where quality of spin can make a big difference

1:15

and since there's less movement, sliders tend to be better when there's similar spin to the fastball and other sorts of deception whereas curveballs tend to be better with individual characteristics like velocity and break and spin

Shameless Cardinals Homer

1:15

I'm in the fitness industry, and it amazes me that MiLB-aged players can be out of shape. Being a 16-25yo male is literally the equivalent of being on steroids, so all you have to do is LOOK at weights and you'll grow muscle (barely an exaggeration), assuming you eat enough. And you can even get away with eating way too much (to a point) until your mid-20s. I know diet control is on teams' radars, but what about weight training? Wouldn't it be in their best interests to keep kids around all offseason near the weight room to help them make the most of their natural growth years?

Kiley McDaniel

1:16

Well in-season they're at the field playing everyday so fatigue becomes an issue but you'd also be surprised how many elite baseball players don't do a ton of weight training and create lazy habits then have to adjust when they finally fail because their eye-hand needs some improved raw strength

1:17

there's obviously way less of the "fat, non-athlete that falls out of bed and hits" now than there used to be, but a vein of that still exists since baseball is less tied to pure athleticism than other sports

Rusty

1:17

Any word on how Noah Song has looked in Lowell? The numbers looks good, but obviously they can be misleading.

Kiley McDaniel

1:18

Up to 98, fastball heavy but Eric has seen the slider and it's at least above average

and haven't heard anything new about avoiding military service

Fossil

1:18

How often do you bump into rookie scouts who are starstruck the first time they recognize you?

Kiley McDaniel

1:18

lol wouldn't say starstruck but i am pleasantly surprised how many come up and say hello

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