JotCast | Kiley McDaniel Chat

Kiley McDaniel Chat - 8/15/18

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Kiley McDaniel

12:30

Now those early returns aren't always indicative of what will happen. But Vlad Jr was the top 16 year old in his class, Soto was a clear top 10-20 player, etc.

12:31

And, for NYY in particular, lately they've tended to lock up some guys early, not get the tippy top bonus types, then scoop up some guys late that either emerged late or had deals fall thru, while other teams are out of money. Cash trading for extra pool space also helps with that in their case.

Anthony

12:31

Nationals are down to 25% postseason odds. Should/will they trade Bryce? Relatedly, do front offices put any stock into the narrative that a player is tougher to re-sign if traded midseason?

Kiley McDaniel

12:33

They should, I don't think they will. I think in this case, there's a little of that and also there's probably some ownership not wanting to trade a franchise guy in general. A 5% increase in the odds he may stay could be worth not getting the trade return...not sure I feel that way, but I could see them connecting those dots.

12:34

Do you have a comp for Alex Kirilloff? What's his upside?

Kiley McDaniel

12:35

Don't see a perfect one, but it's easy plus hit and plus raw with maybe 55 in game power, solid in right field. Just pick an elite LHH with hit over power and you're pretty close.

Zack

12:35

When is the next Top 100 prospects list coming out?

Kiley McDaniel

12:35

We just put one out like two weeks ago

12:36

Well, not an article per se, but THE BOARD completely changed two weeks ago and all the players are updated per the trades

12:36

Touki was fun on Monday. He was throwing something that registered as a split, but I don't recall seeing that ever written about. I'm guessing it was the changeup? Seemed like a good pitch.

Kiley McDaniel

12:36

It's a changeup, but the various algorithms always classified it as a split in the minors. It's a 60 pitch at times, sometimes throws it too hard.

Tumbler, Whiskey

12:37

What do you have on CF Alek Thomas? He's been hitting consistently since he signed. What's the overall profile/ceiling there?

Kiley McDaniel

12:37

Lower ceiling guy, but clear upside to be a regular, long track record in high school, advanced feel to hit and play defense, plus wheels. A bunch more here: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=0&pos=all...

Humpty

12:38

Madrigal has K'ed 2 times in 100 PAs. Wow.

Kiley McDaniel

12:39

We aren't always right, but we told you he was good! https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/could-a-5-foot-8-second-baseman-be-dra...

v2micca

12:41

I have never heard of a PTBNL being the number 4 guy in your system. Its normally organizational filler. What happened?

Kiley McDaniel

12:42

Often it's a way to get more looks at a few players before you decide. I would guess (not sure) that TB had a couple guys they liked near the top of PIT's system and wanted to make sure, while PIT was fine with any of that group.

Stuafoo

12:42

Do you have any details on the Ms recent scout firings?

Kiley McDaniel

12:43

Pro and amateur, every indication is all the positions will be replaced by different scouts. Believe it was 7 total, including one international scout.

Wander Franco

12:43

Is the baseball world overreacting to my rookie league performance, or are my tools really i really that good? I mean, top 20 overall already? Not that I'm complaining.

Kiley McDaniel

12:44

You should have more self confidence bc you're really good. Similar to the earlier Royce Lewis question, all the elements are there for a guy that shoots thru the minors, but some teams like to take it slower, even with those types of players.

Vslyke

12:44

The Pirates gearing up for the NL Central over the next couple of years seems like a terrible decision. Is this a decision being imposed by ownership?

Kiley McDaniel

12:47

There's a lot of theories out there and you're hitting on one of them. I can say that PIT would not even entertain discussing their top prospects for years, even for top trade candidates and when they had a better MLB team than they do right now. So, this was unusual to see three of them traded at once, especially after they sold on a similar talent in Gerrit Cole before the season. Why they did this now is unclear, but it's definitely raising questions around the industry and baseball people love to gossip.

12:47

What is the lowest FV youve given a player who turned out to be a regular and who was it? Or one example if there are too many

Kiley McDaniel

12:49

I've only been using the FV system for a few years, but I think a 40+ on Matt Duffy the year before he put up 4.4 WAR is the most egregious example. Looks pretty fluky now and no one saw it coming either, but don't like being that wrong.

Spicy Boy

12:50

When a team agrees to a seemingly lop-sided trade (ex: STL agreeing to trade Pham to TB), how often is it that the team making the "bad" end of the deal knows something about the players involved (ex: maybe Pham's eyesight is bad again, or maybe Justin Williams posts elite EV's) that would greatly change public perception of the deal if that information weren't private?

Kiley McDaniel

12:51

I get the impression that STL wanted to clear space for O'Neill/Bader and dump Pham before he regressed or got old/expensive and there just wasn't a huge market for him. TB is a value shopper so they jumped in. STL has also had some luck changing swings quickly, like O'Neill, so maybe Williams was a guy they are higher on than most since he's a flatter plane hitter. That trade seems weird at first glance and less weird the more you look into it.

John

12:51

Don't look now but Tyler Kolek is finally pitching again in the NYPL! What do you think of him at this point?

Kiley McDaniel

12:51

He sure throws hard

Bobby Bradley's 40-time

12:52

Are there any notable risers/fallers since the draft due to new information/scouting that wasn't available beforehand?

Kiley McDaniel

12:54

Nothing too crazy. RHP Michael Grove, the 2nd rounder for the Dodgers from West Virginia, missed the last year plus due to TJ and wasn't a big name or heavily scouted before that, so he wasn't on our radar and probably should've been. Since he wasn't hyped in the media, teams were shy about talking about him and drumming up more interest. Mitchell White, another Dodgers pick, was kinda like that too. Cory Abbott with the Cubs was another example from 2017.

The Ghost of Wade Boggs

12:54

Isn't saying future FV kinda defeat the purpose of FV in the first place? That's kinda like saying PIN number

Kiley McDaniel

12:55

I will say we don't use FV for the future grade on a tool but I've noticed a lot of you do. You can do what you want, but we use "FV" only for that one number and some version of future or future grade or whatever for specific tool grades

Iunno

12:56

Where would Baz rank on the "Prospects traded at the trade deadline"?

Kiley McDaniel

12:56

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ranking-the-prospects-traded-at-the-de...

Would be 2nd of the true prospects, behind Francisco Mejia

3rd on this list, behind Meadows.

Jim

12:57

Twitter keeps having the Braves send Ian Anderson away in trades over guys like Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint. Is he the most likely Braves SP prospect to be moved this offseason?

Kiley McDaniel

12:57

I'd still guess it's Allard or Wilson, if they can pick anyone to deal from that top tier, because their ceilings are lower and they are performing, minus Allard's short MLB look.

Mario

12:57

How bright is the Rays future?

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